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Dr Manar Al Moneef

Dr. Manar Al Moneef, scientist, capital architect and chief investment officer of NEOM shares learnings from twenty years of infrastructure investment in the Gulf

There is a common misconception about what makes large-scale infrastructure successful. Many assume success is determined when a project is announced, the business case is approved, or the financing is secured. In reality, the true test comes much later.

Every transformational project reaches moments when assumptions evolve, technologies advance, markets shift, and geopolitical realities change. The question is never whether circumstances will change — they always do. The question is whether the institution behind the project has the capability, discipline, and conviction to adapt while remaining committed to its long-term objective.

After more than twenty years working across infrastructure, energy, healthcare, investment, and economic development, I have come to believe that the greatest determinant of success is not the original forecast, the technology, or even the market opportunity. It is the strength of the institution behind the capital.

Projects that create lasting economic value rarely unfold exactly as planned. They succeed because they are supported by institutions capable of learning, adjusting, and continuing to execute without losing sight of their strategic destination.

That distinction matters because the Gulf’s development story is often misunderstood.

The region’s greatest achievement is not that it has launched ambitious projects. Many countries can do that. Its real achievement is building institutions capable of sustaining long-term ambition through economic cycles, technological transformation, and periods of global uncertainty.

The institutions behind long-term success

Much of the discussion around sovereign investment focuses on scale. While the Gulf’s sovereign institutions collectively manage trillions of dollars, scale alone does not explain the region’s ability to deliver transformational infrastructure. What differentiates successful institutions is their ability to think beyond market cycles while continuously creating long-term value. In my experience, three characteristics consistently distinguish institutions that endure:

Strategic clarity. Successful institutions maintain a clear long-term direction while remaining flexible in execution. Markets evolve, technologies improve, and priorities shift, but adapting the route does not require abandoning the destination.

Adaptive execution. Every major project evolves. New information emerges, better solutions become available, and economic conditions change. Strong institutions embrace these changes, improving execution without compromising strategic intent. Adaptability is not a departure from strategy—it is often what allows strategy to succeed.

Institutional commitment. Perhaps the most distinctive characteristic is the ability to sustain commitment over decades. Projects evolve, plans are refined, and priorities are reassessed, but the broader objective remains clear. That continuity enables infrastructure, industries, and capabilities whose value can only be realised over generations.
Together, these characteristics transform ambition into sustained execution.

Three examples of long-term execution

Across the Gulf, there are many examples of institutions demonstrating these principles.

Qatar’s North Field expansion provides a compelling example. The project required significant capital, long-term planning, and confidence in the future role of natural gas in global energy markets. More importantly, it required institutions willing to make decisions based on decades rather than quarterly performance.

Saudi Arabia’s electricity infrastructure is one of the strongest. Over several decades, the Kingdom has consistently invested in generation, transmission, and grid reliability to support industrialisation, urbanisation, and economic diversification. As demand increased and technologies advanced, the system continued to evolve. Today, it stands among the region’s most sophisticated power networks, providing the foundation for future economic growth.

The UAE’s Barakah Nuclear Energy Plant reflects the same institutional discipline. Building a nuclear programme required decades of planning, rigorous governance, technical excellence, and sustained commitment. Beyond generating electricity, Barakah demonstrates what institutions can achieve when they remain focused on a strategic objective while successfully managing complexity and risk.

Different countries. Different sectors. Different technologies. Yet they share the same underlying principle: long-term vision supported by institutions capable of sustained execution.
Vision creates direction. Institutions transform that direction into outcomes.

What this moment is teaching us

The world is navigating one of the most complex periods in recent history. Economic uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, technological disruption, demographic change, and rapidly evolving industries are reshaping the global economy.

In this environment, resilience has become one of the most valuable institutional capabilities. Not resilience as resistance to change. Resilience as the ability to adapt while maintaining direction.

The institutions that will define the next generation of economic growth are not those that attempt to predict every outcome perfectly. They are those capable of remaining disciplined in purpose, flexible in execution, and committed to creating long-term value despite uncertainty.

That is the lesson I have observed throughout my career.

Markets will change. Technologies will evolve. Assumptions will be challenged. The future will rarely unfold exactly as expected. But institutions built on strong governance, strategic clarity, and the ability to adapt without losing focus will continue to create value long after individual market cycles have passed.

