OPEC+ is likely to follow through on its plan of unwinding barrels in the second quarter of the year. (Image source: Adobe Stock)

US President Donald Trump's tariffs are expected to be short-lived and the best course of action for OPEC+ would be to go ahead with the plan of unwinding supply in the second quarter of the year, according to new research from Rystad Energy

The impact of tariffs is likely to result in crude and product surpluses in Canada and Mexico while driving shortages for both in the US system, sending an overall bullish signal to the market.
Oil prices touched a high of near US$82 per barrel by mid-January on tighter Russian sanctions.

With these tariffs emerging – 25% on Canada and Mexico and 10% on China – prices are expected to stay around the US$75 range, assuming OPEC takes action to maintain market stability in response to the tariffs.

Global head of Commodity Markets - Oil, Mukesh Sahdev said, “OPEC+ is facing a new challenge with President Trump’s tariffs on major crude suppliers, which could disrupt global oil demand and production. While the group may unwind its production cuts as announced in the second quarter to manage market stability, tariffs on Canada and Mexico could force both countries to redirect crude, impacting US refineries and leading to potential price hikes.

Acting cautiously

"OPEC+ is likely to act cautiously, balancing its efforts to stabilise prices while also dealing with geopolitical tensions. As Canada heads into an election, its likely hard stance in retaliation could further complicate efforts, requiring OPEC+ to put in extra effort to ensure balance in the market.”

Currently, OPEC+ is primarily addressing the challenge of surplus supply by implementing cuts, while hoping for a recovery in demand that will allow for the reversal of these cuts. However, this seems less likely, with China delivering a much lower-than-expected recovery for several quarters. The tariffs implemented by the Trump administration will negatively affect demand, not only for the target countries but also globally, including the US.

Despite potential risks to demand from the new US administration's measures, OPEC, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) and the International Energy Agency (IEA) all project global oil demand growth to exceed 1mn bpd in 2025, Rystad points out. The signal is that tariffs, if kept for long, have the potential to cause production losses in Canada and Mexico, which could help OPEC+ to unwind barrels. There is scope to bring back an average of 5.8mn bpd of extra crude from OPEC+ in case of significant loss from Canada and Mexico, says Rystad. The signal is that OPEC+ is likely to bring supply back only to keep a ceiling on prices, and is unlikely to act to lower prices as per Trump’s call.

While President Donald Trump’s return to the White House is thought to provide an upside to oil and gas activity, given his “Drill, baby, drill” initiative, it is likely to have a limited impact on oil and gas production and activity levels, while a more conducive regulatory environment is expected in relation to permits for liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminals, according to the energy consultancy.

The current sanctions and the loss of heavy barrels will also affect the blending of light barrels with heavy barrels to produce Middle Eastern crude grades, adversely affecting light-sweet US shale production. The signal is that the US must plan to source medium-sour crude barrels from other destinations, mainly the Middle East, rather than try to solve any shortages by increasing its light-sweet production. OPEC+ unwinding and offering incremental supply to the US cannot be ruled out.

“All these insights point toward a higher probability of OPEC+ following through on its plan of unwinding barrels in the second quarter of the year,” concludes Rystad.

“The key issues surrounding the Russia-Ukraine conflict, tightening Iran sanctions and European sanctions are likely to take a backseat as Trump seeks to navigate his way through the sanctions, expecting support from OPEC+. Once again, the supplier group finds itself caught between a rock and a hard place as its fights to ensure market stability.”

Under the contract, Viridien will provide advanced land seismic imaging services. (Image source: Viridien)

Viridien has been awarded a three-year contract by Petroleum Development Oman (PDO) to provide advanced land seismic imaging services at its dedicated processing center (DPC) in Muscat, Oman

PDO is the foremost oil and gas exploration and production company in Oman, producing the majority of the country’s crude oil production and gas supply, with a concession spread over more than 75,000 sq km. This makes the DPC a critical proving ground for deploying new technology and workflows that can meet the imaging requirements of PDO’s exploration and production activities.

Advanced algorithms

The new contract will see Viridien’s geophysical experts at the Muscat center, its largest DPC worldwide, working to deploy advanced proprietary algorithms to improve the image quality of PDO’s growing library of seismic data. Oman land data is characterised by complex near-surface conditions and strong multiples. High-resolution velocity model building, and elastic full-waveform inversion will be key to overcoming these challenges and to enhancing subsurface understanding. (Full-waveform inversion (FWI) accurately computes highly detailed, data-driven models of subsurface velocity, absorption (Q) and reflectivity, for use in seismic imaging and interpretation, by minimising the difference between observed and modelled seismic waveforms.) Viridien will also address new challenges, such as increased data density, developing land 4D monitoring and reinforcing synergies between seismic imaging and reservoir characterisation. To support these capabilities, Viridien HPC & Cloud Solutions specialists will deliver the in-house High-Performance Computing (HPC) capacity required to implement the most advanced workflows.

Sophie Zurquiyah, CEO, Viridien, said, "Congratulations to our Muscat DPC team whose technical excellence and outstanding service have led to this new contract award. We will build on this success, by continuing to advance our geoscience and HPC technologies to address PDO’s unique E&P challenges and support their business objectives.”

