Energy Transition

By 2034, global carbon capture capacity is forecast to reach 440 Mtpa. (Image source: Wood Mackenzie)

Carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS) will ramp up strongly over the next decade, but development in the Middle East and some other regions is hampered by a lack of policy, regulatory frameworks and funding, according to a recent report from Wood Mackenzie

By 2034, global carbon capture capacity will reach 440 Mtpa and storage capacity will reach 664 Mtpa, requiring US$196bn in total investment, according to the report “CCUS: 10-year market forecast”, with around 70% of the investment forecast to be in North America and Europe. The USA leads in funding, followed by the UK and Canada.

 “This is a huge ramp-up from where the industry is today. Government funding plays a critical role in driving the first wave of CCUS investments,” said Hetal Gandhi, APAC CCUS lead with Wood Mackenzie. “We see governments offering capex grants, opex subsidies, tax incentives and contracts for differences for CCUS. While no single mechanism has been used predominantly and each country devises novel methods to incentivise investments, nearly US$80bn is directly committed to CCUS across five key countries.”

Shortfall in supply forecast

Despite the forecasted increase in projects, Wood Mackenzie forecasts a shortfall in supply. Industries will need up to 640 Mtpa of carbon capture capacity by 2034 as they look to decarbonise, but the projects expected to come into operation fall around 200 Mtpa short of that.

“Of the projects already announced and expected to go ahead in the development pipeline, 71% are in North America and in Europe,” said Gandhi. “Government incentives such as the US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), UK business models, Canada’s Investment Tax Credit and the Netherlands SDE++ scheme are moving projects towards final investment decision (FID). We also expect a further boost to European projects due to the recently announced EU Industrial Carbon Management Strategy.

 “The lack of CCUS announcements in APAC’s largest emitting countries – China and India – is causing the region to have substantially lower capacity than needed under Wood Mackenzie’s base case. Key sectors like power and chemicals will see a large gap between demand potential and actual supply until 2034. We expect APAC’s capture pipeline will mature through additional announcements later in the decade.”

In APAC, while regulatory momentum is strong in Australia, Japan, South Korea and Indonesia, government incentives are needed to accelerate CCUS development. In contrast, development in China, India, Latin America, the Middle East and Africa is limited by a lack of firm policy, regulatory frameworks and funding support.

Cross-border transport of CO2 and liability risk remain key areas to watch out in the medium term, says Wood Mackenzie.

The overall pace of the transition has slowed, with economic volatility, heightened geopolitical tensions and technological shifts all having an impact. (Image source: Adobe Stock)

The global energy transition to a more equitable, secure and sustainable energy has lost momentum in the face of increasing uncertainty worldwide, according to a new World Economic Forum report

While 107 of the 120 countries benchmarked in the report demonstrated progress on their energy transition journeys in the past decade, the overall pace of the transition has slowed, with economic volatility, heightened geopolitical tensions and technological shifts all having an impact. However, increasing global investments in renewables and significant growth in energy transition performance in sub-Saharan Africa over the past decade are positives.

Fostering Effective Energy Transition 2024, published in collaboration with Accenture, uses the Energy Transition Index (ETI) to benchmark 120 countries on the performance of their current energy systems, with a focus on balancing equity, environmental sustainability and energy security, and on their transition-readiness.

“We must ensure that the energy transition is equitable, in and across emerging and developed economies,” said Roberto Bocca, head of the Centre for Energy and Materials, World Economic Forum. “Transforming how we produce and consume energy is critical to success. We need to act on three key levers for the energy transition urgently: reforming the current energy system to reduce its emissions, deploying clean energy solutions at scale, and reducing energy intensity per unit of GDP.”

Europe leads the rankings

Europe continues to lead the ETI rankings, with the top 10 list for 2024 fully composed of countries from that region. Sweden comes top, followed by Denmark, Finland, Switzerland and France.These countries benefit from high political commitment, strong investments in research and development, expanded clean energy adoption – accelerated by the regional geopolitical situation, energy-efficiency policies and carbon pricing.
China and Brazil have advanced significantly in recent years, primarily driven by long-term efforts to increase the share of clean energy and enhance their grid reliability.

The gap in overall ETI scores has narrowed between advanced and developing economies, although clean energy investment continues to be concentrated in advanced economies and China. This underscores the need for financial support from advanced nations to facilitate an equitable energy transition in emerging and developing nations and forward-thinking policy-making in all nations to foster conducive investment conditions.