Ultimately, the question is not whether projects will encounter challenges. Every meaningful project does. The question is whether the institution behind it has been designed to adapt, endure, and continue building through change.

Because that is how transformative infrastructure is delivered. That is how economies strengthen their foundations. And that is how nations turn long-term ambition into lasting prosperity.

Continued disruption in the Strait of Hormuz continues to weigh on the oil markets. (Image source: Adobe Stock)

The IEA has revised down both its oil supply and demand forecasts as renewed hostilities and Strait of Hormuz disruption have derailed the hoped for recovery in the oil markets

In its August Oil Market report, the IEA forecasts that world oil demand will decline by 1.6mn bpd in 2026, 510,000 bpd more than its previous forecast, thanks to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and continuing high oil prices, although it predicts a return to growth in Q4 2026 and 2027.

Global oil supply rose by 2.4mn bpd to 101.5mn bpd in July, but remained 6.3mn bpd below levels of a year ago, with 8.3mn bpd of Gulf output still shut in. After increasing by 3.7mn bpd in June, Gulf oil production rose by a further 2.5 mn bpd in July to 23.9mn bpd, still 8.3mn bpd below pre-war levels. Regional exports fell by 2.1mn bpd to 15 mn bpd after the Strait was effectively closed once again and tankers came under attack. With no end to hostilities in sight, the IEA now estimates global oil supply to fall by 4.3 mn bpd in 2026, to 102 mn bpd, as growth of 1.4 mn bpd from the Americas only partly offsets losses in the Middle East and Russia.

Refinery crude throughputs increased in July but remained nearly 5mn bpd below last year’s levels, with continued Middle East product export disruptions and attacks on Russian refineries reducing 3Q run estimates by a further 370,000 bpd. Global throughput is now predicted to decline by 2.5mn bpd in 2026 and rebound by 3.5mn bpd in 2027. Diesel, jet fuel and gasoline markets are tightened as reduced Gulf and Russian exports coincide with rising summer travel demand.

Global oil inventories fell in July by 69mn bbl, with renewed disruption to exports from the Gulf and Caspian Sea. Oil stocks now stand at just below 7.9 bbl bbl, down by 2.7mn bpd on average, for the first time since April 2025.

The global oil balance is now expected to show a deficit of 1.8 mn bpd in 3Q26, more than double the estimate of around 800,000 bpd in last month’s Oil Market Report.

“Although the market is projected to return to surplus towards the end of this year, risks remain substantial and the urgency of reopening the Strait has increased, as previously available inventory buffers are rapidly depleting,” the IEA warns.

Baker Hughes will leverage its portfolio of digital and AI automation solutions. (Image source: Adobe Stock)

Kuwait Oil Company (KOC) has signed a further technology collaboration contract related to its Ahmadi Innovation Valley initiative as it seeks to enhance upstream performance through the introduction of the most advanced technologies

Kuwait’s national oil company has signed a multi-year contract with Baker Hughes to accelerate technology innovation in the country’s upstream energy sector. It makes Baker Hughes a key technology collaborator in the Ahmadi Innovation Valley (AIV), KOC’s flagship initiative aimed at establishing an in-country research and innovation hub to address its strategic oil and gas development priorities, bringing together industry academic and technology providers to address upstream technical challenges.

Scalable technology solutions

Through the collaboration, Baker Hughes and KOC will focus on developing and deploying scalable, fit-for-purpose technology solutions that optimise production and flow assurance, while addressing other priorities across KOC’s technology roadmap. Baker Hughes will leverage its portfolio of digital and AI automation solutions that help operators increase recovery from existing wells, lower operating costs, reduce water production and minimise power consumption.

“Baker Hughes is committed to deeply understanding KOC’s development aspirations and providing the solutions needed to help achieve them,” said Baker Hughes Chairman and chief executive officer Lorenzo Simonelli. “Working together, we aim to deliver tailored technology solutions at scale that improve production performance and efficiency, supporting KOC’s goals to maximise value from their assets.”

As part of the agreement, Baker Hughes will build a dedicated research and technology development centre in the Ahmadi Innovation Valley to support the evaluation of new solutions, deliver technology solutions at scale and build local expertise.

