Egypt needs to secure LNG and LPG deals at competitive prices.

The Gulf can help stabilise Egypt’s energy market, says leading energy and commodity trading firm BGN International

From the sun-scorched ports of Alexandria to the industrial sprawl of Suez, Egypt’s energy story is at a critical turning point. For decades, the country enjoyed the luxury of being a net exporter of natural gas, with domestic production more than meeting its own needs. Today, that narrative has flipped. Rapidly rising domestic energy demand – projected to surge by 39% this decade – combined with a worrying decline in local production has left Egypt increasingly dependent on imported fuel. In a country where economic stability and political calm are tightly bound to energy security, this imbalance has become a pressing concern.

The solution doesn’t lie in short-term fixes but in a strategic, Gulf-backed reset of Egypt’s energy market. That means securing long-term LNG and LPG supply deals at competitive prices and, just as critically, using those partnerships to create local jobs, transfer vital technology, and give Egyptians a more active role in powering their economy.

This is not merely an economic argument – it’s a political imperative. With youth unemployment at 19.7% among those aged 20-24, Cairo needs to turn energy investments into engines of job creation. Collaborations with multinational players should go beyond resource extraction, focusing instead on empowering local talent to build, operate, and eventually lead the country’s energy infrastructure. Gulf investment, if properly structured, can help catalyse this shift by demanding that technology transfer and domestic workforce development are baked into every deal.

Addressing supply gaps

Yet, even with the right partners, time is short. Egypt recently issued a tender seeking four LNG cargoes for delivery between February and March, a clear signal that near-term supply gaps must be addressed immediately. Fulfilling urgent gas needs through last-minute tenders would be better served with longer term contracts with serious natural gas players like Dubai-based BGN International, an energy and commodity trading firm with an extensive natural gas division.

The firm already contributes to Egypt’s oil sector through its large stake in the Canadian company Mediterra Energy and its gas operators are steadily growing there. As the largest buyer of LPG from the United States and a key player in global oil and gas flows, BGN has the reach and logistical muscle to secure competitive LNG contracts at a time when Egypt’s import needs are becoming both more urgent and more expensive.

But stabilising Egypt’s energy future isn’t just about meeting domestic demand – it’s about revitalising exports and reasserting the country’s role as a regional energy hub. Egypt already boasts significant infrastructure, from the Idku and Damietta LNG export terminals to its extensive pipeline network. What’s required now is a fresh approach that integrates these conventional assets with forward-looking investments in transition fuels like LPG and LNG.

Flexible approach needed

Here again, companies like BGN International offer a potential model. With decades of experience balancing crude operations alongside transition fuels like natural gas, they demonstrate how energy traders offer countries a flexible range of resources to power economies sustainably. If Egypt can replicate this dual approach – leveraging its geographic advantages while modernising its energy offerings – it could once again become a key exporter to Europe and beyond, even as global markets shift toward cleaner energy solutions.

In the end, the challenge facing Egypt is about more than energy. It’s about restoring confidence – in its economy, in its political stability, and in its role on the global stage. Gulf partnerships can provide the capital and expertise to make that happen. But for those investments to truly pay off, they must come with a commitment to building Egypt’s future not just from beneath the ground – but from within its people.

The current uncertainty around the tariff landscape is reshaping the energy and natural resources sectors.

A new report from Wood Mackenzie highlights the far-reaching implications of ongoing trade tensions for the energy and natural resources sectors

"Trading cases: Tariff scenarios for taxing times", presents three distinct outlooks for the global energy and natural resources industries – Trade Truce (the most optimistic), Trade Tensions (the most likely) and Trade War (the worst outcome) – each painting a dramatically different picture for global GDP, industrial production and the supply, demand, and price of oil, gas/LNG, renewable power and metals through 2030.

“The current uncertainty around the tariff landscape is reshaping the energy and natural resources sectors,” said Gavin Thompson, vice chairman, of energy at Wood Mackenzie. "Lower economic growth will curb energy demand, prices and investment, while higher import prices will raise costs in sectors from battery storage to LNG. Energy leaders must now become masters of scenario planning, preparing for everything from continued growth to significant market disruptions.”

