UAE announces exit from OPEC and OPEC+
The United Arab Emirates announced today its decision to withdraw from the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the OPEC+ alliance, with the exit taking effect on 1 May 2026.
According to an official statement, the move follows a comprehensive review of the UAE’s production policy, current and future capacity, and is guided by national interest and the need to respond effectively to global market demands.
Following the exit, the UAE said it will continue to act responsibly by bringing additional production to market gradually and in alignment with demand.
It reaffirmed its position as a trusted producer of cost-competitive and lower-carbon barrels that can support both global economic growth and emissions reduction goals.
The country emphasised that the decision does not change its commitment to global market stability or cooperation with producers and consumers. Instead, it will enhance its ability to respond more effectively to evolving market needs.
"We reaffirm our appreciation for the efforts of both OPEC and the OPEC+ alliance and wish them success. During our time in the organisation, we made significant contributions and even greater sacrifices for the benefit of all," the statement read, adding, "However, the time has come to focus our efforts on what our national interest dictates and our commitment to our investors, customers, partners and global energy markets. This is what we will focus on going forward."
The news will no doubt come as a blow to OPEC at a time of ongoing market disruption and geopolitical uncertainty due to the US/Iran war. The loss of the UAE, with its 4.8mn bpd of spare capacity, could have the effect of diminishing OPEC’s production co-ordinating role and its ability to stabilise the market.
"As oil demand approaches a peak and begins to decline, incentives shift. Producers with spare capacity may prioritise monetising reserves and protecting market share over collective restraint," said energy consultancy Rystad Energy. The UAE, with its spare capacity and room to increase output, is particularly well positioned to pursue such a strategy outside the Group.
Head of Geopolitical Analysis at Rystad, Jorge Leon commented, "OPEC and OPEC+ have only ever been as strong as the members' willingness to hold barrels back from the market, and the UAE was one of those. Losing a member with 4.8 million barrels per day of capacity, and the ambition to produce more, takes a real tool out of the group's hands.
"The timing tells you something about where the oil market is going. With demand nearing a peak, the calculation for producers with low-cost barrels is changing fast, and waiting your turn inside a quota system starts to look like leaving money on the table.
"Saudi Arabia is now left doing more of the heavy lifting on price stability, and the market loses one of the few shock absorbers it had left."