Global oil demand forecast. (Image source: Rystad Energy)

US President Trump’s visit to the Middle East has the potential for significantly impacting oil markets, according to energy consultancy Rystad Energy

Brent oil is hovering around US$65/bbl, buoyed by progress made on US-China trade negotiations, which have also eroded some demand side pessimism. In the Middle East, supply side factors will take centre stage, with possible rollbacks of restrictions on Iranian crude exports.

Rystad Energy believes that OPEC+ will continue to add supply to the market while supply elsewhere is reduced due to US sanctions and tariffs.

The energy consultancy has reduced its oil demand growth prediction from 1.1mn bpd to 0.7mn bpd on the basis that there will still be some lasting impact on trade flows from the tariffs, even if there are rollbacks. Growth would be led by Asia, and a need for stock build-up ahead of the summer and for geopolitical security could be additional growth factors.

On the supply side, Rystad Energy estimates that the core OPEC eight members’ reversal of planned cuts is due to the declining contributions of OPEC+ members such as Iran, Venezuela and Mexico, owing to sanctions and tariffs. Declining supply from other members is also balancing out the OPEC+ unwind without causing a price slide. On the non-OPEC+ side, the expectation of US crude production in 2025 has been revised downwards to approximately 0.3mn bpd, while new projects in Brazil have the potential to add around 0.4mn bpd in 2025 and 2026.

Overall, Rystad Energy analysis signals upside in oil prices and refinery margins towards the summer.

Mukesh Sahdev, senior vice president, global head oil commodity markets – oil at Rystad Energy commented, “President Trump’s Middle Eastern tour is timed very well, as it is just ahead of Memorial Day weekend, when prices at the pump will play a key role in driving demand. Preventing any oil price spikes in the summer will likely remain central to the president’s agenda.

“Refinery crude demand is on a growth curve between May and August, signalling a more bullish oil price environment.

“With non-OPEC+ producers around the world not growing their production and entering seasonal maintenance, the OPEC+ decision to add extra barrels in May and June fits well into that agenda. This becomes even more important as potential US-China trade resolution erodes demand concerns and GDP risk.

"The big unknown for the market is how US actions related to Iran, Russia and Venezuela will result in supply disruptions or additions. The US could take advantage of softening prices to fill the strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) with Middle East barrels. Will President Trump find middle ground while in the Middle East? Overall, the core OPEC ‘eight’ wield the greatest influence on the oil market’s future trajectory.”

HE Dr. Sultan Al Jaber, chairman of AIQ, signed the agreement with QazaqGaz, represented by CEO, Sanzhar Zharkeshov. (Image source: AIQ)

AIQ, Abu Dhabi's AI champion for the energy sector, continues to expand its global footprint with the signing of several agreements with Kazakhstan to advance AI and digital transformation in oil and gas, during the official state visit by HH Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi to the Republic of Kazakhstan

During the visit, AIQ and Samruk-Kazyna, Kazakhstan’s sovereign wealth fund, signed a cooperation agreement to enhance digital transformation in Kazakhstan’s energy sector. The agreement also covers knowledge exchange and the adoption of best practices in the fields of AI, asset digitalisation, and autonomous operations. The two organisations will also explore opportunities for the implementation of digital solutions to optimise oil and gas exploration, production and infrastructure management.

AIQ will support the deployment of pilot projects and use cases in the areas of AI and digitalisation, with the view to fostering long-term cooperation in R&D to support Kazakhstan’s national goals for technological modernisation and energy sector resilience.

AIQ also entered a strategic agreement with QazaqGaz, Kazakkstan’s national gas company, to implement advanced AI solutions for reservoir and geological analysis, allowing AIQ’s Reservoir Performance Advisor (RPA) module from its Advanced Reservoir 360 (AR360) solution and the AI-based thin section interpretation application, RockInsight, to be utilised by QazaqGaz.These tools together provide actionable insights to optimise production, reduce operational costs, and enhance overall subsurface performance. The agreement between AIQ and QazaqGaz will also facilitate the exchange of expertise, best practices, and technological know-how in AI, asset digitalisation, and autonomous operations.

AIQ also entered a similar collaboration agreement with KazMunayGaz, Kazakhstan’s national oil and gas operator, allowing for its AR360 Reservoir Performance Advisor (RPA) module to be utilised by KazMunayGaz, as well as cooperation in the fields of AI, asset digitalisation, and autonomous operations.

