Discovered and recoverable oil resources have increased by 5bn bbl over the past year, according to Rystad. (Image source: Adobe Stock)

Discovered and recoverable oil resources have increased by 5bn bbl over the past year, according to Rystad Energy’s latest research, primarily as a result of potential in Argentina’s Vaca Muerta play and the Permian Delaware basin in Texas and New Mexico

Global recoverable oil resources, including estimates for undiscovered fields, stabilised at approximately 1.5 trillion barrels. However Rystad has revised down its projection of yet-to-find resources due to a steep decline in frontier exploration, unsuccessful shale developments outside the Americas and a doubling in offshore costs over the past five years. Rystad Energy expects new conventional oil projects to replace less than 30% of production over the next five years, while exploration would replace only around 10%.

The world’s proven oil reserves currently amount to only 14 years of production. If future global oil demand increases, as forecast by OPEC, supply will struggle to keep up with demand, even at attractive prices for producers. However, if the energy transition continues to make inroads, future oil demand is expected to fall, particularly with the greater electrification of transport vehicles, as seen in China.

“Full extraction of these oil resources will require oil prices stabilising at higher levels and further estimate increases will require new technologies to lower production costs. Over the next decades, the capital needed will likely not be available to meet continuously increasing oil demand, service prices could skyrocket, and there will likely be limited appetite for innovations to sustain such high emissions from oil,” said Per Magnus Nysveen, chief analyst at Rystad Energy.

If oil demand rises over the next few decades, global recoverable resources will not offer the supply needed to meet it, creating a constrained economic environment that would not be able to compete with less capital-intensive energy sources. As a result, Rystad Energy does not expect oil demand to continue to grow steeply towards 2050.

“In a world with flat or growing demand after 2030, another oil super-cycle would be needed. This scenario would require a substantial increase in frontier exploration and drilling success as well as accelerated deployment of secondary recovery and full-scale development of non-core shale plays in North America and globally,” said Artem Abramov, deputy head of Analysis at Rystad Energy .

Richard Hall, CEO of Dana Gas. (Image source: Dana Gas)

Dana Gas has reported success in the initial stages of its US$100mn investment programme to increase Egypt’s gas production

The US$100mn investment programme, which involves the drilling of 11 new wells, is expected to significantly increase Dana Gas’s long-term production in Egypt and add approximately 80 bcf in recoverable gas reserves over the course of the two-year plan.

The company has received encouraging initial results from the ‘Begonia-2’ appraisal well, the first appraisal well within the Begonia development area in Egypt’s onshore Nile delta and the first of eleven appraisal and exploration wells planned under the investment programme. The well is estimated to contain nine billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas as an initial estimate, which is subject to increase. Begonia-2 will produce an additional five million cubic feet per day. The well is located in the "New El-Manzala" concession and is operated by the  El-Wastani Petroleum Company (Wasco).

The company has also begun to re-complete several wells in other geological layers, which are expected to add more reserves and enhance production. Work is currently underway on the Balsam-3 well, where estimated reserves are 4 bcf, with an anticipated additional production of 3 million cubic feet of gas per day. The successful recompletion of Balsam-3 is expected to reduce the risk associated with drilling exploration wells in the area and further enhance output.

Richard Hall, CEO, Dana Gas, said, “We have been developing and producing gas in Egypt for over a decade, and the signing of the concession area consolidation agreement with the Egyptian Natural Gas Holding Company (EGAS) late last year has allowed us to acquire additional areas under improved financial terms, enabling us to launch this new phase.

“The success of drilling this well opens vast prospects for gas production in the 'Begonia' area and presents promising future opportunities for expansion and growth. It will also extend the operational life of our assets in Egypt. We are fully committed to making every effort to ensure the success of the programme and its efficient and timely execution. Dana Gas reaffirms its strong commitment to reinvesting the payments it receives from the Egyptian government into executing this ambitious programme and supporting future development projects in the country.”

SONATRACH and Sinopec are looking to expand their co-operation through this agreement.

SONATRACH and its Chinese partner Sinopec have signed an agreement with a view to assessing and developing hydrocarbon resources in the Basins of Gourara in south west Algeria and East Berkine in the south east of the country

As part of the agreement, the parties will discuss a work programme for the evaluation and exploitation of these resources, integrating best practices for the preservation of the environment and responsible exploitation of natural resources.

“The signing of this Head Of Agreement expresses the willingness of both parties to bolster their existing relationship and expand their cooperation through new partnership opportunities in hydrocarbons exploration and development,” said SONATRACH in a statement.

