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Global refining capacity is on the rise. (Image source: Rystad Energy)

The Middle East and Asia are driving global refining growth, according to new research from Rystad Energy

Middle Eastern refiners have expanded their refining capacity in the last 20 years from nearly 8mn bpd to around 13mn bpd, with major additions concentrated in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, as the region focuses on adding value through downstream integration. This includes the development of complex, large-scale refineries designed not only to serve growing domestic demand but also to supply refined products to key export markets across the globe. Saudi Aramco for example has invested heavily in expanding its refining footprint, developing advanced complexes such as Jazan and forming joint ventures including YASREF and SATORP.

China has nearly doubled its refining capacity over the past two decades, from 10.6mn bpd in 2005 to 18.8mn bpd in 2025, to meet rising domestic demand and improve energy security, while also positioning the country as a key exporter of refined products. India’s refining capacity has grown from 2.9 million bpd in 2005 to around 5.2mn bpd this year, for similar reasons, including strong domestic consumption and strategic investments in refining infrastructure.

“The Middle East and Asia are driving global refining growth by focusing on large, integrated mega-refineries that secure energy supplies and meet rapidly rising demand. In contrast, Europe and the US are retreating, with older, less efficient plants closing due to high costs and uncertainty over future fuel needs. This shift has sparked a wave of rationalisation, where smaller, less flexible refineries are being shut down while bigger, more adaptable facilities gain ground through economies of scale. Today, nearly all new projects are larger and more economically viable, so even though the total number of refineries worldwide has declined, overall refining capacity continues to grow significantly,” said Arne Skjaeveland, vice president, Oil & Gas Research, Rystad Energy.

Rystad Energy’s research shows that in the last two decades, global primary refining capacity has increased by about 13.5 million barrels per day (bpd), or roughly 15%, while the number of refineries has been in decline since 2011 driven by ageing infrastructure, shrinking profit margins and weakening fuel demand as electrification advances.

As for emissions, emissions intensity across the sector has held relatively steady overall. Asia, followed by the Middle East, has seen total refinery emissions surge, driven by rapid growth in capacity and throughput. The newer, highly complex refineries in Asia and the Middle East tend to consume more energy but often achieve greater carbon efficiency per barrel thanks to modern technologies and tighter integration. Meanwhle, emissions in North America and Europe have remained flat or declined, largely as a result of retrofits and refinery closures rather than gains in carbon efficiency.

The two companies will collaborate on AI-powere autonomous operations. (Image source: Borouge)

Abu Dhabi-based petrochemicals company Borouge is collaborating with Honeywell to conduct a proof of concept for AI-powered autonomous operations, which is set to deliver the petrochemical industry’s first AI-driven control room designed for full-scale, real-time operation

The initiative aims to deploy the proof-of-concept technologies to enhance Borouge’s operations across its Ruwais facilities in the UAE. Autonomous operations will enable Borouge to optimise production, reduce energy use, and enhance safety while reducing costs at what will be the single largest petrochemical site in the world. Both companies will leverage their expertise in process technology and autonomous control capabilities to identify new opportunities to deploy Agentic AI solutions and advanced machine learning algorithms.

The project is a key component of Borouge's companywide AIDT programme, which is projected to generate US$575mn in value this year. In 2024, Borouge’s portfolio of over 200 AIDT initiatives—spanning operations, health and safety, sales, sustainability, and product innovation—generated $573mn in value

Borouge has already installed the world’s largest Real-Time Optimisation (RTO) system across three large-scale ethane crackers and 20 furnaces. The initiative analyses over 2,500 parameters per minute, enabling instant data-driven decisions, significantly enhancing productivity, optimising energy consumption and reducing emissions. The unique system minimises ethane dumping and optimises resource use, in line with Borouge's commitment to sustainable growth and operational excellence.

Borouge has invested in its state-of-the-art Innovation Centre located in Abu Dhabi and is now using advanced AI-powered tools to accelerate innovation, enabling the company to bring new grades of advanced polymers to market quicker. In collaboration with ADNOC AI Lab, Borouge has completed its first “Polymer Optimisation” programme, achieving a 97% accuracy, enabling Borouge to reduce its development timeline from months to weeks.

Hazeem Sultan Al Suwaidi, chief executive officer of Borouge, said, “Borouge's AI, Digitalisation, and Technology (AIDT) transformation programme is setting new standards in operations, innovation and business performance. By collaborating with global AI leaders such as Honeywell, we are accelerating growth, driving efficiency, and enhancing shareholder value. This project further strengthens Borouge’s competitive edge as we continue to deliver on our ambitious AIDT roadmap.”