The report highlights the key role of trade policies in shaping the future oil markets, with oil demand in 2030 varying by up to 6.9mn bpd between scenarios. In the Trade Truce scenario, oil demand reaches 108mn bpd by 2030, with Brent averaging US$74/bbl, whereas the Trade War scenario sees demand falling in 2026 and Brent plunging to US$50/bbl.

“Trade policies are emerging as a pivotal force in shaping the future of oil markets," said Alan Gelder, SVP refining, chemicals and oil markets. “Falling oil demand results in the global composite gross refining margin collapsing to break-even levels, creating pressure for the rationalisation of weaker sites, particularly in Europe.”

As for the natural gas and LNG outlook, the Trade War scenario could exacerbate the anticipated global LNG oversupply. In the Trade Truce scenario, LNG prices fall from US$11.2/mmbtu in 2024 to US$7.2/mmbtu by 2030 as the market absorbs a wave of new LNG supply growth. In the Trade Tension scenario, the impact might be limited. However, in the Trade War scenario, prices fall further as Chinese LNG demand falls sharply, while tariffs force buyers to redirect US LNG cargoes.

“Although tariffs pose downside risks to global LNG supply, it is possible there will be more investments in US LNG," said Massimo Di Odoardo, vice president of gas and LNG research at Wood Mackenzie. “With President Trump pointing countries towards buying more US energy, including LNG, to reduce their bilateral trade surpluses, more investments in US LNG plants are likely, also contributing to higher gas demand in North America."

The report concludes that while recent trade agreements have encouraged optimism, it is advisable to plan for divergent trade outcomes.

Thompson said, "Despite recent trade agreements, the global trade landscape remains fraught with uncertainty. In a scenario of escalating tariffs, we anticipate significant impacts on manufacturing and industrial production, which could slow the momentum of low-carbon energy investments. Energy companies must be prepared to adapt swiftly to mitigate risks and navigate supply chain disruptions. With major economies potentially facing prolonged recovery periods, agility in strategy and operations will be crucial for the energy sector in this unpredictable trade environment."

Read the entire report here: https://www.woodmac.com/horizons/tariff-scenarios-taxing-times/

ADNOC awarded contracts for locally-made products at the event. (Image source: ADNOC)

The Make it in the Emirates Forum, designed to boost industrial development and accelerate the localisation of manufacturing, saw a plethora of agreements and partnerships signed to drive forward the localisation of critical oilfield technology and energy-related products and services

The event saw ADNOC partners across its supply chain commit to invest AED3bn (US$817mn) in manufacturing facilities across the UAE, in alignment with ADNOC’s current and future procurement requirements and the Make it in the Emirates initiative. They will create more than 3,500 highly skilled private sector jobs and manufacture a wide range of industrial products including pressure vessels, pipe coatings and fasteners. The facilities include newly operational sites, major expansions and investment commitments.

The facilities have been enabled by commercial agreements ADNOC signed with the companies under its In-Country Value (ICV) program as it plans to locally manufacture AED90bn (US$24.5bn) worth of products in its procurement pipeline by 2030, contributing to the country’s industrial development ambitions and creating employment as well as enhancing the resilience of its supply chain.

They included a strategic partnership agreement with Tubacex, a global leader in advanced tubular solutions, which grants ADNOC perpetual and exclusive rights to utilise Tubacex’s Sentinel Prime premium tubular joint connection technology, which is used for completing oil and gas wells and is designed to handle extreme conditions such as deep-water wells and carbon capture.

Tubacex will establish a dedicated research and development (R&D) centre in Abu Dhabi, advancing the development of the country’s industrial base. The facility will act as a hub for advanced engineering and train highly skilled technicians in-country, contributing to the development of local talent.

Yaser Saeed Almazrouei, ADNOC executive director, People, Commercial and Corporate Support, said, “We welcome our partners’ commitment to advancing local manufacturing through their investments in these state-of-the-art facilities which will strengthen the UAE’s industrial base and create highly skilled private sector jobs. These investments reflect ADNOC’s ongoing drive to support the ‘Make it in the Emirates’ initiative and localise strategic industrial capabilities through our In-Country Value program.”

