Industry

Amin H. Nasser, CEO Aramco. (Image source: Aramco)

Aramco recorded healthy profits of US$106.2bn in 2024, and capital investment of US$53.3bn as it implemented the largest capital programme in its history

Profits were, however, hit by lower oil prices, seeing a drop of 12% on the 2023 figure, attributed by the company to “lower revenue and other income related to sales, higher operating costs, as well as lower finance and other income.”

Amin H. Nasser, Aramco’s president and CEO, noted that Aramco has made significant strides during the year on a number of projects and initiatives aimed at reinforcing its upstream pre-eminence, further integrating its downstream portfolio and developing the new energies business.

In its Annual Report, Aramco states that it intends to maintain its position as the world’s largest crude oil company by production volume, and is progressing several crude oil increments that are scheduled to come onstream in the coming years to sustain maximum sustainable capacity at 12mn bpd as well as allowing Aramco to preserve its operational flexibility.

The Marjan and Berri increments are expected to be onstream in 2025, with the Zuluf field increment scheduled to follow in 2026 and the second phase of Dammam in 2027.

Expanding the gas business

Aramco plans to further expand its gas business, including the development of its unconventional gas resources, increase its sales gas production capacity by more than 60% by 2030 compared to its 2021 production levels and invest in additional infrastructure to meet the large and growing domestic demand and to displace oil in power generation. Phase One of its Jafurah unconventional gas field development remains on schedule for 2025, with contracts awarded for Phase Two. The Tanajib Gas Plant project will come onstream in 2025, providing additional raw gas processing capacity from Marjan and Zuluf. Aramco has also completed the first full cycle of gas storage and reproduction into the Master Gas System from the Kingdom’s first underground natural gas storage reservoir.

Aramco anticipates strong demand-led growth for LNG as the energy transition progresses, with plans to develop an integrated global LNG business. In 2024, it acquired a strategic minority stake in MidOcean, followed by additional investments.

Downstream, Aramco intends to continue the strategic integration of its Upstream and Downstream businesses to facilitate the placement of the company’s crude oil in larger offtake volumes through a dedicated system of domestic and international wholly-owned and affiliated refineries and petrochemical complexes. The company intends to continue to grow its liquids-to-chemicals business, with a goal to increase its capacity in petrochemical producing complexes to up to four million bpd by 2030. Geographically, Aramco intends to enhance both its domestic and global Downstream businesses in key high-growth geographies such as China, India, and Southeast Asia.

Aramco is also making further investments in renewables projects through its New Energies business, as well as advancing lower-carbon products and solutions in the energy, chemicals, and materials sectors. Particularly noteworthy is the carbon capture and storage hub, which it is developing with partners at Jubail. When completed, this facility is expected to be one of the largest in the world, with the capacity to capture up to nine million tons of CO2 annually from the first phase.

“Our strong net income and increased base dividend illustrate Aramco’s exceptional resilience and ability to leverage its unique scale, low cost, and high levels of reliability to deliver industry-leading performance for our shareholders and customers,” said Nasser.

“Global oil demand reached new highs in 2024, and we expect further growth in 2025. With dependable and more sustainable energy key to global economic growth, we continue to make progress on projects to maintain our maximum sustainable crude oil capacity, expand our gas capabilities, achieve further integration of our Upstream and Downstream businesses to capture additional value, and help mitigate greenhouse gas emissions.

“We are also adopting and deploying AI technologies and solutions at scale across our operations, unlocking greater efficiencies and value creation throughout our business. Capital discipline is at the core of Aramco’s strategy, enabling us to deliver growth and capture value across conventional and new energy solutions.”

“With the world’s demand for energy continuing to grow, clearly one of the defining challenges of our time will be meeting this rising need while also lowering overall emissions to address climate challenges,” said H.E. Yasir O. Al-Rumayyan, chairman of the Board of Directors in the company’s Annual Report. “Against this backdrop, Aramco is purposely investing today with the long-term in mind.”

