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Strong demand is still expected from the booming petrochemicals sector. (Image source: Adobe Stock)

Oil 2024, the latest edition of the IEA’s annual medium-term market report, forecasts that growth in global demand for oil will slow in the coming years as energy transitions advance, with a major supply surplus emerging this decade

The report forecasts that global oil demand, which including biofuels averaged just over 102mn bpd in 2023, will level off near 106mn bpd per day towards the end of this decade, with growth in demand peaking before 2030.

Speaking at a press briefing, Dr Fatih Birol, IEA executive director, highlighted three major drivers of the slowdown:

1. – Transportation – The increasing penetration of electrical vehicles (EV)s. in China, Europe, USA and increasingly the emerging markets, currently accounting for more than one in five car sales. Dr Birol noted the increasing cost competitiveness of electrical cars in China, the driver of EV car penetration. Ongoing fuel efficiency improvements are also a factor;
2. – Electricity generation – Many of the oil producers in the Middle East and North Africa, who currently use a significant proportion of oil to generate electricity, are shifting to renewables or natural gas for electricity generation;
3. – China – Most importantly, the expected slowdown in China’s economic growth to around 4% from just over 6% a year, given the country has accounted for around 60% of demand growth in the last 10 years.

While strong demand growth is expected from fast-growing economies in Asia, as well as from the aviation and booming petrochemicals sectors, this will not be enough to offset the above factors.

Surge in production capacity

At the same time, a surge in non-OPEC global oil production capacity, led by the USA and other producers in the Americas, such as Argentina, Brazil, Canada and Guyana, is expected to outstrip demand growth between now and 2030, with non-OPEC producers expected to account for three quarters of the expected increase to 2030, or 4.6mn bpd. Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Iraq are expected to lead a 1.4 mn bpd rise in OPEC+ oil capacity.

Total supply capacity is forecast to rise by 6mn bpd to nearly 114mn bpd by 2030 – a staggering 8mn bpd above projected global demand, the report finds. There is also the prospect of OPEC+ rewinding production cuts from later this year. This would result in unprecedented levels of spare capacity over the forecast period, with major implications for oil markets – including for producer economies in OPEC and beyond, as well as for the US shale industry.

“Some producers are already making adjustments, with Saudi Arabia putting on hold planned oil capacity expansion to focus on gas, which is where we see the main demand this coming decade,” commented Toril Bosoni, the head of the IEA’s Oil Industry and Markets Division. at the press briefing.

“This report’s projections, based on the latest data, show a major supply surplus emerging this decade,” said Dr Birol, noting the consequences of an oversupply would be downward pressure on prices, with implications both for producers and consumers. “Oil companies may want to look at these supply and demand trends and make sure their business strategies and plans are in line with market realities,” he added.

According to the report, global refining capacity is on track to expand by 3.3mn bpd between 2023 and 2030, well below historical trends. However, this should be sufficient to meet demand for refined oil products during this period, given a concurrent surge in the supply of non-refined fuels such as biofuels and natural gas liquids (NGLs). This raises the prospect of refinery closures towards the end of the outlook period, as well as a slowdown in capacity growth in Asia after 2027.

Celeros Flow Technology will supply two high pressure supercritical CO2 injection packages to ADNOC for carbon capture and storage (CCS) at its Habshan gas plant.

Celeros Flow Technology has won a contract to supply two high pressure injection packages to ADNOC for carbon capture and storage (CCS) at its Habshan gas plant, one of the largest CCS projects in the MENA region

The CCS project, part of ADNOC’s planned US$15bn investment in low-carbon solutions, is designed to achieve a CCS capability of five million tonnes per annum by 2030. The Celeros FT pump packages will handle the captured supercritical CO2 from the ADNOC Gas Habshan facility and transport it by dedicated pipeline to the Bab Far North Full Field Development CO2 Storage Hub, which will receive supercritical CO2 from different suppliers and divert it to consumers within the Bab Far North FFD.

The contract will be fulfilled by Celeros FT’s ClydeUnion Pumps brand, with the skidded packages being assembled and string tested at their flagship site in Glasgow, Scotland. The CO2 injection packages will be some of the  largest in the world. 

Shane Moynihan, Celeros FT’s regional director-Middle East, said, “This CCS project for ADNOC demonstrates how we apply our global capabilities to deliver pioneering solutions for our customers. Our team in Scotland are contributing their vast experience in the design of BB5 pumps to adapt the technology for supercritical CO2 injection, and our Middle East team will provide the technical skills locally to support ADNOC through the commissioning and installation of the pump injection packages at the Habshan gas plant.”

