Energy Transition

the crisis and the increased focus on energy security are renewing interest in hydrogen and hydrogen-based fuels. (Image source: Adobe Stock)

The conflict in the Middle East has disrupted global production and trade in hydrogen-based products such as fertilisers, fuels and industrial feedstocks, exposing vulnerabilities in supply chains, according to the latest edition of the IEA’s Global Hydrogen Review

The report finds that the crisis and the increased focus on energy security are renewing interest in hydrogen and hydrogen-based fuels, although low-emissions hydrogen remains at a relatively small scale.

Demand for hydrogen worldwide surpassed 100 million tonnes in 2025, according to the report, while production of low-emissions hydrogen grew by 20% to almost 1 million tonnes. However, persistent barriers including high costs, uncertain demand, complex regulations and a lack of infrastructure continue to slow the development of low-emissions hydrogen, putting 2030 targets announced by governments increasingly out of reach.

"The current crisis has highlighted how deeply economies around the world depend on trade in hydrogen-based products and the significant role of the Middle East in those supply chains," said IEA executive director Fatih Birol. "Countries are looking for ways to make their energy systems more resilient and diversified. Low-emissions hydrogen can play an important role in those efforts over time, but stronger policy support and much faster deployment will be needed before it can make a meaningful contribution at scale."

Fertiliser markets have been particularly affected by the conflict in the Middle East, which is home to around one-sixth of global hydrogen production, the majority dedicated to the production of chemicals, fertilisers and refined oil products. The region accounts for more than 10% of global refining capacity, ammonia and urea production, and close to 17% of methanol production.

The region makes up over one-quarter of global trade in ammonia, almost 40% of urea trade and almost 45% of methanol trade, and one-third of its refining capacity is export-oriented. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has severely disrupted the supply of all these products. The production of hydrogen-based fuels outside the Middle East has also been affected, particularly in Asia, where countries are very dependent on natural gas imports from the Middle East.

Disruptions to production, exports and shipping routes have contributed to shortages and price volatility across global markets with the increase in fertiliser costs posing risks for food supply chains, especially in import-dependent agricultural economies.

Low-emissions hydrogen

Low-emissions hydrogen production grew by 20% in 2025 to reach almost 1 Mt and is set to exceed 1% of global hydrogen production for the first time, but progress is concentrated in a small number of projects. However investment momentum weakened in 2025, with delays to final investment decisions and a shrinking pipeline of projects highlighting the challenges facing the sector.

Despite continued policy support in some markets, low-emissions hydrogen and hydrogen-based products remain significantly more expensive than conventional alternatives in most markets. The pipeline of announced projects for producing low-emissions hydrogen by 2030 has shrunk by around a quarter since last year to 27 million tonnes due to delays and cancellations, and the number of projects likely to become operational by 2030 has fallen significantly.

Demand uncertainty remains a key constraint for scaling up low-emissions hydrogen development, with offtake agreements at low level. This is cited by developers as one of the largest barriers to investment.

The new guidance addresses hydrogen-specific integrity and safety considerations. (Image source: Adobe Stock)

DNV has published a recommended practice (RP) for offshore hydrogen pipelines, supporting safe design, operation and requalification of pipeline infrastructure for transporting hydrogen

DNV-RP-F123 Hydrogen pipeline systems addresses hydrogen-specific integrity and safety considerations. It supplements DNV’s established submarine pipeline standard, DNV-ST-F101 and adds additional guidance tailored to transporting hydrogen gas and hydrogen blends in pipeline systems. It is relevant for new pipeline developments as well as for the requalifying of existing offshore infrastructure for hydrogen transport, supporting broader efforts to scale hydrogen networks.

Hydrogen is expected to play an increasing role in cutting emissions from hard-to-decarbonise sectors. However the transportation of hydrogen by pipeline faces certain risks and considerations, such as embrittlement.

DNV-RP-F123 has been developed through the H2Pipe joint industry project (JIP), which ran from 2021 to 2026 and brought together 37 industry partners across operators, manufacturers, engineering companies and academic advisors to provide guidance for engineering projects and qualification work.

The next step is large-scale testing to validate data and advance existing standards. This phase will include full-scale pipe testing at DNV’s Spadeadam Research and Development Facility. The results will feed into the continued development of DNV-RP-F123 and future guidance.