Over the past decade, the Middle East, Africa and Pakistan region has seen a 7% growth in its ETI score, which has stagnated in the last three years, according to the report, a significant barrier being the decline in finance and investment over this period. The region’s heavy reliance on oil revenues poses a challenge for a sustainable energy transition. Its regional score lags behind all regions except sub-Saharan Africa.

While the world remains off-track to meet net-zero ambitions by 2050 and limit global warming to no more than 1.5C, there has been notable progress in energy efficiency and an increase in the adoption of clean energy sources.

Innovation is a key enabling factor for the energy transition and can reduce costs, scale key technologies, renew and reskill the workforce and attract investments, the report stresses. Digital innovations, including generative AI, offer significant opportunities to reinvent the energy industry by enhancing productivity. Generative AI's ability to analyse vast quantities of data can provide innovative forecasts and solutions, or streamline existing operations to increase efficiencies, among other benefits. However, it will be crucial to responsibly and equitably address the risks and challenges posed by these technologies.

“C-suites consistently tell us a clear business case is a prerequisite for attracting investments in the energy transition, especially in the face of higher interest rates and the emerging talent shortage," said Muqsit Ashraf, group chief executive, Accenture Strategy. "We believe that a strong digital core, enabled by generative AI, can boost productivity, enhancing returns and talent availability and unlocking a new wave of investments.”

The joint venture aims to accelerate carbon capture for industrial decarbonisation at scale. (Image source: Adobe Stock)

SLB and Aker Carbon Capture have announced the closing of their joint venture designed to accelerate carbon capture adoption

The new company will combine ACC’s amine-based Advanced Carbon Capture technologies, including Just Catch and Big Catch modular plant technologies for medium- and large-scale facilities, and Just Catch Offshore for offshore gas turbines, with SLB’s portfolio of technology solutions, including non-aqueous solvent and emerging sorbent-based offerings. The company, of which SLB owns 80% with ACC ASA owning the remaining 20%, currently has seven technology installations in progress with the capacity to capture up to 1 million tonnes of CO2 emissions per year.

“There is no credible pathway toward net zero without deploying carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) at scale,” said Gavin Rennick, president of SLB’s New Energy business. “In the next few decades, many industries that are crucial to our modern world must rapidly adopt CCS to decarbonise. Through the joint venture, we are excited to accelerate disruptive carbon capture technologies globally.”

“There is no business as usual in the push toward net zero – we will accelerate decarbonisation today and commercialise innovative technologies for the future,” said Egil Fagerland, newly appointed chief executive officer of the new joint venture.

“We are proud of the carbon capture plants we are delivering across various industries, with each customer being an important front-runner in its segment. Successful project deliveries are paving the way for other emitters to follow.”

DNV’s Technology Centre in Groningen plays a pivotal role in tackling the challenges of CO2 flow metrology to advance projects related to CCUS. (Image source: DNV)

DNV, the independent energy expert and assurance provider, has initiated CO2MET, a joint industry project (JIP) to establish traceable flow standards for CCUS

The project brings toegether equipment suppliers, major transmission system operators and exploration and production companies.

As demonstrated by a DNV study, there are currently significant gaps in demonstrating compliance with CO2 metrology for the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) and other international regulations, with two significant challenges being the absence of an officially recognised and traceable standard for measuring CO2 volume under dynamic conditions for gas, liquid, and dense phase CO2; and the lack of flow laboratories conducting research and calibrations under the necessary process conditions.

The JIP is divided into two initiatives:
1. CO2MET Gas: Centered around gas applications, this project is expected to conclude in June 2024.
2. CO2MET LIQ: Focusing on conditions related to liquid, dense, and supercritical CO2, this project requires the design and construction of a new facility at DNV’s Technology Centre in Groningen to enable the development of traceable flow standards. First results are anticipated by the end of 2024, with current participants including Shell, TotalEnergies, Equinor, Gasunie, Santos, Inpex, and Gassco. New participants are welcome to join.

"As the world advances towards decarbonisation, DNV is proud to lead the establishment of essential standards for CO2 metering to ensure the global success of CCUS initiatives. By convening industry stakeholders to develop trusted guidelines, recommended practices, and standards, we ensure the reliable operation of critical assets and systems. This involves setting operational limits and ensuring performance throughout the lifespan of industrial assets," explained Prajeev Rasiah, executive vice president and regional director Northern Europe, Energy Systems at DNV.

“DNV’s Technology Centre in Groningen plays a pivotal role in tackling the challenges of CO2 flow metrology to advance projects related to CCUS," added Rene Bahlmann, head of Section for DNV's Technology Centre Groningen, Energy Systems at DNV.