US tariffs are a critical concern for the oil and gas industry.

US tariffs are expected to remain the key concern for the oil and gas industry in 2025, followed by geopolitics and supply chain, according to a new report from leading data and analytics company GlobalData

Tariff-induced trade tensions have the potential to depress the US and global economy in the near term, thereby affecting energy demand. It is therefore important for the industry to assess the impact of macroeconomic themes of tariffs, along with geopolitics, and supply chain, while charting its growth strategy, says GlobalData. Also highlighted are traditional oil and gas themes such as LNG, shale and integrated refineries, the impact of which companies need to be aware of to remain competitive in the energy market.

GlobalData’s report, “Top 20 Oil & Gas Themes - 2025,” identifies the top 20 themes that will affect the oil and gas industry in 2025. As well as macro themes, those relating to the transition towards clean energy, such as renewables, low-carbon hydrogen, carbon capture and storage (CCS), and electric vehicles (EV) are expected to have a potential impact on oil and gas operations in 2025 and beyond, while AI, blockchain, cloud computing, cybersecurity, IoT, and robotics are the technology themes high on the agenda this year.

Ravindra Puranik, Oil and Gas Analyst at GlobalData, commented, “The US government initially imposed hefty import tariffs on most countries in line with their respective trade deficits, which were later normalised at 10% for 90 days. As a result, the global economic forecast is clouded by the frequent changes in the US tariffs and the prospect of retaliatory rate increases from affected trading partners, especially China.”

The industry has largely recovered from the geopolitical developments since 2022 that had significantly impacted global supply chains. While global oil demand is anticipated to grow in 2025, fuelled by consistent economic expansion in Asia, the stability of supply hinges on geopolitical risks and the production strategies of OPEC+ nations.

Puranik added, “A resolution to the conflict in Ukraine, along with incremental increases in OPEC+ output post-April 2025, could ensure adequate market supply, even in the face of stringent US sanctions on Iran and Venezuela.

“GlobalData research shows that companies that invest in the right themes become success stories; those that miss the big themes ultimately fail. Given that so many themes are disruptive, it is very easy to be blindsided by industry outsiders invading the sector. In this scenario, it is important to understand the biggest themes in the industry and how they could help companies thrive in the rapidly changing energy dynamics.”

Global oil demand forecast. (Image source: Rystad Energy)

US President Trump’s visit to the Middle East has the potential for significantly impacting oil markets, according to energy consultancy Rystad Energy

Brent oil is hovering around US$65/bbl, buoyed by progress made on US-China trade negotiations, which have also eroded some demand side pessimism. In the Middle East, supply side factors will take centre stage, with possible rollbacks of restrictions on Iranian crude exports.

Rystad Energy believes that OPEC+ will continue to add supply to the market while supply elsewhere is reduced due to US sanctions and tariffs.

The energy consultancy has reduced its oil demand growth prediction from 1.1mn bpd to 0.7mn bpd on the basis that there will still be some lasting impact on trade flows from the tariffs, even if there are rollbacks. Growth would be led by Asia, and a need for stock build-up ahead of the summer and for geopolitical security could be additional growth factors.

On the supply side, Rystad Energy estimates that the core OPEC eight members’ reversal of planned cuts is due to the declining contributions of OPEC+ members such as Iran, Venezuela and Mexico, owing to sanctions and tariffs. Declining supply from other members is also balancing out the OPEC+ unwind without causing a price slide. On the non-OPEC+ side, the expectation of US crude production in 2025 has been revised downwards to approximately 0.3mn bpd, while new projects in Brazil have the potential to add around 0.4mn bpd in 2025 and 2026.

Overall, Rystad Energy analysis signals upside in oil prices and refinery margins towards the summer.

Mukesh Sahdev, senior vice president, global head oil commodity markets – oil at Rystad Energy commented, “President Trump’s Middle Eastern tour is timed very well, as it is just ahead of Memorial Day weekend, when prices at the pump will play a key role in driving demand. Preventing any oil price spikes in the summer will likely remain central to the president’s agenda.

“Refinery crude demand is on a growth curve between May and August, signalling a more bullish oil price environment.

“With non-OPEC+ producers around the world not growing their production and entering seasonal maintenance, the OPEC+ decision to add extra barrels in May and June fits well into that agenda. This becomes even more important as potential US-China trade resolution erodes demand concerns and GDP risk.

