Industry

Shell forecasts 60% rise in LNG demand by 2040

Economic growth in Asia is the main factor driving growth in LNG demand. (Image source: Adobe Stock)

Shell forecasts that global demand for LNG will rise by around 60% by 2040, in its newly-issued Shell LNG Outlook 2025

LNG demand is now expected to reach 630-718mn tonnes a year by 2040, largely driven by economic growth in Asia, the need to decarbonise heavy industry and transport and the impact of energy-intense artificial intelligence.

Global LNG trade grew by only 2mn tonnes in 2024, the lowest annual increase in 10 years, to reach 407mn tonnes, due to constrained new supply development. New LNG supply is limited until the second half of 2025, but more than 170mn tonnes of new LNG supply is set to be available by 2030, helping to meet stronger gas demand, especially in Asia. However, start-up timings of new LNG projects are uncertain, with new projects facing multiple challenges, such as regulatory uncertainty, geopolitical tensions and supply chain issues.

“Upgraded forecasts show that the world will need more gas for power generation, heating and cooling, industry and transport to meet development and decarbonisation goals,” Tom Summers, senior vice president for Shell LNG Marketing and Trading, said.

“LNG will continue to be a fuel of choice because it’s a reliable, flexible and adaptable way to meet growing global energy demand.”

China is significantly increasing its LNG import capacity and aims to add piped gas connections for 150mn people by 2030 to meet increasing demand. India is also moving ahead with building natural gas infrastructure and connecting 30mn people over the next five years.

In the marine sector, a growing order book of LNG-powered vessels will see demand from this market rise to more than 16mn tonnes a year by 2030, up 60% from the previous forecast, with around half the vessels on order in the international maritime market being LNG fuelled. Longer term, existing gas infrastructure could be used to import bio-LNG or synthetic LNG and also repurposed for the import of green hydrogen. LNG is becoming a cost-effective fuel for shipping and road transport, bringing down emissions today and offering pathways to incorporate lower-carbon sources such as bio-LNG or synthetic LNG; around one in five trucks sold in China today are LNG-fuelled.

Europe will continue to need LNG into the 2030s to balance the growing share of intermittent renewables in its power sector and to ensure energy security. In the longer term, existing natural gas infrastructure could be used to import bio-LNG or synthetic LNG and be repurposed for the import of green hydrogen.

Significant growth in LNG supply will come from Qatar and the USA. The USA is set to extend its lead as the world’s largest LNG exporter, potentially reaching 180mn tonnes a year by 2030 and accounting for a third of global supply. Qatar and the USA are together likely to account for 60% of global supply by 2025.

Shell to step up liquefaction capacity

At the International Energy Week (IE Week) Conference hosted by the Energy Institute in London, Cederic Cremers, executive director at Shell, highlighted the increasing importance of LNG in the company’s own portfolio, saying that between now and 2030, Shell is growing its liquefaction capacity by 20-30%, the fastest it has ever grown in a five-year period. The company is progressing projects in Canada, where it is aiming to start LNG exports from its LNG Canada project this year, Nigeria, and Qatar. The company is also a partner in the Ruwais LNG project in the UAE. Between 2030 and 2040 Shell is looking at a potential next phase at LNG Canada, as well as a fourth train in Oman with the government and partners, on the back of new gas discoveries. Shell also in December signed a project development agreement with Argentina’s state-run oil company YPF to advance the development of the Argentina LNG project. Other options are also on the cards, Cremers said.

The importance of LNG as a transition fuel was a key theme at IE Week. Dr Fatih Birol, executive director of the IEA, commented that the huge amount of LNG set to come on to the market between 2026 and 2028, mainly from the USA and Qatar, is likely to result in the gas market shifting from a sellers’ to a buyers’ market.

