The energy trilemma was the focus of discussion at the session. (Image source: AIEN International Summit)

At final session of the AIEN International Energy Summit, held in Istanbul from 10-12 June,  the trilemma of energy security, affordability, and sustainability was in the spotlight

The panel also debated whether profitability should be considered the fourth leg of the trilemma.

Moderator Jay Park KC, managing partner, Park Energy Advisory Ltd asked the panel what the current priorities were of the triangle, and if we were seeing a shift to one corner.

Yelda Guven, VP Policy, EMEA, ExxonMobil Low Carbon Solutions said, “That’s the challenge – how do you make sure energy security and affordable energy can reach the growing population, but do it in a low carbon way? The industry knows how to reduce emissions but it needs support.”

Leonardo Sempertegui, general legal counsel, OPEC added, “While the perspective of security has been in everyone’s attention in recent years, it has been in the developing world for a long time. There is no way out of poverty without stable and abundant energy. At this point, thinking about reducing certain sources of energy with the objection of reaching an ‘artificial’ target – it is bringing some countries to a complicated position. What they need is development. So, this triangle has different legs in each jurisdiction.”

Carlos Bellorin, EVP Macro Research & Advisory, Welligence Energy Analytics agreed: ‘The corners of the triangle are always shifting. Security is currently a top priority to some countries due to ongoing turmoil around the world. Affordability affects everyone in the world. Sustainability hasn’t disappeared – we know a low carbon future is the way forward.’

Graham Kellas, SVP, Global Fiscal Research, Wood Mackenzie was asked how to balance sustainability in light of the growing demand for oil and gas. “10 years ago, the oil price had just crashed and there was the Paris agreement. We saw the level of total capital investment in energy supply rise in low carbon and renewables from one third to a half, while oil and gas came down. And then Covid happened and the momentum behind the sustainability bit of our triangle flipped to affordability. Then in the third phase, after February 2022 and the Russian invasion, it has turned to security. The level of investment into renewables has remained constant, but we have seen an uptick in oil and gas. Diversification is what is underplaying it, and we are not going to an end point with no fossil fuels being produced – there will always be a diverse range.”

At this point, a member of the audience asked if ‘profitability’ actually turned this into a ‘quadrilemma’.

“That’s spot on!’ said Kellas. “This is something that is sometimes lost in the conversation – the need for private companies to make a return for shareholders. There is a certain return you can make from risk-free bonds, so why would you invest in a new emerging project with all the risks attached? You can’t just tell companies that they must do “this or that” without acknowledging that shareholders need to see a return on their investment.”

Guven agreed. “This is what the public debate doesn’t cover enough! The private sector is beholden to shareholders. You have to have that return or no one will invest in the energy transition.”

Sempertegui slightly disagreed on the terminology. “I still think it is a trilemma. Profitability falls within sustainability, just not in terms of emissions. We have a system to sustain – we can’t just reverse 300-400 years of history. As long as we make policy based on facts and realities, we’re fine and going somewhere. When some actors think there is an ideology and have their own agenda, we are in a different scenario. So, I think it is a trilemma, but I appreciate these are semantics.”

The conferences will serve as national platforms for collaboration, thought leadership and knowledge-sharing. (Image source: Ministry of Oil)

Kuwait's Ministry of Oil is set to host two strategic conferences this September focusing on digital transformation and asset integrity/process safety

The 2nd Digital Transformation Kuwait Oil & Gas Conference will be held from 8–9 September 2025, followed by the inaugural Asset Integrity and Process Safety Kuwait Conference, taking place from 10–11 September 2025, both at the Jumeirah Messilah Hotel, Kuwait.

Supported by the Kuwait Oil Company and Kuwait Integrated Petroleum Industries Company, these official platforms will individually bring together over 500 senior decision-makers, 40+ expert speakers, and 50+ global and regional solution providers. Together, the conferences serve as a cornerstone for advancing Kuwait’s energy future, through digital innovation and world-class integrity and process safety standards.

