Gulf energy infrastructure repair bill could top US$25bn
LNG trains, refineries, fuel terminals and critical gas-to-liquids facilities across the region have incurred damage. (Image source: Adobe Stock).
Repair and restoration costs of Middle East war-damaged infrastructure are likely to top US$25bn, and could rise further, according to Rystad Energy assessments
Particularly hard hit has been Qatar’s Ras Laffan Industrial City, where the destruction of LNG trains has triggered force majeure and a 17% capacity reduction, equivalent to about 12.8 million tonnes per annum (Mtpa). A full recovery could take up to five years, given that the gas turbines required to power LNG main refrigeration compressors are supplied by only three original equipment manufacturers (OEM) globally, all of which have production backlogs.
Bahrain has also been badly impacted, says Rystad. BapcoEnergies’ Sitra Refinery was struck twice, damaging two crude distillation units (CDU) and a tank farm, with force majeure declared across group operations. The facility had just been completed under its US$7bn modernisation program in December 2025. Restoring the units could require international contractors to be re-mobilised at considerable cost, as the damaged assets had only recently come online.
There were also disruptions in other countries, including the UAE, Kuwait, Iraq and Saudi Arabia. It is noteworthy that Saudi Aramco was able to swiftly restart operations at Ras Tanura, where maintenance teams were already onsite for a planned turnaround when debris fell inside the perimeter, reflecting its domestic capability.
The speed of recovery in the region will depend on execution capacity and capital deployment timing, as repair spending ramps up. Operators are likely to prioritise restoring existing fields, creating demand for EPC contractors and OEMs, especially those with regional experience and existing agreements with national oil companies. Near-term work will most likely focus on inspection, engineering and site preparation, followed by equipment replacement and construction as procurement constraints ease. In Iran, domestic and East Asian companies will likely carry out most of the repair work given continued Western sanctions, which could be slower and more expensive.
“The Gulf region’s recovery will be defined less by financial capital and more by structural constraints,” said Audun Martinsen, head of Supply Chain Research at Rystad Energy.
“While some assets may be restored within months, others could remain offline for years. Beyond the status of the Strait of Hormuz, every day of damaged or shut-in infrastructure pushes pre-war production capacity further out of reach. Iran’s South Pars offshore field and Qatar’s Ras Laffan facility stand out as particularly concerning cases. The scale of damage and long lead times for critical equipment could result in slow recovery. Urgent repairs will have to take precedence in place of planned expansion.”