OOMCO boosts SMEs with new contracts

The contracts awarded cover a wide range of industrial sectors. (Image source: OOMCO)

Oman Oil Marketing Company (OOMCO) has awarded contracts to nine Omani Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs), worth OMR 1.45 million (US$3.77mn) across multiple sectors, including logistics, technology, infrastructure, and retail

The agreements are in line with OOMCO’s commitment to supporting local businesses, enhancing In-Country Value (ICV), and contributing to Oman Vision 2040.

They provide sustainable growth opportunities for local enterprises, helping them to expand their expertise and enhance their competitiveness in the market.

Digital growth

The awarded contracts cover a wide range of industries and services including retail, technology, engineering, and facility management. In the retail and customer service sector, the agreements include maintenance services for Ahlain shops and the introduction of a Pick-Up and Drop-Off (PUDO) logistics service.

Digital transformation initiatives include the integration of a QR-based ordering platform at Café Amazon and the implementation of Know Your Customer (KYC) verification within the OOMCO Mobile App, further strengthening the company’s digital capabilities.

In the engineering and infrastructure sector, the contracts cover the installation of above-ground steel tanks as well as fire engine troubleshooting and maintenance, ensuring the highest standards of safety and operational excellence. Facility management and maintenance agreements include essential upkeep for OOMCO’s headquarters.

Tarik Mohammed Al Junaidi, CEO of Oman Oil Marketing Company, said, "Our partnership with Omani SMEs underscores our dedication to fostering local talent and strengthening the national economy. By awarding contracts across diverse industries, we are not only creating business opportunities but also driving innovation, efficiency, and sustainable growth in line with Oman Vision 2040."

Rystad whitepaper highlights Middle East NOCs' resilience

Middle East NOCs are proving resilient. (Image source: Adobe Stock)

A new whitepaper from Rystad Energy highlights the plans of the Middle East NOCs to ramp up production and upstream investments, as well as their resilience in the energy transition and different oil demand scenarios

In the NOC/INOC Corporate Strategy Benchmarking whitepaper, Volume 1: Oil & Gas, Rystad Energy notes that Aramco, with its focus on enhancing production at mature oilfields and ramping up gas production, will continue to see upstream investments rise, recording capex of US$29bn in the first nine months of 2024 alone. Rystad forecasts QatarEnergy will invest between US$14-15bn per year over the next few years as it continues to invest heavily in the North Field gas field and expanding LNG capacity, while ADNOC’s expenditure, which reached US$5.7bn last year, is forecast to increase given its target of 5mn bpd production capacity by 2027. The Hail & Ghasha offshore development project, which is set to produce more than 1.5bn standard cubic feet per day (bscfd) of gas before the end of the decade, and the Ruwais LNG project are key ADNOC focuses.

Rystad notes the resilience of the Middle East NOCs in different energy demand scenarios, particularly given their focus on LNG, a key energy transition fuel. It adds that Aramco and ADNOC’s low-cost portfolio and short-cycle return on investments are key factors ensuring their competitiveness.

QatarEnergy is heavily expanding its LNG production, with an eye on longterm demand from Asia, and is forecast to operate nearly 120mn tonnes per annum (Mtpa) of LNG capacity by 2035, with its North Field projects targeting 126 Mtpa by 2027. Qatar could account for 20% of global supply after 2030, Rystad predicts, with continuing incremental expansion, its low breakeven and existing infrastructure ensuring dominance in the LNG market.

ADNOC's LNG capacity is set to expand significantly with the Ruwais LNG project (9.6 Mtpa) starting up by 2028, which will more than double ADNOC's current LNG production capacity, while Aramco has acquired a 49% stake in LNG-focused MidOcean, which has interests in a portfolio of Australian integrated LNG projects, and a 35% stake in Peru LNG.

The whitepaper also notes the focus of the Middle East NOCs on international expansion, with QatarEnergy acquiring multiple blocks in Namibia’s Orange Basin from TotalEnergies and Chevron, and exploration assets in Egypt from Chevron and ExxonMobil; and ADNOC acquiring gas and LNG assets in Africa and the Caucasus, including a 10% stake in Mozambique LNG, and a 30% stake in Azerbaijan’s Absheron gas field from Socar and TotalEnergies. While Aramco has expanded its international LNG portfolio, with its stake in MidOcean as well as acquiring a 25% stake in Port Arthur LNG in the US from Sempra.