Economic growth in Asia is the main factor driving growth in LNG demand. (Image source: Adobe Stock)

Shell forecasts that global demand for LNG will rise by around 60% by 2040, in its newly-issued Shell LNG Outlook 2025

LNG demand is now expected to reach 630-718mn tonnes a year by 2040, largely driven by economic growth in Asia, the need to decarbonise heavy industry and transport and the impact of energy-intense artificial intelligence.

Global LNG trade grew by only 2mn tonnes in 2024, the lowest annual increase in 10 years, to reach 407mn tonnes, due to constrained new supply development. New LNG supply is limited until the second half of 2025, but more than 170mn tonnes of new LNG supply is set to be available by 2030, helping to meet stronger gas demand, especially in Asia. However, start-up timings of new LNG projects are uncertain, with new projects facing multiple challenges, such as regulatory uncertainty, geopolitical tensions and supply chain issues.

“Upgraded forecasts show that the world will need more gas for power generation, heating and cooling, industry and transport to meet development and decarbonisation goals,” Tom Summers, senior vice president for Shell LNG Marketing and Trading, said.

“LNG will continue to be a fuel of choice because it’s a reliable, flexible and adaptable way to meet growing global energy demand.”

China is significantly increasing its LNG import capacity and aims to add piped gas connections for 150mn people by 2030 to meet increasing demand. India is also moving ahead with building natural gas infrastructure and connecting 30mn people over the next five years.

In the marine sector, a growing order book of LNG-powered vessels will see demand from this market rise to more than 16mn tonnes a year by 2030, up 60% from the previous forecast, with around half the vessels on order in the international maritime market being LNG fuelled. Longer term, existing gas infrastructure could be used to import bio-LNG or synthetic LNG and also repurposed for the import of green hydrogen. LNG is becoming a cost-effective fuel for shipping and road transport, bringing down emissions today and offering pathways to incorporate lower-carbon sources such as bio-LNG or synthetic LNG; around one in five trucks sold in China today are LNG-fuelled.

Europe will continue to need LNG into the 2030s to balance the growing share of intermittent renewables in its power sector and to ensure energy security. In the longer term, existing natural gas infrastructure could be used to import bio-LNG or synthetic LNG and be repurposed for the import of green hydrogen.

Significant growth in LNG supply will come from Qatar and the USA. The USA is set to extend its lead as the world’s largest LNG exporter, potentially reaching 180mn tonnes a year by 2030 and accounting for a third of global supply. Qatar and the USA are together likely to account for 60% of global supply by 2025.

Shell to step up liquefaction capacity

At the International Energy Week (IE Week) Conference hosted by the Energy Institute in London, Cederic Cremers, executive director at Shell, highlighted the increasing importance of LNG in the company’s own portfolio, saying that between now and 2030, Shell is growing its liquefaction capacity by 20-30%, the fastest it has ever grown in a five-year period. The company is progressing projects in Canada, where it is aiming to start LNG exports from its LNG Canada project this year, Nigeria, and Qatar. The company is also a partner in the Ruwais LNG project in the UAE. Between 2030 and 2040 Shell is looking at a potential next phase at LNG Canada, as well as a fourth train in Oman with the government and partners, on the back of new gas discoveries. Shell also in December signed a project development agreement with Argentina’s state-run oil company YPF to advance the development of the Argentina LNG project. Other options are also on the cards, Cremers said.

The importance of LNG as a transition fuel was a key theme at IE Week. Dr Fatih Birol, executive director of the IEA, commented that the huge amount of LNG set to come on to the market between 2026 and 2028, mainly from the USA and Qatar, is likely to result in the gas market shifting from a sellers’ to a buyers’ market.

The contracts awarded cover a wide range of industrial sectors. (Image source: OOMCO)

Oman Oil Marketing Company (OOMCO) has awarded contracts to nine Omani Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs), worth OMR 1.45 million (US$3.77mn) across multiple sectors, including logistics, technology, infrastructure, and retail

The agreements are in line with OOMCO’s commitment to supporting local businesses, enhancing In-Country Value (ICV), and contributing to Oman Vision 2040.