ADNOC announced the award of contracts valued at AED543mn (US$147.8mn) to nine of its suppliers for locally made industrial products to be used across its value chain. They included Al Ghaith Industries, Union Chlorine LLC, C1 Water Industries LLC, RAK CHEM Industries and EMOCHEM. The agreements were enabled by ADNOC’s In-Country Value (ICV) program and span a diverse range of products including personal protective equipment (PPE), chemicals for drilling and production, valves, biodiesel and corrosion inhibitors. The agreements will strengthen the resilience of ADNOC’s supply chain, reduce reliance on imports and create more private sector jobs for Emiratis.

ADNOC Logistics and Services announced a proof-of-concept trial it has selected to assess the suitability of US-based REGENT’s electric seaglider for transporting personnel to and from offshore energy infrastructure. REGENT’s ‘Viceroy’ seaglider – a next-generation maritime craft – combines the speed of an aircraft with the convenience of a boat, offering high-speed, zero-emission transport. The proof-of-concept is the first phase in a potential multi-stage deployment that could see the technology incorporated more widely across ADNOC L&S’s offshore logistics operations.
REGENT will manufacture its electric seagliders in the UAE and will provide aftermarket services such as maintenance, boosting local manufacturing capabilities and strengthening the UAE’s industrial base. The proof-of-concept trial will also be managed by a UAE-based seaglider operator, delivering additional in-country value and positioning the UAE as a hub for advanced maritime innovation. The proof-of-concept trial aligns with ADNOC Group’s broader Net Zero by 2045 ambition.

NMDC Group, a global leader in engineering, procurement, construction (EPC), and marine dredging signed a number of agreements and partnerships at the Forum, aligning with Make it in the Emirates ambitions to drive forward industrial growth. The company signed a collaboration agreement with Jiangsu Juxin Petroleum Steel Pipe, with the long-term aim to establish fabrication facilities in the UAE for metallic pipes to be primarily used in the dredging sector.

NMDC Energy signed an MoU with Al Gharbia, the Abu Dhabi based advanced pipeline manufacturer, to explore ways to accelerate pipe production in the UAE to meet local and regional demand. Al Gharbia is one of the most technologically advanced Longitudinally Submerged Arc Welded (LSAW) Pipe manufacturers in the world and one of the first large scale manufacturers to embrace industry 4.0.

While NMDC LTS, a business vertical of NMDC Group, announced the establishment of a Joint Venture with Chaoda to establish a facility in the UAE that will assemble, fabricate, and distribute valves to be used in the energy sector.

The project will support Aramco's production targets.

NesmaKent Energy Company (NKJV), a joint venture between Saudi Arabia’s Nesma & Partners (N&P) and global engineering company Kent, has won its first project management contract (PMC) from Aramco under the National EPC Champion Initiative

The inaugural seed project under this agreement focuses on enhancing water handling facilities in the South Ghawar Area, a critical initiative aligned with Aramco’s long-term corporate strategy to sustain crude oil production and meet Maximum Sustainable Capacity (MSC) targets. NesmaKent’s expertise in EPCM services, advanced execution technologies, and operational efficiency will play a crucial role in optimising the project's success while ensuring minimal operational disruptions.

Aramco’s National EPC Champion Program was launched to support a growing, sustainable national economy by creating jobs and contributing to the Kingdom’s GDP. NesmaKent was formed to support the execution of Saudi Aramco’s EPC projects within the industrial sector, integrating local expertise with global engineering standards. NesmaKent JV specialises in EPCM services, sustainability-driven solutions, and advanced digital execution technologies.

NesmaKent’s role in the current project will involve streamlining the transition from Design Basis Scoping Paper (DBSP) to the Front-End Engineering Design (FEED) stage; enhancing operational excellence and risk management; accelerating knowledge transfer and national workforce development; deploying advanced execution technologies; advancing sustainability solutions and boosting supply chain efficiency and regional expansion.

By adopting these innovative strategies and forward-thinking execution models, NesmaKent is setting new benchmarks in EPCM services and strengthening Saudi Arabia’s position as a leader in global energy infrastructure development, the company comments.

“Our partnership with Aramco under the National EPC Champion Program reflects our unwavering commitment to excellence, innovation, and sustainability,” said Ahmad Hamadah, general manager, NesmaKent. “With a combination of local market knowledge and world-class engineering expertise, we are not only delivering projects but actively shaping the future of Saudi Arabia’s energy sector.”