Global LNG demand forecast to grow by 65% by 2050
Shell’s LNG Outlook 2026 highlights the strong growth in global LNG demand as well as the increased resilience of the LNG market
Global demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) is expected to increase to nearly 700 million tonnes a year by 2050, an increase of around 65% from 2025 levels, according to the Outlook,
LNG remains a core pillar of the global energy system, with demand driven by Asian economic growth and intensifying energy security risks.
Disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz as a result of the Middle East crisis has shut in around one fifth of the world’s monthly LNG supply since the conflict started, pushing up prices on the spot market and adversely affecting some countries in Asia.
This loss of supply has been partially offset by the ramp up of new liquefaction facilities in North America, improved performance at existing plants and reduced Asian imports of LNG. As a result, total LNG trade in 2026 could be similar to last year, when 422mn tonnes of LNG was traded, if shipping through the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal this summer, before returning to growth in 2027.
“The conflict created a system-wide shock with disruption cascading across all segments of the economy, but the LNG industry has proved resilient and able to adapt to changing market conditions,” said Cederic Cremers, President of Integrated Gas at Shell. “While more investment in both supply and demand infrastructure is needed, the long-term outlook remains strong and LNG will continue to be a stabilising force in the global energy system.”
Supply growth
Around 180 million tonnes of annual new supply is forecast to enter the market by 2030, improving the availability and affordability of gas and opening up demand in new markets. The USA continues to lead new LNG supply growth.
However, the ability to benefit from new supply will depend on the availability of infrastructure in importing countries, including regasification capacity and pipeline connectivity, especially in South and Southeast Asia.
Those regions are forecast to account for around 40% of global LNG imports by 2050 to meet rapidly growing demand for energy with lower emissions than coal. In more mature Asian markets such as Japan, data centres are emerging as a new source of power demand.
Emerging segments of demand are also growing rapidly. According to forecasts, LNG bunkering will grow seven-fold to 27 million tonnes by 2035. LNG will continue to have a vital role to deliver energy security to Europe, to balance intermittent renewables as domestic gas production declines.
To meet the growing demand, significant additional investment will be needed in new LNG liquefaction plants through the 2030s and 2040s, with around 200 million tonnes a year of new supply needed, in addition to projects already under construction.
A more resilient market
Although spot prices of LNG in Asia increased to more than US$20 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) at the peak of the Middle East crisis, they remained significantly lower than in 2022 when gas supplies were disrupted following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, reflecting the greater resilience of the LNG market now.
With long-term supply agreements accounting for around two thirds of total LNG trade, the average price that buyers paid for LNG in May was around US$11-12 per MMBtu, compared to US$7-11 in January before the conflict began.
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