The agreements could see US$60bn of US investments in UAE energy projects. (Image source: ADNOC)

ADNOC has announced a number of agreements with US energy majors which could see US$60bn of US investments in UAE energy projects

The agreements were made during the state visit of US President Donald Trump and reinforce the shared commitment of the UAE and US to maintaining global energy security and the stability of energy markets.

The agreements include a field development plan with ExxonMobil and INPEX/JODCO to sustainably expand the production capacity of Abu Dhabi’s Upper Zakum offshore field, leveraging AI and industry-leading technologies as well as the deep expertise of the three companies. The plan will upgrade the Upper Zakum’s infrastructure to include AI-enabled remote operations, receive power from the UAE’s clean energy grid to reduce emissions, and enable the use of artificial islands for drilling activities to enhance environmental protection.

ADNOC also signed a strategic collaboration agreement with Occidental to explore increasing the production capacity of Shah Gas field’s capacity to 1.85 billion standard cubic feet per day (bscfd) of natural gas, from 1.45 bscfd, and accelerating the deployment of advanced technologies in the field. This will provide more gas for domestic industrial growth and LNG for export.

XRG, ADNOC’s global energy investment company, is looking to boost investments in US energy focusing on expanding gas, LNG, specialty chemicals and energy infrastructure. XRG signed a framework agreement with Occidental subsidiary 1PointFive to evaluate a potential investment in a direct air capture (DAC) project in Kleberg County, Texas. The facility would remove up to 500,000 tons of CO₂ per year using commercial-scale DAC technology, with XRG considering a capital commitment of up to one-third of the project’s total development cost. Occidental and ADNOC have been discussing opportunities to collaborate on carbon capture, utilisation and storage projects in the United States and UAE since signing a memorandum of understanding in 2023.

Abu Dhabi’s Supreme Council for Financial and Economic Affairs (SCFEA) also granted a new unconventional oil exploration concession to US-based EOG Resources Inc. (EOG), for Unconventional Onshore Block 3, which covers a 3,609 sq km area within the Al Dhafra region of Abu Dhabi. It is the first award of its kind to a US company. ADNOC has the option to join a subsequent production concession.

H.E. Dr. Sultan Al Jaber, Minister of Industry and Advanced Technology, ADNOC managing director and Group CEO, said: “The deep-rooted bilateral relationship between the UAE and the US is underpinned by our shared commitment to enabling energy abundance and we are reinforcing this commitment through these agreements with US energy majors. We see significant opportunities for further UAE-US partnerships across the energy-AI nexus and we look forward to working with our American partners to unlock long-term sustainable value and drive socioeconomic progress.”

The Louisiana LNG project will enable Woodside to operate over 5% of LNG supply, according to the company.

Aramco is looking to acquire an equity interest in Woodside Energy’s Louisiana LNG project, along with LNG offtake

The two companies have signed a collaboration agreement to explore global opportunities, which also include potential collaboration in lower-carbon ammonia.

Woodside CEO Meg O’Neill commented, “We are excited to explore new opportunities with Aramco. This collaboration aligns with Woodside’s strategic vision to build a diverse and resilient global portfolio. It leverages our growing relationship with one of the world’s leading integrated energy and chemicals companies, to explore new opportunities which deliver value for both parties.

“It is also another demonstration of the ongoing interest Louisiana LNG is generating among high-quality potential investors, following our recent agreement with Stonepeak to acquire a 40% interest in the project’s infrastructure holding company.”

The Louisiana LNG project and export terminal envisages the construction of five LNG plants through four phases. Woodside announced a final investment decision to develop the foundational phase, a three-train, 16.5 million tonnes per annum LNG development, on 29 April. Woodside is targeting first LNG in 2029. Development of Louisiana LNG will enable Woodside to deliver approximately 24 Mtpa from its global LNG portfolio in the 2030s, and operate over 5% of global LNG supply, according to the company.

The move also represents a further step in Aramco’s strategy to become a leading global LNG player and grow its gas portfolio to meet the rising global demand for lower-carbon forms of energy as the energy transition progresses. It follows the signing of an agreement with Sempra last year relating to LNG offtake of 5.0 million tonnes per annum (Mtpa) from the Port Arthur LNG Phase 2 expansion project, where it will also potentially have a 25% participation in the project-level equity of Phase 2, and the acquisition of a strategic minority stake in MidOcean.

The collaboration agreement was signed in Riyadh at the Saudi-US Investment Forum attended by Saudi Arabian Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman and US President Donald Trump. Aramco signed of 34 MoUs with major US companies, covering collaborations and partnerships in areas including LNG, fuels, chemicals, emission-reduction technologies, AI and other digital solutions, manufacturing, asset management, short-term cash investments, and procurement of materials, equipment, and services.