“Hydrogen service fundamentally changes the integrity picture for pipeline systems,” explained Prajeev Rasiah, executive vice president and regional director for Northern Europe, Energy Systems at DNV, “it cannot be treated as a simple variant of natural gas. This recommended practice moves beyond theoretical study to provide an evidence-based framework for assessing hydrogen-specific risks in design, requalification, and operation. By closing the gaps around material suitability and safety margins, we are giving teams the technical clarity needed to move projects from the study phase into execution. This is particularly vital for requalifying existing infrastructure, where the guidance helps define exactly what must be tested or upgraded to ensure a safe reliable and sustainable transition.”

“The objective of the H2Pipe JIP is to build guidance grounded in shared data and real technical experience from testing,” added Philippe Darcis, chairman of the H2Pipe JIP Steering Committee and Pipeline Technology Senior Director at Tenaris. “The real value of the H2Pipe JIP is in turning years of shared data into credible, site-ready guidance that engineers can use to scale hydrogen infrastructure. This is a practical tool built to reduce the 'unknowns' that often stall investment. Because it was developed through industry-wide collaboration, it gives operators a robust basis for making decisions, allowing us to move forward with fewer assumptions and greater confidence in our safety and performance standards.”

The majority of projects are still at a feasibility stage. (Image source: GlobalData)

The global hydrogen economy is evolving and is entering a new inflection point in 2026 amid shifting market realities, policy uncertainties and execution challenges

That’s according to Hydrogen in Oil and Gas, a new report from leading intelligence platform GlobalData, which reveals that as of February 2026, active low-carbon hydrogen capacity stood at around 2.2 million tonnes per annum (mtpa), with over 460 projects in operation, compared to 104 in 2020. However, demand uncertainty and limited investment are barriers constraining the development of new low-carbon hydrogen projects, particularly in North America, where policy change has negatively impacted certain high-profile projects.

GlobalData projects that global hydrogen production capacity could reach 82.3 mtpa by 2030, taking into account the active under development projects, but around 57% of projects due to start by then are still at the feasibility stage, and are unlikely to be commissioned on schedule.

Ravindra Puranik, Oil and Gas Analyst at GlobalData, commented, “Despite an impressive increase in count of active low-carbon hydrogen projects, capacity additions remain far below the levels needed to meet the near-term targets set by the IEA Net Zero Emissions (NZE) scenario.”

GlobalData notes the scarcity of large-scale projects, with only 10 of the 2,335 upcoming projects worldwide having capacities exceeding 1 mtpa and a few others touching the 0.5 mtpa mark. Among the 10 high-capacity projects, nine are for green hydrogen, and one is for blue hydrogen.

Puranik continues: “Despite accounting for the bulk of the project numbers, the cumulative capacity of green hydrogen initiatives remains relatively modest. Thus, their output is not large enough to displace established energy sources, such as natural gas or utility-scale renewables. Developers face significant challenges in scaling up, including overcoming infrastructure constraints, securing long-term offtake agreements, and ensuring financial viability. Until more large-scale progress through the development pipeline, hydrogen’s share in the global energy mix will likely remain constrained.”

“Looking ahead to 2030, global low-carbon hydrogen capacity is expected to expand once demand picks up, backed by increased private investment and supportive policy frameworks, as it is a critical energy source to achieve corporate net-zero commitments. Nevertheless, achieving these ambitions will require overcoming persistent financial, regulatory, and infrastructure barriers in the near term to ensure that project announcements translate into operational capacity by the end of the decade.”

Among oil and gas majors, BP leads in green hydrogen, with nearly 3 mtpa of active and upcoming capacity with projects in Mauritania, Australia, and across Europe. TotalEnergies has also increased its focus on green hydrogen projects, alongside industrial gas leaders like Air Liquide and Air Products. Meanwhile, Shell and Equinor are expected to lead in blue hydrogen capacity by 2030.

Middle East developments

As for the Middle East, DNV forecasts that region is on track to become the biggest hydrogen exporter by 2060 — not only sustaining its share of global hydrocarbon supply but potentially expanding it. By 2060, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) is projected to produce 19 million tonnes of hydrogen annually, alongside significant growth in ammonia exports, DNV’s Oil & Gas Decarbonisation in the Gulf Region report says. Integrating hydrogen production with CCUS, renewables and existing industrial clusters will enable “cost-competitive pathways” that support decarbonisation across domestic and international value chains, DNV adds.

