Shipowners will need to have confidence in the security of the transiting vessels. (Image source: Adobe Stock)
As an uneasy ceasefire takes hold, huge questions remain about the resumption of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and the time it will take for Middle East operators to restore production
The 11mn bpd of upstream production currently shut-in across the Middle East can only be restored when export logistics normalise, says energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie.
"A 'workable system' of transit and shipowner confidence in the security of the transiting vessels is essential," said Alan Gelder, SVP Refining, Chemicals and Oil Markets at Wood Mackenzie. "This includes availability of insurance for transiting vessels, facilitating commercial trade financing, sustained outbound vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz making current oil on water available to the global refining market, and sustained inbound vessel transits through the Strait making ballasting vessels available to load crude at Gulf load ports. There also needs to be confidence in viability of transit during and beyond the current two-week ceasefire."
"Ballasting vessels are unlikely to enter via the Strait of Hormuz any sooner than a 'just in time' logistics basis, at risk of becoming trapped if hostilities resume," Gelder added. "Onshore storage drawdown remains constrained by over-the-jetty load rates, onshore inventories cannot be instantaneously transferred to ballasting vessels."
As export volumes ramp up, freed up storage capacity will allow upstream production and refining operations to resume. The level of storage varies from around a month for Saudi Arabia and the UAE, to less than two weeks for Iraq and Kuwait.
"The initial recovery from major fields will be more than sufficient to meet the ramp-up of export volumes. Shipping logistics will remain the constraint on upstream recovery for several weeks," said Fraser McKay, head of Upstream Analysis at Wood Mackenzie. "Thereafter, as those constraints begin to ease, the constraints on supply will shift to the upstream production, and this will expose the different challenges each country faces. More than half of most field's previous supply levels could be restored before shipping constraints ease. Thereafter, different recovery profiles will emerge."
McKay noted that it will take countries like Iraq as long as six to nine months to reach prior production levels given the complexities involved, due to both reservoir management and resource constraints.
In other countries, while there is little damage to upstream infrastructure, refineries could require repair. So even though exports will ramp up, previous production highs will take much longer to reach, although ultimately most, but not all production will be restored to prior levels. Restoring production too rapidly could risk doing more long-term damage, however, warned McKay.
Gas recovery
As for LNG supply, even if LNG cargoes are able to exit the Strait of Hormuz, relieving some of the pressure on the gas market, for there to be real structural change in supply the Ras Laffan site in Qatar would need to restart its operable trains, according to Tom Marzec-Manser, Europe Gas and LNG Wood Mackenzie.
Wood Mackenzie assumes that if QatarEnergy began restarting Ras Laffan at the start of May, it would take until the end of August for the 12 trains to return to full service. A restart of just the 41mtpa North site would take just over a month. However the South site which originally had a 36mtpa capacity has sustained damage. These two additional trains will not return to service for a number of years and reduce the site's capacity to 24 mtpa.
Wood Mackenzie assumes the ADNOC's 5 mtpa Das Island LNG plant in the UAE will be able to return to service fairly quickly.
"Outside LNG, domestic gas infrastructure in the UAE has been harder hit than oil, and that recovery process could require longer-term repair work," Marzec-Manser added. "Sustained disruption at Habshan would have wide-ranging implications for domestic gas availability, compelling the UAE to reduce reinjection volumes or increase piped imports via the Dolphin pipeline."