Oil prices remain high due to the US/Iran war. (Image source: Adobe Stock)

The oil price continues to hover at around US$100/bbl, despite the largest ever release of emergency oil stocks by IEA member countries

Stocks will be made available by IEA Member countries in Asia Oceania immediately while stocks from IEA Member countries in the Americas and Europe will be made available starting from the end of March, to mitigate what the IEA calls “the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market.”

The oil price reflects continued supply concerns, with no end in sight of the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which around 20mn bpd of oil had previously passed. With Iran threatening to attack ships of those it considers US allies, as well as the threat of potential mines, traffic through the critical chokepoint has almost ground to a halt, prompting President Trump to call for US allies to send ships to secure the Strait.

Nick Butler, head of Strategy at bp and former to adviser to former UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown, warned on the BBC’s today programme that there is likely to be a “significant shortfall of supply over the next two months”, which governments need to prepare for, with a physical shortage of supply in a few weeks’ time. He warned of price volatility and competition between governments for supply.

The Gulf’s energy infrastructure remains under threat from Iran, with Fujairah, a critical storage and bunkering hub, most recently recording damage from drone strikes.

Gulf shut-ins could reduce regional crude output by 70% to around 6mn bpd if the US-Iran war drags on, according to energy consultancy Rystad Energy.

“Further cuts from major Middle East oil producers cannot be ruled out as storage tanks fill to the brim, bypass infrastructure approaches its limit, and the conflict shows no sign of a near-term resolution.

"Although the likelihood of oil supply falling to 6mn bpd is not our central case, it is still very much in the cards. If and when the crisis reaches an end, it will take months to restore operations to pre-conflict levels, with the questions of infrastructure integrity and a recalibrated geopolitical order still at play,” said Aditya Saraswat, MENA research director, Rystad Energy.

International energy companies have also reported disruption to their operations in the region, with TotalEnergies reporting that production has been shut down or is in the process of shutting down in Qatar, Iraq and UAE offshore, representing approximately 15% of its total output. However operations at the Satorp refinery in Saudi Arabia are currently not affected. The company says the impact of LNG production shutdowns in Qatar on its LNG trading activities is limited, as most Qatari LNG is marketed by QatarEnergy. Meanwhile Shell has declared force majeure on LNG cargoes it buys from QatarEnergy and sells to its clients worldwide, following QatarEnergy’s halting of LNG production and declaration of force majeure on LNG shipments.

Envorem’s modular sludge remediation system installed in Saudi Arabia. (image source: Envorem)

Envorem, the UK-based developer of oily sludge remediation technology, has installed its treatment system in Saudi Arabia

The global oil industry discards around 1% of all crude oil as waste, generating approximately 120 million tonnes of oily sludge every year, with legacy deposits exceeding 1.8 billion tonnes worldwide.

Envorem’s technology is designed to rapidly and efficiently treat oily sludge and hydrocarbon-contaminated waste streams. The process separates viscous sludge into oil, water and solids, enabling valuable materials to be recovered while significantly reducing the volume of hazardous waste that requires disposal.

In January and February 2026, the Envorem team assembled a UK-built treatment system on a site near Jubail, Saudi Arabia, where it is ready for use. The system provides a mobile platform to treat oily sludge and hydrocarbon-contaminated waste streams directly at source, creating opportunities for future remediation projects across the Middle East.

Successful pilots

The latest deployment follows a successful pilot project with Petroleum Development Oman (PDO0 where oil and water was recovered from sludge while significantly reducing waste volumes and emissions.

The Envorem System was also tested at Saudi Aramco’s Shaybah Gas Oil Processing Station to process 1,300 cubic metres of sludge, recovering 2,080 barrels of oil and 920 cubic metres of treated water for reuse. Previously, this material had to be transported more than 800 km for disposal, at significant cost and environmental impact. By using Envorem, the station reduced residual waste by 97%, while avoiding 332 tonnes of CO₂ emissions associated with transporting the waste for disposal.

“Having our first full-scale industrial deployment in Saudi Arabia is a major step forward for Envorem,” said Mark Batt-Rawden, managing director of Envorem. “The Envorem System is now fully commissioned and ready for oily sludge remediation projects in Saudi. This is a real credit to the team and our investors who’ve supported us to get here.

“Alongside that progress, our patent, is now secured in Canada, following earlier grants in Europe and the United States. This strengthens our global IP position, and gives us greater confidence as we scale internationally to provide the oil industry with a faster, cleaner and more economical way to deal with the enormous global legacy of oily sludge.”

Envorem has showcased its technology internationally at major industry events, including  provided operators, engineers and environmental specialists with the opportunity to see the technology in action and understand how the Envorem System can treat sludge at source.

Amin H. Nasser, president and CEO of Aramco. (Image source: Aramco)

Aramco CEO Amin H. Nasser has warned of ‘catastrophic consequences’ for the oil markets and the global economy if the conflict in the Middle East continues

Speaking in a media call for the energy giant’s 2025 full year financial results, he said, “Global spare capacity is mostly concentrated in this region, so it’s absolutely critical that shipping resumes in the Straits of Hormuz.

“The disruption has caused a severe chain reaction in not only shipping and insurance but there’s also a drastic domino effect on aviation, agriculture, automotive and other industries,” Nasser continued.

“While we have faced disruptions in the past, this one by far is the biggest crisis the region’s oil and gas industry has faced.”