The new contract continues a longstanding collaboration between Viridien and PDO and follows a previous three-year contract extension from PDO to continue providing advanced land seismic imaging services at its DPC in Muscat. During the time of this contract, Viridien addressed challenges such as adapting to PDO’s transition from cable to node multi-source acquisition, incorporating machine learning into the workflows for both efficiency and improved quality, and supporting PDO in their ongoing challenge to increase the applicability of seismic in reservoir characterisation.

The LNG will be supplied from ADNOC Gas’ Das Island liquefaction facility. (Image source: ADNOC Gas)

ADNOC Gas plc and its subsidiaries have signed a US$450mn three-year LNG supply agreement with Japan’s JERA Global Markets, building on the strong UAE-Japan relationship and aligning with ADNOC’s ambitions to strengthen its position in the global LNG market

The LNG will be supplied from ADNOC Gas’ Das Island liquefaction facility, which has a production capacity of around six million tons per annum (mtpa) and has shipped over 3,500 LNG cargoes worldwide since beginning operations.

Robust UAE-Japan relationship

Fatema Al Nuaimi, chief executive officer of ADNOC Gas, said, "This agreement builds on the robust UAE-Japan energy relationship and decades of collaboration between ADNOC Gas and JERA solidifying our shared commitment to ensuring energy security and enabling a lower-carbon future. We will continue to support Japan’s energy needs and reinforce our position as a reliable partner in the global LNG market.”

Kazunori Kasai, chief optimization officer, JERA Co., Inc. and chairman, JERA Global Markets, said, “As a utility-backed trader, JERA Global Markets’ purpose is to provide energy security to the communities that we serve. This supply agreement with our long-standing partner ADNOC Gas reflects the active measures we take to ensure that our global portfolio remains diverse, flexible, and competitive.”

ADNOC Gas’ Das Island LNG facilities have been supplying LNG to Japanese energy companies for 48 years. This latest agreement, building upon a similar 2023 supply agreement, further cements the legacy of collaboration between the UAE and Japan, reflecting ADNOC Gas' role as a preferred LNG supplier to key global markets.

As a lower-carbon energy source, LNG plays a critical role as a transition fuel. ADNOC has ambitions to significantly grow its LNG capacity and strengthen its position as a global LNG player, shipping LNG to a growing range of international markets in Asia, Europe and beyond. Earlier this month, ADNOC Gas awarded contracts for facilities to transport feedstock to the Ruwais LNG project, which it is developing on behalf of ADNOC. When fully operational, the Ruwais LNG plant will more than double ADNOC Gas’ current LNG production capacity to more than 15 million tonnes per annum (mtpa). More than 7MTPA of its production capacity is already committed to international customers under long-term agreements.

Energy companies are increasing their investments in cybersecurity. (Image source: DNV)

Energy companies are boosting investment in cybersecurity, seeing it as the greatest current threat to their business, according to DNV Cyber’s latest Energy Cyber Priority report

Two in three energy professionals (65%) say their leadership views cybersecurity as the greatest current risk to their business, according to the report, with 71% expecting their company to increase investment in cybersecurity this year.

Energy companies are making progress in cybersecurity, with growing attention being paid to employee training and securing operational (OT systems). Challenges remain, however, as the energy transition creates new attack opportunities, threat actors become more sophisticated and digital technologies potentially increase exposure to cyber risk.

Of the 375 energy professionals surveyed globally for the research, three-quarters (75%) report that their organisation has stepped up the focus on cybersecurity because of growing geopolitical tensions over the last year, with the threat from cyber-criminal gangs and malicious insiders becoming increasing concerns.

“Achieving the energy transition is central to society at large. The whole energy sector – companies and governments alike – are working together on this massive challenge, which is increasingly complex because the technologies underpinning the transition are largely digital and scaling rapidly. With this comes cybersecurity risks,” said Ditlev Engel, CEO, Energy Systems at DNV. “Cybersecurity should be a priority for all players in the energy sector to achieve the climate goals and guarantee energy security, as geopolitics make the world more hostile and uncertain.”

“Even as the energy industry becomes more mature in its cybersecurity posture, it must continue to strengthen and adapt to remain resilient against a growing number of increasingly sophisticated threats. From attacks on supply chains, recruitment of malicious insiders, and the use of AI, adversaries are upping their game and the energy industry needs to keep up,” said Auke Huistra, director of Industrial and OT Cybersecurity at DNV Cyber.

Five challenges

DNV Cyber’s new report argues that energy companies must double their cybersecurity efforts to overcome five principal challenges:
• securing physical infrastructure, to protect against increasing attacks on OT Systems;
• overcoming complex cybersecurity supply chains, as threat actors go to suppliers and sub-suppliers to gain access to companies operating large assets, and 34% of those surveyed suspecting undisclosed breaches among their suppliers.
• increasing employee vigilance, as adversaries are constantly changing their approach and targeting employees with more sophisticated tactics
• embedding new skills in the workforce to prepare for more sophisticated attacks and address skills and knowledge gaps; and
• embracing AI: while 47% of cybersecurity professionals fear they will fall behind unless they harness AI, generative AI enables cyber criminals to launch more convincing scams. Two-thirds of energy professionals (66%) agree that attackers’ use of AI in phishing attacks has made it more difficult to determine whether emails are genuine. 

“To further strengthen their cybersecurity, energy companies should – as a priority – broaden their efforts to secure OT and support greater security and transparency in the supply chain,” said Huistra. “They should reset and redesign cyber’s relationship with the business, take a more innovative approach to training, and build understanding of AI.”