George Bou Mitri, president of Honeywell Industrial Automation, Middle East, Turkey, Africa, Central Asia, said, “By integrating AI and automation technologies into core operations, we are helping unlock new levels of efficiency, safety, and performance. This agreement shows how advanced technologies, applied with purpose, can reshape industrial operations at scale.”

ADNOC L&S will manage the transportation of up to 70% of Borouge's annual production. (Image source: ADNOC L&S)

Borouge Plc and ADNOC Logistics & Services Plc have partnered to boost the production and export of petrochemicals from the UAE, as Borouge prepares to ramp up production capacity

Borouge plans to increase production capacity by 1.4 million tonnes per annum by the end of 2026 through its Borouge 4 mega project, which will make it the world’s largest single-site polyolefin complex. The 15-year US$531mn service agreement, which will drive cost savings and efficiencies as well as enhancing Borouge’s supply chain network, covers port management, container handling, and feeder container ship services for the Borouge Container Terminal in Al Ruwais Industrial City, Abu Dhabi. ADNOC L&S will manage the transportation of up to 70% of Borouge’s annual production, deploying a minimum of two dedicated container feeder ships to transport Borouge’s products from Al Ruwais to the deepwater ports of Jebel Ali in Dubai and Khalifa Port in Abu Dhabi.

Hazeem Sultan Al Suwaidi, CEO of Borouge, commented, “This agreement builds on our longstanding collaboration with ADNOC L&S, a partnership that has been instrumental in meeting the evolving needs of our customers in high-growth markets. It brings significant benefits to Borouge; driving substantial operational cost savings and enhancing our Logistics Variable Cost (LVC), as well as complementing our existing rail operations and expanding the flexibility of our supply chain network. With the rapid increase in our production capacity, we are advancing our capabilities in delivering differentiated products and solutions efficiently, while keeping pace with rising global demand."

Captain Abdulkareem Al Masabi, CEO of ADNOC L&S, added, “This comprehensive container terminal agreement marks a major milestone in our successful partnership with Borouge, delivering on ADNOC L&S’ strategy to provide seamless, end-to-end logistics solutions that power the UAE’s industrial growth and export ambitions. By leveraging our extensive maritime and logistics expertise, we are ensuring that Borouge’s world-class petrochemical products reach global markets efficiently and competitively.”

The petrochemical industry is increasingly turning its attention to chemical recycling. (Image source: Synergy)

As environmental concerns and regulatory pressures gain precedence, the petrochemical industry is increasingly turning its attention to chemical recycling

Often positioned as a potential game-changer, this technology seeks to offer a more sustainable path by converting plastic waste back into its original chemical components, enabling the production of new materials with properties comparable to those made from virgin feedstocks. Its attractiveness lies in addressing the twin evils – the plastic waste crisis and the need for higher-quality recycled materials.

How does chemical recycling work?

Chemical recycling, also referred to as advanced recycling, differs from mechanical recycling in both process and potential. Rather than grinding and melting plastics, it involves breaking down polymers into monomers or other base chemicals through processes such as pyrolysis, gasification, or depolymerisation. This allows for the creation of new plastics suitable for applications that require high purity, including food-grade packaging, where mechanically recycled plastics often fall short.

Several companies around the world have begun to scale up their chemical recycling initiatives.
• ExxonMobil, for example, has announced plans to invest US$200mn to expand its chemical recycling capabilities at its Baytown and Beaumont complexes in Texas. With its proprietary Exxtend technology, the company aims to process up to half a million tons of plastic waste per year by 2027.
• In Europe, Eastman Chemical is building a US$1bn molecular recycling facility in France. Once operational, it is expected to recycle up to 160,000 tons of plastic waste annually using polyester renewal technology.
• In India, Reliance Industries has become a pioneer in this space, producing circular polymers at its Jamnagar refinery, which has received ISCC-Plus certification to ensure sustainability and traceability.

However, the economic challenges associated with chemical recycling are substantial. These technologies are energy-intensive, resulting in higher operational costs compared to traditional recycling or even the production of virgin plastics. In some cases, chemically recycled polyethylene terephthalate (PET) can cost two to three times more than its virgin counterpart, limiting its competitiveness. Additionally, the process often requires clean and sorted plastic waste as feedstock, which is difficult to obtain in many regions due to inadequate waste segregation and contamination. This issue not only affects cost but also scalability.