Sinopec has been present in Algeria since 2002 and operates the Zarzaïtine field with SONATRACH under the framework of a contract of association focusing on hydrocarbon recovery and development.

Sinopec is also SONATRACH‘s partner under the hydrocarbons agreement signed on 25 February 2025 under  Law 19-13 relating to the exploration and exploitation of the Hassi Berkane perimeter. The two companies signed a production sharing contract (PSA) for hydrocarbon development and exploration worth US$850mn, and will carry out exploration and appraisal drilling on the licence, which lies 80 km from the huge Hassi Messaoud field.

Algeria is rich in oil and gas resources and offers significant potential. It holds approximately 12.2bn barrels of proven crude oil reserves, making it the third-largest in Africa, along with 159 trillion cubic feet of proven natural gas reserves, and is the largest gas producer in the continent. Around two-thirds of Algeria's territory remains underexplored or underdeveloped.

The country is seeking international investment to boost hydrocarbons production. The National Agency for the Valorization of Hydrocarbon Resources (ALNAFT) unveiled six new onshore licensing opportunities for conventional hydrocarbon exploration in 2024, as part of a five-year licensing plan designed to attract global upstream investors. The six opportunities span a cumulative perimeter size of 152,000 sq. km, supported by over 102,000-line km of 2D seismic data and more than 45,000 km² of 3D seismic data.

In June, TotalEnergies, jointly with QatarEnergy, was awarded the Ahara exploration license following the 2024 bid round. It covers an area of approximately 14,900 sq km, located at the intersection of the prolific Berkine and Illizi Basins.

In early July, Sonatrach signed a PSA with Italy’s Eni to explore and develop the Zemoul El Kbar area in the Berkine Basin, around 300 km east of Hassi Messaoud.

Global gas production by region. (Image source: Rystad Energy)

The Middle East is set to overtake Asia to become the world’s second-largest gas producer in 2025 after North America, according to Rystad Energy research and analysis

Gas production in the Middle East has grown by about 15% since 2020, as regional producers seek to monetise gas reserves and develop export potential to meet global demand.

The region currently produces about 70bn cubic feet per day (Bcfd) of gas, a figure that is forecast to increase by 30% by 2030 and 34% by 2035 thanks to significant developments in Saudi Arabia, Iran, Qatar, Oman, and the UAE. By 2030, the region will add another 20 Bcfd, around half of which will be needed to meet rising domestic demand, with the rest available for export to Europe – which is keen to reduce its reliance on Russian energy – and fast-growing markets in Asia. Iran is currently the Middle East’s leading gas producer, at around 25 Bcfd, followed by Qatar at 16 Bcfd and Saudi Arabia at 8 Bcfd. But with Qatar’s production projected to rise nearly 50% to 24 Bcfd, driven by the ongoing development of its massive North Field, the country is expected to overtake Iran as the Middle East’s largest gas producer in the early 2030s.

“As more long-term gas contracts are signed and export volumes rise, the Middle East is on track to become a key energy hub for countries seeking stable and dependable sources of natural gas,” said Mrinal Bhardwaj, senior analyst, Upstream Research at Rystad Energy.

Qatar, the UAE and Saudi Arabia are leading this growth, with Qatar’s ambitious North Field expansion set to boost its LNG capacity by 80%, from 77 to 142 million tonnes per annum (Mtpa) by the end of the decade, while maintaining a competitive breakeven price of under US$6 per MMBtu.

“A drop below US$6 per MMBtu is not ideal for investments, but Middle Eastern projects remain highly resilient due to their low breakeven costs, typically below US$5 per thousand cubic feet. Even in a prolonged low-price environment, we expect strong production growth from the region. While some final investment decisions could be delayed in such a scenario, the overall impact on output should be limited,” added Rahul Choudhary, vice president, Upstream Research at Rystad Energy.

Rystad expects investments of more than US$50bn in the region’s LNG developments, as the region looks to strengthen its position in the global LNG market, with Qatar adding 48 Mtpa through its North Field East and North Field South projects. The UAE will contribute an additional 10 Mtpa from the Ruwais LNG project, and TotalEnergies is developing the Marsa LNG project with a capacity of 1 Mtpa in Oman. The new volumes of LNG produced in both Qatar and the UAE are primarily earmarked for Asian and European buyers, with Chinese national oil companies and global energy majors emerging as key buyers.