The global LNG shipping industry will require over 650 new LNG carriers by 2040, with significant new LNG supply set to come onstream, according to analysis by Wood Mackenzie
The Global LNG shipping outlook: form an ordering queue analysis examined recent LNG trade and shipping dynamics and the long-term requirement for newbuild LNG carriers.
Shipping capacity gap
New build investment was limited in 2025, according to the report findings. While strong deliveries are expected this year, the market outlook shifts from 2027 onwards. New large-scale LNG supply coming onstream this decade, supported by a record year of LNG supply final investment decisions in 2025, will drive demand for shipping capacity. Much of the new capacity is in the US, where LNG trades on a Free On Board basis. This will increase the proportion of LNG cargoes that react to fluctuations in global gas prices.
The result will be less direct LNG trade patterns, creating a more inefficient market that requires additional shipping capacity. More than 650 new LNG carriers (174,000m3 equivalent) are required by 2040 based on Wood Mackenzie trade and scrapping forecasts.
Build times are a complicating factor, with LNG carriers taking around 2.5-3 years to build at the moment, according to Fraser Carson, principal analyst, Global LNG Assets at Wood Mackenzie. "If players have already contracted LNG offtake to start before the end of the decade, the decision around placing a newbuild order needs to be made now."
Regulatory and fleet dynamics
Another factor accelerating fleet turnover are new maritime emissions regulations . The European Commission brought maritime CO2 emissions into its Emissions Trading System in stages between 2021 and 2024, making older, less efficient vessels increasingly uneconomic to operate globally. Average scrapping age has dropped from around 40 years historically to 26 years. Wood Mackenzie forecasts 73 vessels scrapped over the next five years, compared with 55 over the previous 11.
Carson said, "Vessels are exiting the LNG fleet more quickly and earlier than ever before, and the capacity lost will need to be replaced. We expect to see an upturn in ordering activity during 2026."