Advancing Kuwait’s strategic energy vision

The 2nd edition of the Digital Transformation Kuwait Oil & Gas Conference builds on the success of its inaugural edition and will address Kuwait’s national agenda for energy digitalisation. Key themes include the deployment of artificial intelligence, automation, digital twin technology, predictive analytics, and cyber resilience across upstream, midstream, and downstream operations.

The inaugural Asset Integrity and Process Safety Kuwait Conference provides a dedicated platform for addressing integrity management, process safety practices, and operational reliability across critical energy infrastructure.

The Ministry of Oil, which leads national energy policy in alignment with Vision 2035, stated, “At the Ministry of Oil, we recognise that advancing digital transformation, asset integrity, and process safety is not only vital to the resilience of Kuwait’s energy infrastructure but also to the realisation of our long-term national development goals. These priorities underpin our efforts to build a future-ready oil and gas sector—one that is safe, efficient, and globally competitive.

“These conferences serve as national platforms for collaboration, thought leadership, and knowledge-sharing—bringing together global and regional experts, industry leaders, and government entities to chart a collective path toward smarter, safer, and more sustainable energy systems.”

Mohammad Al-Abdeljalil, Deputy CEO (Planning & Innovation), Kuwait Oil Company (KOC) commented, “KOC remains committed in its dedication to driving digital transformation across the energy cycle. The 2nd Kuwait Digital Transformation Oil & Gas Conference is more than an event, it is a demonstration of our leadership in adopting cutting-edge technologies and fostering collaboration that will define the future of Kuwait’s oil and gas industry.

Learn more at: www.kuwaitoilandgasdigitaltransformation.com | www.aipsmkuwait.com

The RGD project will enable the development of new gas reservoirs, (Image source: ADNOC Gas)

ADNOC Gas has awarded US$5bn in contracts for the first phase of its Rich Gas Development (RGD) Project, its largest-ever capital investment

The contracts involve expanding key processing units to increase throughput and improve operational efficiency across the onshore Asab, Buhasa and Habshan facilities and the offshore Das Island liquefaction facility. The company intends to take FIDs on two additional phases of the RGD project at Habshan and Ruwais to boost production capacity to meet growing market demands.

The RGD project will enable the development of new gas reservoirs, which are key to boosting liquid gas exports, supporting gas self-sufficiency in the UAE, and providing essential feedstock to the country’s growing petrochemical industry. Phase 1 of the RGD project focuses on optimising and debottlenecking existing gas assets while unlocking new and valuable gas streams.

New contracts

EPCM contracts awarded for Phase 1 consist of a US$2.8bn contract awarded to Wood for the Habshan facility, one of the largest gas processing facilities in the world, US$1.2bn to Petrofac for the Das Island liquefaction facility and US$1.1bn to Kent plc for the Asab and Buhasa facilities.

At the Das Island liquefaction facility, Petrofac will provide EPCM services and oversee procurement and construction contracts to build a new inlet facility, two new gas dehydration and compression trains, each with a capacity of 420 million standard cubic feet per day (MMSCFD), and associated infrastructure. Petrofac will also upgrade existing facilities to increase the site’s capacity for collecting and transporting raw natural gas. These upgrades will significantly increase gas processing capacity to meet rising customer demand.

Located 160 km north-west of mainland UAE, the Das Island facility has been operational since 1977, and is the third longest LNG operation still in production globally. With a liquefaction capacity of six million metric tons per annum (MMtpa), it remains a key component of the nation’s LNG export strategy.

Wood’s EPCM package for the long-term gas processing facilities at the UAE’s Habshan facility includes the delivery of substantial upgrades and debottlenecking solutions to the existing Habshan and Habshan 5 gas processing mega-complexes and pipelines, including brownfield modifications and the installation of new facilities. Habshan is one of the largest gas process complexes in the world.

Ken Gilmartin, CEO at Wood, said: “ADNOC Gas’ RGD programme is pivotal to the UAE’s energy security strategy and broader economy. We’re proud to be at the heart of such a significant initiative.

“Wood gained extensive knowledge of Habshan delivering the front-end engineering design and we will deliver the EPCM phase while the facilities remain fully operational in order to sustain critical gas supply.”