It comes after KOC’s signing of a seven-year contract with SLB in June, which will see SLB establish a dedicated AIV facility and support applied research, technology deployment and digital innovation programmes focusing on AI, IIoT applications, production optimisation, reservoir technologies, water management and energy transition initiatives. That was followed by a contract with Halliburton in July which will see Halliburton deploy key technologies to execute a tailored programme of projects and engineered solutions with a focus on digital capabilities through the application of data, scientific analysis, and artificial intelligence for the full field lifecycle.

Shift to collaborative arrangements

These arrangements mark a shift from traditional field services to collaboration and co-creation of technology and innovation. They reflect KOC’s focus on innovation and scaling digital solutions, as it seeks to lift crude oil production capacity to 4mn bpd by 2035, positioning the centre as a platform for applied research and upstream technology development.

ADNOC Gas is accelerating gas expansion. (Image source: Adobe Stock)

ADNOC Gas is accelerating major gas expansion plans in the wake of the UAE’s exit from OPEC, with US$28bn capex set to be invested between 2026 and 2030

Rich Gas Development Project

Announcing its results for the second quarter of 2026, the company confirmed the award of US$8.2bn in EPC contracts for Phases 2 and 3 of the Rich Gas Development (RGD) Project, one of the world’s largest gas growth programmes, with a view to driving 60% EBTIDA growth by 2030. ADNOC Gas sees the UAE’s exit from OPEC as a critical factor derisking this investment, enabling more rich gas production and further supporting profitability of the project.

With a total investment value of US$13.2 billion across three phases, the RGD project is expanding the company’s gas processing capacity. Phase 2, awarded to Wison Engineering, will add a new natural gas processing train at the Habshan facility, while Phase 3, awarded to Tecnimont, will add a new natural gas liquids (NGL) fractionation train at Ruwais, increasing the recovery of high-value liquids from rich natural gas for export.

Phase 1, which involves expanding key processing units to increase throughput and improve operational efficiency across multiple gas assets, is already underway.

The RGD project is one of four mega projects being progressed by ADNOC Gas to meet rising domestic and global energy demand and ensure energy security, as well as contributing to the UAE’s industrial development and economic diversification goals. The others are:

Ruwais LNG

Ruwais LNG, which comprises two LNG liquefaction trains with a total export capacity of 9.6mmtpa, will more than double ADNOC’s LNG production output, and help meet the growing global demand for natural gas, with global LNG demand forecast by Shell to rise by 65% by 2050.

Maximising Ethane Recovery and Monetisation (MERAM)

This will increase ethane extraction by 35 - 40%, from ADNOC Gas’s existing onshore facilities in the Habshan complex through the construction of new gas processing facilities as well as a dedicated 120 km natural gas liquids (NGL) pipeline

Estidama

This will extend the UAE’s natural gas pipeline network operated by ADNOC Gas from approximately 3,200 km to over 3,500 km, enabling the transportation of higher volumes of natural gas to customers in the Northern Emirates of the UAE.

In addition, ADNOC continues to invest across the gas value chain – including the recently announced Bab Gas Cap and Umm Shaif Gas Cap developments, which will bring more natural gas and associated gas liquids into ADNOC Gas’s integrated value chain, supporting additional feedstock, processing volumes, LNG exports and higher revenue streams.

Fatema Al Nuaimi, chief executive officer of ADNOC Gas said, “These strategic investments will significantly expand our natural gas processing and export capacity, unlock lasting value for our shareholders and position ADNOC Gas at the heart of the UAE’s energy future.”

Resilient operations

Despite the disruption arising from the hostilities in the region and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, ADNOC Gas reported resilient results, delivering net income of US$665mn for the second quarter and approving a quarterly dividend of US$940mn. Recovery from the attack on its Habshan gas finality has proceeded ahead of schedule, with gas supply already restored to 85%, and full restoration to be completed by Q2 2027. The company highlights that it has worked closely with customers and partners to mitigate the impact of disruption and fulfil commitments wherever possible.

For the third quarter ADNOC gas projects net income between US$600-800mn, based on the assumption that maritime routes through the Strait of Hormuz continue to be disrupted. If maritime operations are fully restored by the fourth quarter, it expects full-year net income to be between US$3.5-US$4bn.

