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Shipping activity across the Strait of Hormuz has come to a standstill.

As danger looms over the globally strategic Strait of Hormuz set off by intense geopolitical turbulence from US and Israel's missile strikes in Iran, Independent Commodity Intelligence Services experts are predicting a sharp surge in Brent crude, surpassing 8% in early Asian trade on 2 March 

The prices briefly exceeded US$82 per barrel before easing back above US$78, while WTI traded around US$72. Shipping activity across the Strait of Hormuz has come to a standstill, adversely affecting the Gulf oil and LNG exports. Halt in the movement of LNG tankers since 28 February has disrupted around 120 bcm per year of supply from Qatar and the UAE. To add perspective, this volume is substantial enough to match the gas Europe has lost from Russia since 2021. 

The tensions have sharply reflected on the global petrochemical markets as well, with China recording over 6% rise in methanol futures, reacting to supply concerns from Iran, the world’s second largest methanol producer. According to ICIS analysts, the current uncertainties are likely to prevail long enough to overhaul market expectations and pricing behaviour. Brent can potentially reach as much as US$100 per barrel if the closure persists, although renewed US Iran talks could limit further gains.

The missile attacks, which reportedly killed Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, came amid recent nuclear negotiations in Geneva, adding to already elevated crude prices and heightening uncertainty across global energy and chemical markets.

Location of Ras Tanura

An official source at Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Energy has confirmed that the Ras Tanura oil refinery sustained limited damage on Monday morning after debris from intercepted drones fell in its vicinity.

According to the Saudi Press Agency, the incident occurred at approximately 7:04 AM local time when two drones were intercepted near the facility. Falling fragments reportedly caused a small fire within the refinery complex.

Emergency response teams acted swiftly to contain the blaze, preventing any escalation. Authorities said the fire was brought under control in a short period of time, and no injuries or fatalities were recorded as a result of the incident.

As a precaution, certain operational units at the refinery were temporarily shut down while safety checks were carried out. Officials stressed that the measures were taken to ensure the continued protection of personnel and infrastructure.

Despite the disruption, the Ministry of Energy confirmed that the incident has not affected the supply of petroleum products to domestic markets. Fuel deliveries and distribution channels are continuing as normal, with contingency protocols ensuring stability in local supply chains.

Ras Tanura is one of the Kingdom’s key refining hubs, playing a central role in processing and distributing petroleum products. While the reported damage was described as limited, the event underscores the importance of protective and rapid-response measures at critical energy infrastructure sites.

Authorities have not released further details regarding the origin of the drones or the broader security context surrounding the interception. However, officials reiterated that safeguarding energy facilities remains a top priority, with emergency and security teams maintaining heightened vigilance.

The situation remains under monitoring, with the Ministry indicating that updates will be provided if necessary.

QatarEnergy has suspended production of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and related products following military strikes on its operating sites in Qatar.

The state-owned energy company confirmed that facilities located in Ras Laffan Industrial City and Mesaieed Industrial City were affected by the attacks. As a precautionary measure, LNG output and associated processing activities have been halted.

Ras Laffan and Mesaieed are central to Qatar’s energy infrastructure, housing key gas processing and export installations that support the country’s position as one of the world’s leading LNG suppliers. Any prolonged disruption could have implications for global gas markets, given Qatar’s significant export volumes.

In a brief statement, QatarEnergy said it is assessing the situation and will continue to provide updates as more information becomes available. The company did not disclose the extent of the damage or provide a timeline for the potential resumption of operations.

The suspension marks a significant development for the international energy sector, as Qatar plays a pivotal role in supplying LNG to markets across Asia, Europe and beyond. Industry analysts will be closely monitoring the situation for indications of supply constraints or contractual impacts.

QatarEnergy emphasised that it values its relationships with stakeholders and remains committed to transparent communication during the unfolding situation. Further operational decisions are expected to depend on security assessments and site evaluations.

Authorities in Qatar have not yet released detailed information regarding the broader impact of the reported attacks.

 

Jafurah is estimated to contain 229 trillion standard cubic feet of raw gas and 75 billion stock tank barrels of condensate. (Image source: Aramco)

Aramco has announced the start of production at Jafurah, the Middle East’s largest unconventional gas field, and the commencement of operations at Tanajib Gas Plant, in its drive to increase gas production capacity by around 80% by 2030 over 2021 levels

This is expected to generate incremental operating cash flows of US$12bn to US$15bn in 2030, subject to future sales gas demand and liquids prices. In addition to helping meet rising demand for natural gas, and enhancing supplies to national industries including petrochemicals, Aramco’s gas expansion strategy aims to achieve a better energy mix for domestic electricity production. It also advances the Kingdom’s liquid fuel displacement program, complements the Kingdom’s 2060 net-zero ambition, reinforces energy security and contributes to building a diverse national economy.

