Saudi Aramco’s suspension of over 30 jackup contracts by up to one year is a factor behind the tailing off in demand in the offshore rig market, according to new research from Westwood
This suspension is related to the deferral of some expansion projects following the decision to maintain maximum sustainable capacity at 12 mn bpd rather than raise it to 13mn bpd as originally planned.
Other factors behind the dampening of offshore rig market demand are the entry of newbuild rigs in the market and the deferment of several long-term deepwater drilling and P&A projects.
With the combination of a drop in demand and increase in supply, marketed utilisation fell to 88% as of March 2025, representing a fall of 6% in less than two years.
Westwood predicts utilisation of the combined jackup, semisub and drillship segments to fall further this year to around 85%, making it likely that more rigs could permanently be removed from the active drilling fleet this year.
So far this year, nine rigs have been confirmed for removal from the active fleet: four jackups, three semisubs and two modern ultra-deepwater drillships.
The average age of assets retired from the fleet has continued to reduce for floating rigs, but not for jackups. Along with falling utilisation and age, factors increasing the likelihood of a rig being scrapped are limited future prospects, being without work or cold-stacked for some time, and being due for a five-yearly special periodic survey (SPS), which can be expensive.
Other factors can be one-off designs in a contractor’s fleet, where they may not be able to spread spare parts costs etc, outdated designs, and mergers between owners, which can lead to the streamlining of fleets.
“To sum up, due to the reduction in jackup, drillship and semisub demand and utilisation this year, we will likely see more assets moved to cold stack due to not having follow-on commitments in place,” concludes Westwood. “Meanwhile, further M&A activity could also be in the works.
“These factors we believe will spur further older, idle and surplus assets to be removed from the fleet, which in the long run may help set the stage for a stronger recovery in utilisation from the second half of 2026 onwards, when Westwood expects to see a rebound in demand.”