The Middle East is home to many ageing oil and gas facilities. (Image source: ASCO)

With decommissioning still at an early stage in the Middle East, getting the model right now will reduce risk, protect schedules and build the local skills, infrastructure and supply chains needed for future projects, says Lee Vettese, regional manager – Middle East at ASCO

The Middle East has spent decades building energy infrastructure at exceptional scale. Decommissioning will test a different part of that system, with requirements that extend well beyond offshore removal.

Meeting those requirements is not simply about having contractors available when projects move into execution. It is about building the physical capacity, regulatory frameworks, specialist skills and operating models needed to manage decommissioning safely and efficiently.

Much of the technical debate centres on wells, structures and removal methodology. But the success of a decommissioning programme is also shaped by what happens once material reaches shore.

Closing the infrastructure gap

The quayside and laydown space needed to receive, process and store decommissioning material is often there. What is missing is the investment and technical preparation needed to turn that space into something that meets the sector’s requirements. That includes segregation areas, licensed waste-handling capability, contamination controls and established routes for reuse, recycling, treatment and disposal.

A single project can bring ashore multiple material streams, including steel recovered from equipment, topsides, jackets and tubulars, alongside residual hydrocarbons, produced water, hazardous coatings and NORM-contaminated material. Managing that mix involves assessment, classification, decontamination, heavy lifting, dismantling, segregation and specialist treatment.

Bringing different disciplines, permits and contractors into one programme makes consistent control across the material chain essential. Without reliable traceability and clear ownership, reusable equipment can be treated as waste, while changes in classification or delays in documentation can leave material sitting in storage, create additional handling and compliance issues, and put both cost and schedule under pressure.

The practical test is whether ports and supply chains are equipped to coordinate that complexity at volume. Over the last two years alone, ASCO has managed projects involving more than 30,000 tonnes of material. Managing that volume requires coordinated quayside operations, full traceability and specialist processing. Ports without the right facilities become bottlenecks rather than solutions. If material remains in storage longer than planned, costs rise and schedules come under pressure.

If accountability is fragmented, the interfaces between them become the weak point. An integrated delivery model does not mean one company performs every task. It means there is one clear line of accountability across the onshore chain, from receipt and handling through to dismantling, material recovery and certified disposal. Specialist partners can still be brought in, but safety, schedule, compliance and delivery remain under coordinated control.

The importance of that control becomes clearest when site conditions challenge the plan. On one recent North Sea project, ASCO managed the onshore recovery and downsizing of an approximately 400-tonne subsea isolation valve. When concerns arose around protecting the quayside during cutting, ASCO’s environmental and lifting-assurance teams developed a bespoke load-spreading solution that allowed the work to continue safely. The project achieved a 99% recycling rate, with zero contamination incidents and no damage to port infrastructure.

Building a regional model

The Middle East can learn from mature decommissioning markets without repeating the same learning curve. The North Sea spent years developing port capacity, waste routes, contractor capability and regulatory practice. The region can apply those lessons earlier.

But this is not about importing another market’s model wholesale. Local regulation, geography, infrastructure and commercial priorities differ across the Middle East. The right approach will combine international delivery experience with the knowledge of regional authorities, port operators, asset owners and supply-chain partners.

Local content is central to that. Building decommissioning capability means developing practical expertise in lifting assurance, materials control, radiological supervision, environmental management, dismantling and project coordination. International specialists can support the early phases, but the long-term value comes from growing capability that remains in the region for future projects.

The strongest investment case will come from planning for programmes rather than isolated assets. Greater visibility of likely volumes, timings and material types allows ports and service providers to invest with more confidence and develop complementary regional capabilities.

Early projects will shape the region’s decommissioning model for decades. The opportunity is to create a connected, locally anchored capability that brings ports, specialist skills and supply chains together, giving clients confidence that recovered infrastructure can be managed from quayside receipt to final recovery. Getting that model right now will reduce risk, protect schedules and build the local skills, infrastructure and supply chains needed for future projects.

About the author:

Lee Vettese has more than ten years' experience working across diverse international energy markets in complex, regulated environments, with a specific focus on environmental and decommissioning operations. As regional manager – Middle East at ASCO, he is based in Qatar, where he leads the company's market development, strengthens strategic partnerships, and supports the region's evolving energy and environmental needs.

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