They provide sustainable growth opportunities for local enterprises, helping them to expand their expertise and enhance their competitiveness in the market.

Digital growth

The awarded contracts cover a wide range of industries and services including retail, technology, engineering, and facility management. In the retail and customer service sector, the agreements include maintenance services for Ahlain shops and the introduction of a Pick-Up and Drop-Off (PUDO) logistics service.

Digital transformation initiatives include the integration of a QR-based ordering platform at Café Amazon and the implementation of Know Your Customer (KYC) verification within the OOMCO Mobile App, further strengthening the company’s digital capabilities.

In the engineering and infrastructure sector, the contracts cover the installation of above-ground steel tanks as well as fire engine troubleshooting and maintenance, ensuring the highest standards of safety and operational excellence. Facility management and maintenance agreements include essential upkeep for OOMCO’s headquarters.

Tarik Mohammed Al Junaidi, CEO of Oman Oil Marketing Company, said, "Our partnership with Omani SMEs underscores our dedication to fostering local talent and strengthening the national economy. By awarding contracts across diverse industries, we are not only creating business opportunities but also driving innovation, efficiency, and sustainable growth in line with Oman Vision 2040."

Middle East NOCs are proving resilient. (Image source: Adobe Stock)

A new whitepaper from Rystad Energy highlights the plans of the Middle East NOCs to ramp up production and upstream investments, as well as their resilience in the energy transition and different oil demand scenarios

In the NOC/INOC Corporate Strategy Benchmarking whitepaper, Volume 1: Oil & Gas, Rystad Energy notes that Aramco, with its focus on enhancing production at mature oilfields and ramping up gas production, will continue to see upstream investments rise, recording capex of US$29bn in the first nine months of 2024 alone. Rystad forecasts QatarEnergy will invest between US$14-15bn per year over the next few years as it continues to invest heavily in the North Field gas field and expanding LNG capacity, while ADNOC’s expenditure, which reached US$5.7bn last year, is forecast to increase given its target of 5mn bpd production capacity by 2027. The Hail & Ghasha offshore development project, which is set to produce more than 1.5bn standard cubic feet per day (bscfd) of gas before the end of the decade, and the Ruwais LNG project are key ADNOC focuses.

Rystad notes the resilience of the Middle East NOCs in different energy demand scenarios, particularly given their focus on LNG, a key energy transition fuel. It adds that Aramco and ADNOC’s low-cost portfolio and short-cycle return on investments are key factors ensuring their competitiveness.

QatarEnergy is heavily expanding its LNG production, with an eye on longterm demand from Asia, and is forecast to operate nearly 120mn tonnes per annum (Mtpa) of LNG capacity by 2035, with its North Field projects targeting 126 Mtpa by 2027. Qatar could account for 20% of global supply after 2030, Rystad predicts, with continuing incremental expansion, its low breakeven and existing infrastructure ensuring dominance in the LNG market.

ADNOC's LNG capacity is set to expand significantly with the Ruwais LNG project (9.6 Mtpa) starting up by 2028, which will more than double ADNOC's current LNG production capacity, while Aramco has acquired a 49% stake in LNG-focused MidOcean, which has interests in a portfolio of Australian integrated LNG projects, and a 35% stake in Peru LNG.

The whitepaper also notes the focus of the Middle East NOCs on international expansion, with QatarEnergy acquiring multiple blocks in Namibia’s Orange Basin from TotalEnergies and Chevron, and exploration assets in Egypt from Chevron and ExxonMobil; and ADNOC acquiring gas and LNG assets in Africa and the Caucasus, including a 10% stake in Mozambique LNG, and a 30% stake in Azerbaijan’s Absheron gas field from Socar and TotalEnergies. While Aramco has expanded its international LNG portfolio, with its stake in MidOcean as well as acquiring a 25% stake in Port Arthur LNG in the US from Sempra.