Enermech secures Qatar contract extension

The company will provide leak testing and flange management services for the Al-Shaheen oilfield, offshore Qatar. (Image source: Adobe Stock)

Mechanical services company EnerMech has secured a five-year contract extension to provide Qatar’s North Oil Company (NOC) with leak testing and flange management services, for the Al Shaheen oilfield, Qatar’s largest oilfield and one of the world’s largest in the world in terms of oil in place

The contract covers a range of services, including bolt tensioning and torquing, pipe freezing and training.

The company says its strong relationship with NOC, going back to 2017, was a key factor in retaining the contract, along with its record of past performance, knowledge of NOC’s assets and availability of resource within the country.

EnerMech, which has a presence in UAE, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Iraq and Oman, sees attractive growth prospects in Qatar and the wider Middle East.

Charles ‘Chuck’ Davison Jr., EnerMech CEO, said, “By securing an extension to an already long-term project is testament to the commitment, hard work and professionalism of the Qatar team. I would like to commend Sean Lawless, country manager for Qatar for establishing EnerMech as a leading provider of leak testing and flange management services in the region, which puts us in a position to continue the evolution of EnerMech in the Gulf.”

Dan Collins, regional director, AMEC, said, “This arrangement is an important scope of work for EnerMech and highlights our expertise and depth of knowledge in the market. As 2025 progresses, we are eager to build on our strong footing in Qatar and continue to work with our clients to provide the best-in-class provisions.”

The Al Shaheen oilfield is a production field off the north-east coast of Qatar, 80 km north of the capital, Doha. The field is operated by North Oil Company, a joint venture between QatarEnergy (70%) and TotalEnergies (30%). In early 2024, QatarEnergy awarded four Engineering, Procurement, Construction, and Installation (EPCI) contracts worth more than US$6bn for the next development phase of the Al-Shaheen field, which will increase production by around 100,000bpd, as part of Project Ru’ya, which will develop more than 550mn bbl of oil and will be executed over a period of five years, with first oil expected in 2027. The project includes the drilling of more than 200 wells and the installation of a new centralised process complex, nine remote wellhead platforms, and associated pipelines.

TWMA to provide waste management services for Egypt project

TWMA will provide waste management services from its Alexandria waste management facility. (Image source: TWMA)

Drilling waste management specialist, TWMA, has partnered with a multinational energy operator to provide waste management services for an exploration project in the Mediterranean sea, offshore Egypt.

Under the two-year contract, TWMA will provide comprehensive onshore waste management services from its Alexandria waste processing facility and recently opened offices in Cairo. The scope of work includes the management, transportation, treatment, and disposal of all waste streams including drill cuttings, and features oil recovery through TWMA’s RotoMill technology. It also involves tank cleaning and other cargo carrying units for supply vessels.

The project aligns with the Egyptian government’s vision to enhance natural gas supplies to meet increasing local domestic and industrial demand, expanding export capabilities and the Egyptian economy on a wider scale.

The collaboration could also lead to future initiatives between TWMA and the operator, with potential opportunities for offshore processing of drilling waste and other high-potential projects.

This contract follows TWMA’s recent US$70mn contract win in the Middle East with a leading UAE operator, as the company seeks to expand its operations across the Middle East and North Africa region.

TWMA’s CEO Halle Aslaksen said, “We’re thrilled to embark on this collaboration and contribute to the economic and industrial development of Egypt’s energy sector. TWMA looks forward to a successful partnership that will pave the way for future opportunities in Egypt and across the region. We have worked in collaboration with this operator for over 20 years through various successful projects, and we look forward to continuing this trusted relationship as we embark on our first exploration project in Egypt.”

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