US tariffs are a critical concern for the oil and gas industry.

US tariffs are expected to remain the key concern for the oil and gas industry in 2025, followed by geopolitics and supply chain, according to a new report from leading data and analytics company GlobalData

Tariff-induced trade tensions have the potential to depress the US and global economy in the near term, thereby affecting energy demand. It is therefore important for the industry to assess the impact of macroeconomic themes of tariffs, along with geopolitics, and supply chain, while charting its growth strategy, says GlobalData. Also highlighted are traditional oil and gas themes such as LNG, shale and integrated refineries, the impact of which companies need to be aware of to remain competitive in the energy market.

GlobalData’s report, “Top 20 Oil & Gas Themes - 2025,” identifies the top 20 themes that will affect the oil and gas industry in 2025. As well as macro themes, those relating to the transition towards clean energy, such as renewables, low-carbon hydrogen, carbon capture and storage (CCS), and electric vehicles (EV) are expected to have a potential impact on oil and gas operations in 2025 and beyond, while AI, blockchain, cloud computing, cybersecurity, IoT, and robotics are the technology themes high on the agenda this year.

Ravindra Puranik, Oil and Gas Analyst at GlobalData, commented, “The US government initially imposed hefty import tariffs on most countries in line with their respective trade deficits, which were later normalised at 10% for 90 days. As a result, the global economic forecast is clouded by the frequent changes in the US tariffs and the prospect of retaliatory rate increases from affected trading partners, especially China.”

The industry has largely recovered from the geopolitical developments since 2022 that had significantly impacted global supply chains. While global oil demand is anticipated to grow in 2025, fuelled by consistent economic expansion in Asia, the stability of supply hinges on geopolitical risks and the production strategies of OPEC+ nations.

Puranik added, “A resolution to the conflict in Ukraine, along with incremental increases in OPEC+ output post-April 2025, could ensure adequate market supply, even in the face of stringent US sanctions on Iran and Venezuela.

“GlobalData research shows that companies that invest in the right themes become success stories; those that miss the big themes ultimately fail. Given that so many themes are disruptive, it is very easy to be blindsided by industry outsiders invading the sector. In this scenario, it is important to understand the biggest themes in the industry and how they could help companies thrive in the rapidly changing energy dynamics.”

Global oil demand forecast. (Image source: Rystad Energy)

US President Trump’s visit to the Middle East has the potential for significantly impacting oil markets, according to energy consultancy Rystad Energy

Brent oil is hovering around US$65/bbl, buoyed by progress made on US-China trade negotiations, which have also eroded some demand side pessimism. In the Middle East, supply side factors will take centre stage, with possible rollbacks of restrictions on Iranian crude exports.

Rystad Energy believes that OPEC+ will continue to add supply to the market while supply elsewhere is reduced due to US sanctions and tariffs.

The energy consultancy has reduced its oil demand growth prediction from 1.1mn bpd to 0.7mn bpd on the basis that there will still be some lasting impact on trade flows from the tariffs, even if there are rollbacks. Growth would be led by Asia, and a need for stock build-up ahead of the summer and for geopolitical security could be additional growth factors.

On the supply side, Rystad Energy estimates that the core OPEC eight members’ reversal of planned cuts is due to the declining contributions of OPEC+ members such as Iran, Venezuela and Mexico, owing to sanctions and tariffs. Declining supply from other members is also balancing out the OPEC+ unwind without causing a price slide. On the non-OPEC+ side, the expectation of US crude production in 2025 has been revised downwards to approximately 0.3mn bpd, while new projects in Brazil have the potential to add around 0.4mn bpd in 2025 and 2026.

Overall, Rystad Energy analysis signals upside in oil prices and refinery margins towards the summer.

Mukesh Sahdev, senior vice president, global head oil commodity markets – oil at Rystad Energy commented, “President Trump’s Middle Eastern tour is timed very well, as it is just ahead of Memorial Day weekend, when prices at the pump will play a key role in driving demand. Preventing any oil price spikes in the summer will likely remain central to the president’s agenda.

“Refinery crude demand is on a growth curve between May and August, signalling a more bullish oil price environment.

“With non-OPEC+ producers around the world not growing their production and entering seasonal maintenance, the OPEC+ decision to add extra barrels in May and June fits well into that agenda. This becomes even more important as potential US-China trade resolution erodes demand concerns and GDP risk.

"The big unknown for the market is how US actions related to Iran, Russia and Venezuela will result in supply disruptions or additions. The US could take advantage of softening prices to fill the strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) with Middle East barrels. Will President Trump find middle ground while in the Middle East? Overall, the core OPEC ‘eight’ wield the greatest influence on the oil market’s future trajectory.”