Advantages of chemical recycling

From an environmental standpoint, chemical recycling does offer certain advantages. Studies indicate that pyrolysis — a commonly used method in chemical recycling — can emit up to 50% less CO₂ than the incineration of mixed plastic waste. The process also has the potential to eliminate hazardous substances embedded in plastics, such as legacy chemicals and substances of very high concern (SVHC), resulting in cleaner end-products. Nevertheless, these benefits must be weighed against the significant energy inputs required for these processes. Without low-carbon energy sources or efficiency improvements, the net environmental gains may be limited.

Looking ahead, the development of chemical recycling will depend on a combination of technological, regulatory, and economic factors. Enhancing waste collection and sorting infrastructure will be crucial for improving feedstock quality. Policy frameworks that clearly define recycled content and support traceability will help create market confidence. Meanwhile, collaboration between governments, research institutions, and industry stakeholders could accelerate innovation and reduce costs over time.

While chemical recycling is unlikely to single-handedly resolve the petrochemical sector’s sustainability challenges, it may play a valuable role within a broader strategy for circularity. When complemented by upstream design changes, responsible consumption, mechanical recycling, and waste minimization efforts, it has the potential to contribute meaningfully to the sector's transition.

Whether it ultimately transforms the petrochemical industry or becomes a niche complement to existing methods will depend on how these challenges are addressed in the years to come.

This article is authored by Synergy Consulting IFA.

The petrochemical industry stands at a pivotal juncture. (Image source: Synergy Consulting)

As the world pivots towards a low-carbon future, the petrochemical industry finds itself at a crossroads, balancing growth prospects with evolving regulatory and sustainability challenges

The global energy transition is reshaping industries, compelling them to integrate clean energy solutions alongside their continued reliance on fossil fuels. While much of the focus has been on the deceleration of oil and gas consumption as primary energy sources, petrochemicals remain a critical segment with sustained demand projected well into the coming decades.

This sector, heavily dependent on fossil fuel-based feedstocks, produces essential chemicals that form the backbone of numerous industries, including plastics, fertilizers, and pharmaceuticals. Unlike transportation fuels, whose consumption forecasts have fluctuated, petrochemicals are expected to witness steady demand with fewer disruptions. The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects that petrochemicals will account for more than a third of oil demand growth by 2030, primarily driven by rising consumption in developing economies. In India, for example, demand for key petrochemicals such as ethylene and propylene is expected to increase two- to three-fold over the next two decades, fueled by urbanisation, industrial expansion, and the drive for decarbonisation.

Complex sustainability imperatives

However, this growth trajectory exists alongside increasing scrutiny of the industry’s environmental footprint. Governments and regulatory bodies worldwide are tightening climate policies, imposing restrictions on single-use plastics, and advancing circular economy initiatives. As a result, petrochemical producers must navigate complex sustainability imperatives while maintaining competitiveness.

The environmental impact of petrochemical production has become a focal point for policymakers, investors, and consumers. The industry accounts for approximately 18% of global industrial carbon emissions, with energy-intensive processes such as refining and steam cracking being major contributors. Key challenges include:
Regulatory pressures: Carbon pricing mechanisms, plastic bans, and stricter emissions controls are being implemented globally, increasing production costs and pressuring profit margins.
Circular economy and recycling: Advances in chemical recycling, biodegradable alternatives, and closed-loop manufacturing systems threaten to reduce reliance on virgin petrochemical feedstocks, reshaping traditional demand patterns.
Investor sentiment: ESG-focused investment strategies are compelling oil majors and petrochemical producers to present credible decarbonisation roadmaps, with capital allocation increasingly favouring companies with sustainable practices.

To ensure long-term viability, petrochemical producers are exploring multiple strategic pathways:
Feedstock diversification: Investments in bio-based and recycled feedstocks are gaining traction as companies seek to lower emissions and align with sustainability goals.
Carbon capture and utilisation (CCU): The integration of CCU technologies is emerging as a key solution to mitigate emissions, though economic feasibility remains a challenge.
Advanced materials innovation: Research into high-performance polymers, biodegradable plastics, and alternative chemicals is accelerating, offering new avenues for growth beyond conventional petrochemicals.
Integration with renewable energy: Shifting production facilities towards renewable power sources and hydrogen-based processes is becoming a priority for reducing the sector’s carbon footprint.

The petrochemical industry stands at a pivotal juncture, balancing robust demand with the imperative to adapt to a rapidly evolving regulatory and sustainability landscape. While traditional growth drivers remain intact, companies that embrace innovation, diversify feedstocks, and integrate low-carbon solutions will emerge as industry leaders. The coming decade will serve as a litmus test for the sector’s resilience, ultimately shaping its role in a decarbonising world.

This article is authored by Synergy Consulting IFA.

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