Middle East and Asia drive global refining growth: Rystad Energy

The Middle East and Asia are driving global refining growth, according to new research from Rystad Energy

Middle Eastern refiners have expanded their refining capacity in the last 20 years from nearly 8mn bpd to around 13mn bpd, with major additions concentrated in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, as the region focuses on adding value through downstream integration. This includes the development of complex, large-scale refineries designed not only to serve growing domestic demand but also to supply refined products to key export markets across the globe. Saudi Aramco for example has invested heavily in expanding its refining footprint, developing advanced complexes such as Jazan and forming joint ventures including YASREF and SATORP.

China has nearly doubled its refining capacity over the past two decades, from 10.6mn bpd in 2005 to 18.8mn bpd in 2025, to meet rising domestic demand and improve energy security, while also positioning the country as a key exporter of refined products. India’s refining capacity has grown from 2.9 million bpd in 2005 to around 5.2mn bpd this year, for similar reasons, including strong domestic consumption and strategic investments in refining infrastructure.

“The Middle East and Asia are driving global refining growth by focusing on large, integrated mega-refineries that secure energy supplies and meet rapidly rising demand. In contrast, Europe and the US are retreating, with older, less efficient plants closing due to high costs and uncertainty over future fuel needs. This shift has sparked a wave of rationalisation, where smaller, less flexible refineries are being shut down while bigger, more adaptable facilities gain ground through economies of scale. Today, nearly all new projects are larger and more economically viable, so even though the total number of refineries worldwide has declined, overall refining capacity continues to grow significantly,” said Arne Skjaeveland, vice president, Oil & Gas Research, Rystad Energy.

Rystad Energy’s research shows that in the last two decades, global primary refining capacity has increased by about 13.5 million barrels per day (bpd), or roughly 15%, while the number of refineries has been in decline since 2011 driven by ageing infrastructure, shrinking profit margins and weakening fuel demand as electrification advances.

As for emissions, emissions intensity across the sector has held relatively steady overall. Asia, followed by the Middle East, has seen total refinery emissions surge, driven by rapid growth in capacity and throughput. The newer, highly complex refineries in Asia and the Middle East tend to consume more energy but often achieve greater carbon efficiency per barrel thanks to modern technologies and tighter integration. Meanwhle, emissions in North America and Europe have remained flat or declined, largely as a result of retrofits and refinery closures rather than gains in carbon efficiency.