Amin H. Nasser, president and CEO, Aramco. (Image source: Aramco)

Aramco recorded a robust Q1 financial and operational performance, with net income of US$26bn, slightly down from US$27.3bn in Q1 2024, and capital expenditure of US$12.5bn

The decrease in net income was mainly due to the impact of lower revenue and other income related to sales as well as higher operating costs.

Capital expenditure for Q1 2025 was up from US$10.8bn for the Q1 2024, mainly due to the expansion of gas development.

Upstream developments

In the upstream sector, Aramco recorded total hydrocarbon production of 12.3 mmboed in the first quarter of 2025 and made 14 new oil and gas discoveries in the Eastern Province and Empty Quarter. The company progressed increment projects to maintain MSC at 12.0 mmbpd, including water injection operations to support the reservoir and crude oil production continued for the Dammam development project, and procurement and construction activities advanced for the Marjan and Berri and Zuluf crude oil increments. Aramco progressed its strategy to increase sales gas production capacity by more than 60%, including advancing procurement and construction activities for the Jafurah Gas Plant, part of the Jafurah unconventional gas field development, as well as for the Tanajib gas plant and Fadhili gas plant expansion.

Downstream, Aramco made progress in capital projects such as the construction of the refinery-integrated petrochemical steam cracker being developed by S-OIL, the Amiral expansion at the SATORP refinery, and other projects. Aramco also progressed the strategic expansion of its global retail network, with agreements to acquire 25% equity stake in Unioil Petroleum Philippines, one of the largest petroleum companies in the Philippines.

In the lower carbon sector, the company made headway in blue hydrogen development, completing the acquisition of 50% equity interest in Blue Hydrogen Industrial Gas company, a subsidiary of APQ, through which Aramco and APQ plan to develop a lower-carbon hydrogen network in the Kingdom’s Eastern Province, and launched a CO2 Direct Air Capture pilot plant, marking a significant step in the company’s efforts to expand its DAC capabilities and set to accelerate DAC deployment throughout the region.

Aramco president & CEO Amin H. Nasser said, “Global trade dynamics affected energy markets in the first quarter of 2025, with economic uncertainty impacting oil prices. In this context, Aramco’s robust financial performance once again demonstrated the company’s unique scale, its reliability and flexibility, the value of its low-cost operations, and its emphasis on efficiency and advanced technology.”

The countries of the region are keen to unlock the potential of their unconventional resources. (Image source: Adobe Stock)

Core Laboratories, a leading provider of proprietary and patented reservoir description and production enhancement services, has launched a state-of-the-art Unconventional Core Analysis Laboratory in Dammam, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, developed in collaboration with its partner, Abdulla Fouad Group

The Abdulla Fouad Core Lab facility is set to become a central hub for unconventional core analysis in the region, providing valuable insights into unconventional reservoir properties, thereby assisting the operator in optimising the appraisal, development, and production of these unconventional fields. The laboratory is equipped with advanced proprietary instrumentation designed to provide comprehensive core and fluid analysis services tailored to unconventional reservoirs. This will assist senior scientists in performing enhanced petrophysical analysis and digital rock characterisation, using a number of advanced technologies and analytical techniques, including dual energy CT-scanning, high-frequency Nuclear Magnetic Resonance ('NMR'), and Core’s proprietary PRISM workflow. These services are designed to provide clients with detailed reservoir rock and fluid characterisation, facilitating informed decision-making throughout the appraisal, development, and production lifecycle.

“The introduction of these laboratory capabilities represents a significant milestone in our ongoing efforts to support the energy sector's evolving needs,” said Larry Bruno, CEO of Core Laboratories. “This collaboration with Abdulla Fouad reflects our shared vision of leveraging innovative solutions to address the complexities of unconventional resource development.”

Unlocking the potential

The countries of the region are keen to unlock the potential of their unconventional oil and gas resources. Saudi Arabia is home to the Jafurah gas field, the largest liquid-rich shale gas play in the Middle East, estimated to contain more than 200 trillion scf of gas and 75bn bbl of condensates. The field is currently being developed, with initial production expected to commence in 2025 and plans to ramp up to reach a sustainable sales gas rate of two billion scfd by 2030, in addition to significant volumes of ethane, Natural Gas Liquids (NGL) and condensate.

While Abu Dhabi holds an estimated 220 bbl of unconventional oil and 460 Tcf of unconventional gas in place. ADNOC is currently unlocking potential unconventional gas resources as part of its integrated gas strategy so that the UAE will become gas self-sufficient by 2030, with additional 1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) set to be unlocked from the Ruwais Diyab concession before 2030.