"The big unknown for the market is how US actions related to Iran, Russia and Venezuela will result in supply disruptions or additions. The US could take advantage of softening prices to fill the strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) with Middle East barrels. Will President Trump find middle ground while in the Middle East? Overall, the core OPEC ‘eight’ wield the greatest influence on the oil market’s future trajectory.”

HE Dr. Sultan Al Jaber, chairman of AIQ, signed the agreement with QazaqGaz, represented by CEO, Sanzhar Zharkeshov. (Image source: AIQ)

AIQ, Abu Dhabi's AI champion for the energy sector, continues to expand its global footprint with the signing of several agreements with Kazakhstan to advance AI and digital transformation in oil and gas, during the official state visit by HH Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi to the Republic of Kazakhstan

During the visit, AIQ and Samruk-Kazyna, Kazakhstan’s sovereign wealth fund, signed a cooperation agreement to enhance digital transformation in Kazakhstan’s energy sector. The agreement also covers knowledge exchange and the adoption of best practices in the fields of AI, asset digitalisation, and autonomous operations. The two organisations will also explore opportunities for the implementation of digital solutions to optimise oil and gas exploration, production and infrastructure management.

AIQ will support the deployment of pilot projects and use cases in the areas of AI and digitalisation, with the view to fostering long-term cooperation in R&D to support Kazakhstan’s national goals for technological modernisation and energy sector resilience.

AIQ also entered a strategic agreement with QazaqGaz, Kazakkstan’s national gas company, to implement advanced AI solutions for reservoir and geological analysis, allowing AIQ’s Reservoir Performance Advisor (RPA) module from its Advanced Reservoir 360 (AR360) solution and the AI-based thin section interpretation application, RockInsight, to be utilised by QazaqGaz.These tools together provide actionable insights to optimise production, reduce operational costs, and enhance overall subsurface performance. The agreement between AIQ and QazaqGaz will also facilitate the exchange of expertise, best practices, and technological know-how in AI, asset digitalisation, and autonomous operations.

AIQ also entered a similar collaboration agreement with KazMunayGaz, Kazakhstan’s national oil and gas operator, allowing for its AR360 Reservoir Performance Advisor (RPA) module to be utilised by KazMunayGaz, as well as cooperation in the fields of AI, asset digitalisation, and autonomous operations.

Amin H. Nasser, president and CEO, Aramco. (Image source: Aramco)

Aramco recorded a robust Q1 financial and operational performance, with net income of US$26bn, slightly down from US$27.3bn in Q1 2024, and capital expenditure of US$12.5bn

The decrease in net income was mainly due to the impact of lower revenue and other income related to sales as well as higher operating costs.

Capital expenditure for Q1 2025 was up from US$10.8bn for the Q1 2024, mainly due to the expansion of gas development.

Upstream developments

In the upstream sector, Aramco recorded total hydrocarbon production of 12.3 mmboed in the first quarter of 2025 and made 14 new oil and gas discoveries in the Eastern Province and Empty Quarter. The company progressed increment projects to maintain MSC at 12.0 mmbpd, including water injection operations to support the reservoir and crude oil production continued for the Dammam development project, and procurement and construction activities advanced for the Marjan and Berri and Zuluf crude oil increments. Aramco progressed its strategy to increase sales gas production capacity by more than 60%, including advancing procurement and construction activities for the Jafurah Gas Plant, part of the Jafurah unconventional gas field development, as well as for the Tanajib gas plant and Fadhili gas plant expansion.

Downstream, Aramco made progress in capital projects such as the construction of the refinery-integrated petrochemical steam cracker being developed by S-OIL, the Amiral expansion at the SATORP refinery, and other projects. Aramco also progressed the strategic expansion of its global retail network, with agreements to acquire 25% equity stake in Unioil Petroleum Philippines, one of the largest petroleum companies in the Philippines.

In the lower carbon sector, the company made headway in blue hydrogen development, completing the acquisition of 50% equity interest in Blue Hydrogen Industrial Gas company, a subsidiary of APQ, through which Aramco and APQ plan to develop a lower-carbon hydrogen network in the Kingdom’s Eastern Province, and launched a CO2 Direct Air Capture pilot plant, marking a significant step in the company’s efforts to expand its DAC capabilities and set to accelerate DAC deployment throughout the region.

Aramco president & CEO Amin H. Nasser said, “Global trade dynamics affected energy markets in the first quarter of 2025, with economic uncertainty impacting oil prices. In this context, Aramco’s robust financial performance once again demonstrated the company’s unique scale, its reliability and flexibility, the value of its low-cost operations, and its emphasis on efficiency and advanced technology.”