Fatema Al Nuaimi, chief executive officer of ADNOC Gas, said, “The FID and contract awards for the first phase of the Rich Gas Development project mark a significant milestone in ADNOC Gas’ strategy to deliver +40% EBITDA growth between 2023 and 2029. This strategic investment is expected to deliver significant new value for our shareholders and enable continued sustainable growth for the company, our employees, and the UAE.”

Global upstream oil investment is forecast to decline this year.

Global upstream oil investment is set to fall this year for the first time since the Covid slump in 2020, with upstream oil and gas spending gravitating to the Middle East, according to the 2025 edition of the IEA’s annual World Energy Investment report

The forecast 6% drop, the steepest since 2016, is driven mainly by a sharp decline in spending on US tight oil, and reflects lower oil prices and demand expectations. Upstream natural gas spending is set to maintain the levels seen in 2024. Together, upstream oil and gas investment for 2025 is forecast at less than US$570bn, a decline of around 4%. Of this, 40% is dedicated to slowing down production declines at existing fields. Global refinery investment in 2025 is set to fall to its lowest level in the past 10 years.

In contrast, investment in new LNG facilities is on the rise, with new projects in the USA, Qatar, Canada and elsewhere set to come online. Between 2026 and 2028, the global LNG market is set to experience its largest ever capacity growth, with the USA set to nearly double its export capacity.

Global spending on upstream oil and gas is gravitating to the Middle East, the report finds, which is set to invest around US$130bn in oil and gas supply in 2025, around 15% of the global total. The region accounts for around 30% of global oil production and 17% of global natural gas production.

Saudi Arabia’s upstream oil and gas investment is the highest in the Middle East, and is set to reach US$40bn in 2025, nearly 15% higher than in 2015. In Qatar, domestic investment has ramped up sevenfold since 2015 with the accelerated development of the huge North Field, while foreign investment has quadrupled in the same period.

Global capital flows to the energy sector are is set to rise in 2025 to a record US$3.3 trillion, a 2% rise in real terms on 2024, despite headwinds from elevated geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty, with clean energy technologies attracting twice as much capital as fossil fuels. Around US$2.2 trillion is forecast to be invested in renewables, nuclear, grids, storage, low-emissions fuels, efficiency and electrification, twice as much as the US$1.1 trillion going to oil, natural gas and coal.

This investment in clean technologies reflects not only efforts to reduce emissions but also the growing influence of industrial policy, energy security concerns and the cost competitiveness of electricity-based solutions, according to the report.

“Amid the geopolitical and economic uncertainties that are clouding the outlook for the energy world, we see energy security coming through as a key driver of the growth in global investment this year to a record US$3.3 trillion as countries and companies seek to insulate themselves from a wide range of risks,” said IEA Executive director Fatih Birol. “The fast-evolving economic and trade picture means that some investors are adopting a wait-and-see approach to new energy project approvals, but in most areas we have yet to see significant implications for existing projects.”

Also highlighted in the report is the dominance of China as the single largest investor in energy, with its share of global clean energy spending rising from a quarter to almost a third. “When the IEA published the first ever edition of its World Energy Investment report nearly ten years ago, it showed energy investment in China in 2015 just edging ahead of that of the United States,” Dr Birol added. “Today, China is by far the largest energy investor globally, spending twice as much on energy as the European Union – and almost as much as the EU and United States combined.”

The report also underlines the rise in electricity investments and the doubling of global spending on low-emissions power generation, led by solar PV, with investment in solar expected to reach US$450bn this year, making it the single largest global energy investment item. Battery storage investments are also climbing rapidly. Investment in grids, however, currently standing at US$400bn per year is failing to keep pace with spending on generation and electrification, with obstacles being lengthy permitting procedures and tight supply chains for transformers and cables.

Spending patterns remain very uneven globally – with many developing economies, especially in Africa, struggling to mobilise capital for energy infrastructure, the report finds. Today, Africa accounts for just 2% of global clean energy investment. Total energy investment across the continent has fallen by a third over the past decade due to declining fossil fuel spending and insufficient growth in clean energy. To close the financing gap in African countries and other emerging and developing economies, international public finance needs to be scaled up and used strategically to bring in larger volumes of private capital, according to the report.