Nasser gave assurances that Aramco has contingency plans in place for various scenarios, crises and challenges to ensure it continues to deliver to its customers, leveraging its significant operational capabilities, and the flexibility of its advantaged infrastructure and network in Saudi Arabia and globally.

The company is managing to reroute some of its crude exports via the East-West pipeline to the port of Yanbu on the Red Sea to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, but this is now close to capacity and is unable to fully compensate, with 3-4mn bpd of Saudi exports remaining exposed to the closure, according to Rystad Energy.

While Saudi Arabia is reported to have begun reducing oil production in response to the crisis, Nasser said at the earnings call that Aramco could restore output in days rather than weeks once the Strait of Hormuz reopened.

Aramco has also said its Ras Tanura refinery, one of the Kingdom’s key refining hubs, is restarting after sustaining limited damage from debris from intercepted drones.

2025 results

Aramco reported profits of US$104.7bn in 2025, down from US$110.3bn in 2024, reflecting a lower average oil price of US$69.2 compared with US$802 the previous year. It recorded capital expenditure of US$50.8bn, up slightly from US$50.4bn the previous year.

In terms of operations, Aramco reported significant progress in expanding gas production capacity, with start of production at Jafurah in December 2025, and commencement of operations at Tanajib Gas Plant. The two plants will provide about 1.3bn standard cubic feet per day of combined sales gas production capacity. Jafurah Phase II and the Fadhili Gas Plant expansion are set for 2027 completion, while the Master Gas System Phase III is progressing, and due to add 3.15bn standard cubic feet per day of transmission capacity by 2028. The Marjan crude oil increment was brought onstream and water injection operations commenced at Berri crude oil increment, while on the exploration front, Aramco discovered six new fields and two new reservoirs of Arabian oil.

Downstream, the energy giant is progressing towards its long-term target of 4mn barrels per day of liquids-to-chemicals capacity, with Shaheen in South Korea, Amiral in Saudi Arabia and HAPCO projects in China, which are under development and on track for completion in 2026 and 2027.

Nasser said, “Aramco delivered robust growth and strong cash flows in 2025, reinforcing confidence in our strategy. Our disciplined capital allocation, combined with our lower-cost, adaptable, and highly-reliable operations, drove strong financial performance in a year marked by price volatility. This enabled a 3.5% increase to our base dividend, reinforcing our focus on delivering sustainable and progressive shareholder returns.

“We continue to leverage advanced technologies including AI to enhance efficiency and unlock value across our business. We also continued to maintain our impressive safety track record in 2025, with our lowest total recordable case rate since the IPO.

“Following another year of record oil demand in 2025, we believe ongoing investments in our operations position us well for the future…Our strong project momentum underscores potential for future operating cash flow growth, creating further opportunities and reinforcing our position as a global energy leader.”

Fatih Birol, IEA executive director. (Image source: IEA)

The 32 Member countries of the International Energy Agency have agreed to make 400 million barrels of oil from their emergency reserves available to the market, the largest release of emergency oil stocks in the Agency’s history, to address the loss of supply stemming from the war in the Middle East and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz

In a statement, IEA executive director Fatih Birol noted that the conflict in the Middle East is having a significant impact on global oil and gas markets, with major implications for security, affordability and the global economy.

The conflict in the Middle East that began on 28 February 2026 has impeded oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, with export volumes of crude and refined products currently at less than 10% of pre-conflict levels. Without sufficient routes to market and without sufficient storage, regional operators have been forced to shut in or curtail a substantial amount of production. They are also experiencing attacks on their energy and energy-related infrastructure.

An average of 20 million barrels per day of crude oil and oil products transited the Strait of Hormuz in 2025, or around 25% of the world’s seaborne oil trade. Options for oil flows to bypass the Strait of Hormuz are limited.

Refinery operations are also being disrupted, with implications for the jet fuel and diesel supplies.

“The situation of the natural gas markets is challenging, with few options to replace LNG cargoes from Qatar and the UAE. These have been reduced by 20%, leaving balances even tighter than for oil,” Birol remarked. Asia has been the most profoundly affected, and is forced to compete with other markets for LNG cargos.

“The oil market challenges we are facing are unprecedented in scale, therefore I am very glad that IEA Member countries have responded with an emergency collective action of unprecedented size,” said  Birol. “Oil markets are global, so the response to major disruptions needs to be global too. Energy security is the founding mandate of the IEA, and I am pleased that IEA Members are showing strong solidarity in taking decisive action together.”

While this will alleviate the immediate disruption, the most important thing is to stabilise flows and allow traffic to resume through the Strait of Hormuz, he said.

The emergency stocks will be made available to the market over a timeframe that is appropriate to the national circumstances of each Member country and will be supplemented by additional emergency measures by some countries.

IEA members hold emergency stockpiles of over 1.2 billion barrels, with a further 600 million barrels of industry stocks held under government obligation. The coordinated stock release is the sixth in the history of the IEA, which was created in 1974. Previous collective actions were taken in 1991, 2005, 2011, and twice in 2022.

The IEA Secretariat will provide further details of how this collective action will be implemented in due course. It will also continue to closely monitor global oil and gas markets and to provide recommendations to Member governments, as needed.

“The IEA will continue its mission of upholding energy security, as we have done today for the oil markets, and will continue to do across the entire energy sector,” Birol concluded.