OPEC forecasts that global oil demand will grow by an average of 2.3 mn bpd, year-on-year in the second half of 2024. (Image source: Adobe Stock)

In an article on world oil market prospects for the second half of 2024, in its June monthly oil market report, OPEC forecasts that global oil demand will grow by an average of 2.3 mn bpd year-on-year in the second half of 2024, and by 2.2mn bpd for 2024 in total

OPEC notes that steady global economic growth has continued in the first half of 2024. Growth in non-OECD economies has held up quite well, and better than expected in the BRIC economies. If growth in major OECD economies accelerates in the second half of the year, with non-OECD economies maintaining the momentum of the first half of the year, economic growth for the year could potentially improve further. At present, OPEC’s global economic growth forecast stands at 2.8% for 2024 and 2.9% for 2025, unchanged from OPEC’s May assessment.

China the primary oil demand driver

Demand growth will be driven by non-OECD oil demand, forecast to grow on average by 2.1mn bpd, year-on-year, in the second half of 2024, with China expected to be the primary oil demand driver. The ongoing air travel recovery, healthy driving levels, as well as improvements in manufacturing sector activities are projected to support jet/kerosene, gasoline and distillate demand in the region.

In the OECD, oil demand is estimated to increase by 0.25mn bpd, year-on-year, in the second half of 2024, driven mainly by the USA. Jet kerosene and gasoline are anticipated to be the main regional oil demand drivers, on the back of the summer driving season and continued healthy air travel activity.

OPEC forecasts that in 2025, global oil demand will see see robust growth of 1.8mn bpd, year-on-year, again led by demand in the non-OECD region, which is forecast to increase by 1.7mn bpd.

In anticipation of the OPEC and IEA monthly reports and demand forecasts, and with hopes of increased summer demand, Brent crude has risen slightly to around US$81/bbl, following three weeks of losses related to the OPEC+ agreement to phase out some production cuts later this year.

 

The signing ceremony. (Image source: Worley)

bp and Worley are building on their longstanding collaboration with the formation of a new strategic alliance across bp's global site projects, including in the Middle East

The alliance is designed to maximise efficiency, continuous improvement and value creation. It will save an initial estimated US$40mn over two years in locations where Worley holds a services contract, ie Gulf of Mexico, Oman, Mauritania and Senegal oil and gas producing regions and the Cherry Point, Whiting, Rotterdam, Gelsenkirchen, and Lingen refineries.

Deepening collaboration

bp and Worley will deepen collaboration across a portfolio of site projects by leveraging digital capability and global scale to further drive efficiency across engineering, procurement, construction development and management.

“We remain focused on improving safety, reducing emissions, high value activity, and reducing cost. This alliance increases our operational effectiveness through centralisation, standardisation and simplification, helping us safely grow the value of bp,” said Niall Maguire, VP Site Projects, bp.

“This alliance builds on our successful partnership in the Site Projects Efficiency Plan (SPEP) over the past two years, where we’ve worked together to drive down costs across bp’s global operations. Our shared history and values position us well to identify and implement solutions as we continue to create value and deliver sustainable change throughout bp’s portfolio of projects,” said Mark Brantley, group president EMEA and APAC, Worley.

Oil and gas upstream capex is at the highest level for a decade, according to the report. (Image source: Adobe Stock)

Oil and gas annual upstream capital expenditures rose by US$63bn year-on-year in 2023 and are expected to rise a further US$26bn in 2024, surpassing US$600bn for the first time in a decade, according to a new report from the International Energy Forum (IEF) and S&P Global Commodity Insights

More than 60% of the increase in upstream capex spent between now and 2030 will come from the Americas, according to the Upstream Oil and Gas Investment Outlook report. While the USA and Canada are expected to be the largest drivers of capex growth to 2030, Latin America plays an increasingly significant role in non-OPEC supply growth, particularly for conventional crude, with large expansions in Brazil and Guyana.

Continued upstream investment is still needed to both offset expected production declines and to meet future demand growth, the report highlights, forecasting that a cumulative US$4.3 trillion in new investments will be needed between 2025 and 2030. Annual upstream investment must increase by US$135bn or 22% to reach US$738bn by 2030, based on an outlook that sees demand for oil rising from 103mn bpd in 2023 to nearly 110mn bpd by 2030.

“This investment is vital for supporting energy security and enabling an orderly and equitable energy transition,” the report says. “The past two years have shown the negative impacts of disorderly transitions, such as price shocks, shortages, and a rise in geopolitical tensions.”

Oil demand will plateau, rather than peak and collapse, and could actually remain above 100mn bpd to 2050. However, there is a lot of uncertainty around the demand trajectory and the pace of the energy transition, creating a difficult environment for making investment decisions. Markets need to remain agile and adaptable to changing conditions.

"More investment in new oil and gas supply is needed to meet growing demand and maintain energy market stability, which is the foundation of global economic and social wellbeing," said Joseph McMonigle, secretary general of the IEF. "Well-supplied and stable energy markets are critical to making progress on climate, because the alternative is high prices and volatility, which undermines public support for the transition."

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