Currently, hydrogen demand in the GCC is driven almost entirely by its role as an industrial feedstock, but it is now evolving to a strategic energy carrier. Despite this transformation, hydrogen and its derivatives are projected to contribute just 3.1% of the region’s total final energy consumption by 2060 – well below the global average of 6%, according to DNV, reflecting both the region’s slower initial update of hydrogen and its abundant low-cost fossil fuel resources.

See more on DNV’s Oil & Gas Decarbonisation in the Gulf Region report in the latest issue of Oil Review Middle East here

GCC countries are realigning domestic energy systems. (Image source: Adobe Stock)

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is set to become the world’s largest hydrogen exporter by 2060, while maintaining a dominant position in global oil and gas markets, according to DNV’s Oil & Gas Decarbonization in the Gulf Region report

The report highlights how Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries are cutting the emissions intensity of their core oil and gas production while continuing to play a central role in global energy supply, presenting a picture of a region approaching the energy transition from a position of confidence and capital strength. Reductions in emissions intensity are occurring alongside continued hydrocarbon production and investment across renewables, electrification, hydrogen, methane abatement, digitalization, and carbon capture.

Since 2005, the GCC has produced nearly 18% of global oil and gas, a share expected to increase as investment continues in low-cost, advantaged resources. As global energy demand increasingly shifts toward Asia, the region’s location and cost competitiveness strengthen its position as a preferred supplier. At the same time, decarbonization measures are becoming an integral part of long-term competitiveness.

“The global energy transition will not progress at the same pace across regions, nor will it follow a single pathway,” said Brice Le Gallo, vice-president & regional director for Southern Europe, MEA & LATAM, Energy Systems at DNV. “In the Middle East, oil and gas remain central to economic stability and global energy security. The key challenge is to reduce their emissions footprint while accelerating investment in the technologies needed for a lower-carbon energy system.”

Electrification is being used to cut Scope 2 emissions from pumps, compressors, and offshore facilities, through grid connections, renewable power, and hybrid solutions. These efforts are supported by energy-efficiency measures and the use of digital tools and artificial intelligence to optimise drilling, reservoir management, and asset operations, reducing energy intensity and emissions per barrel produced.

Methane reduction remains one of the most immediate and cost-effective options for lowering emissions. Across the GCC, routine flaring is planned to be phased out by 2030 and leak detection and repair (LDAR) programmes are increasingly standard. National oil companies are also aligning with international methane initiatives, enabling continued production growth while reducing methane intensity in line with national net-zero targets.

GCC countries are realigning domestic energy systems to reduce oil and gas use domestically and free up volumes for export and low-carbon fuel production. Growth in renewables, electrification of transport and buildings, and efficiency gains are driving this shift. Investment in downstream industries, petrochemicals, and low-carbon fuels is also changing export profiles, moving beyond crude oil toward higher-value and lower-carbon energy products.

With access to low-cost natural gas, strong solar resources, and established industrial and export infrastructure, the region is well placed to scale both low-carbon hydrogen (produced from natural gas with carbon capture) and renewable hydrogen produced through electrolysis. By 2060, the Middle-East and North Africa region is projected to produce around 19 million tonnes of hydrogen and 13 million tonnes of ammonia per year, exporting about 50%, mainly toward Europe and advanced Asian economies.

“Hydrogen, ammonia, and carbon capture are becoming core elements of the GCC’s energy export model,” said Jan Zschommler, market area manager for the Middle East, Energy Systems at DNV. “As emissions requirements tighten, access to international markets will increasingly depend on carbon intensity. Integrating hydrogen production with renewable power, carbon capture, and existing industrial clusters allows the region to remain competitive while meeting these requirements.”

Carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) is also set to grow. In January 2026, the UAE's Supreme Council for Financial and Economic Affairs has introduced Carbon Capture Policy as a further commitment to meeting their carbon reduction targets. Captured CO₂ volumes (including CO₂ removal) are expected to reach around 250 million tonnes per year by 2060, equivalent to roughly 8% of regional energy-related and industrial emissions.

Bioenergy with carbon capture (BECCS) and direct air capture (DAC) combined are expected to remove around 81 million tonnes of CO₂ per year by 2060, helping to offset emissions from sectors that are more difficult to decarbonise.

The full report is available at https://www.dnv.com/energy-transition-outlook/oil-and-gas-decarbonization-in-the-gulf-region/