Covering an area of 17,000 square kilometres, Jafurah is estimated to contain 229 trillion standard cubic feet of raw gas and 75 billion stock tank barrels of condensate. It is central to Aramco's gas expansion plans. By 2030, it aims to deliver 2 billion standard cubic feet of sales gas per day, 420 million standard cubic feet of ethane per day, and approximately 630,000 barrels of high-value liquids per day.

Aramco started production of the first unconventional shale gas at Jafurah in December 2025, and has leveraged technology to help lower drilling and stimulation costs and boost well productivity.

Tanajib Gas Plant, which also commenced operations in December 2025,  is a key component of Aramco’s strategy to increase gas processing capabilities and diversify its energy product portfolio. It is expected to reach a raw gas processing capacity of 2.6 billion standard cubic feet per day in 2026.

The commencement of operations at Tanajib coincided with the start of production at Aramco’s Marjan crude oil increment. The plant processes associated raw gas from crude oil production at the offshore Marjan and Zuluf oil fields.

Amin H. Nasser, Aramco president & CEO, said: “Jafurah and Tanajib significantly strengthen Aramco’s gas portfolio and expand our capacity at scale. These projects are a major step forward for our company and for the Kingdom’s energy future. Gas is central to our long-term growth strategy. It is expected to generate substantial earnings, meet rising domestic demand, support development across key sectors, and deliver significant volumes of high-value liquids. Together, these investments make Aramco stronger, more diversified and better positioned to deliver sustained value to our shareholders.”

Qatar’s projects will contribute around 40% of the new global LNG supplies over the next decade. (Image source: Adobe Stock)

QatarEnergy has awarded the engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) contract for the onshore LNG plant of the North Field West (NFW) project to a joint venture consisting of Technip Energies, Consolidated Contractors Company (CCC) and Gulf Asia Contractor (GAC)

The scope of the onshore EPC contract includes two LNG mega-trains with a combined production capacity of 16 MTPA (a replication of the two trains under construction by Technip Energies and CCC for the North Field South (NFS) project) as well as associated facilities for gas treatment, natural gas liquids recovery, and helium extraction. In addition to LNG production, the project is expected to produce around 175,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day of condensate, ethane, and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG).

Together with the North Field East (NFE) and NFS expansion projects, the NFW project will increase Qatar’s total LNG export capacity from 77 MTPA to 142 MTPA. The first LNG cargo from the NFW project is expected to be produced by the end of 2031.

As with the North Field East (NFE) and North Field South (NFS) projects, NFW will capture and sequestrate an additional 1.1 MTPA of CO2 to bring the total to 2.2 MTPA from NFS and NFW combined.
In addition to the CCS facilities, the jetty boil-off gas recovery facilities for NFW will recover an equivalent of 0.42 MTPA of CO2, and a significant portion of the project’s electrical requirements will be sourced from Qatar’s solar plants.

His Excellency Mr. Saad Sherida Al-Kaabi, the Minister of State for Energy Affairs, the president and CEO of QatarEnergy said, “This contract represents an important addition to the world’s largest LNG expansion project and reinforces Qatar’s commitment to meeting the growing global LNG demand.

“The North Field West project follows in the footsteps of the North Field East (32 MTPA) and South (16 MTPA) projects, placing strong emphasis on environmental performance. Key features include a carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) capacity of 1.1 MTPA, which takes us closer towards achieving our target of capturing and sequestering more than 11 MTPA of CO2 by 2035."

Arnaud Pieton, CEO of Technip Energies, commented, “This award reflects not only the continuity of our engagement across the North Field developments, but also a crucial contribution to meeting growing global LNG demand. Building on our leadership in LNG and, together with our long-standing partners CCC and GAC, we are proud to continue delivering world-class LNG facilities that combine scale, efficiency, and significantly reduced carbon intensity.”

The world's largest single non-associated gas field, the North Field, spanning over 6,000 sq. km, represents 20% of the world's total gas reserves.

The recent LNG2026 conference in Qatar highlighted the pivotal role of LNG in the global economy. Speaking at the event, H.E. Saad Sherida Al-Kaabi reinforced Qatar’s leading position in the LNG industry, saying that Qatar’s projects will contribute around 40% of the new global LNG supplies over the next decade. QatarEnergy has invested in its fleet, which is set to reach around 200 vessels in the next few years, making it the largest LNG carrier fleet in the world.

He highlighted the importance of demand in driving the LNG industry, in particular from Asia, as well as the Middle East itself.

Shell forecasts that global demand for LNG will rise by around 60% by 2040, in its Shell LNG Outlook 2025. It expects LNG demand to reach 630-718mn tonnes a year by 2040, largely driven by economic growth in Asia, the need to decarbonise heavy industry and transport and the impact of energy-intense artificial intelligence.

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