twitter linkedinfacebookacp contact us

Industry

Emissions are set to almost halve by 2050. (Image source: DNV)

DNV has released its 'Energy Transition Outlook', which notes that 2024 will go down as the year of peak energy emissions

Energy-related emissions are at the cusp of a prolonged period of decline for the first time since the industrial revolution. Emissions are set to almost halve by 2050, but this is a long way short of requirements of the Paris Agreement. The Outlook forecasts the planet will warm by 2.2 °C by end of the century.

The peaking of emissions is largely due to plunging costs of solar and batteries which are accelerating the exit of coal from the energy mix and stunting the growth of oil. Annual solar installations increased 80% last year as it beat coal on cost in many regions. Cheaper batteries, which dropped 14% in cost last year, are also making the 24-hour delivery of solar power and electric vehicles more affordable. The uptake of oil was limited as electrical vehicles sales grew by 50%. In China, where both of these trends were especially pronounced, peak gasoline is now in the past.

China is dominating much of the global action on decarbonisation at present, particularly in the production and export of clean technology. It accounted for 58% of global solar installations and 63% of new electrical vehicle purchases last year. And whilst it remains the world’s largest consumer of coal and emitter of CO2, its dependence on fossil fuels is set to fall rapidly as it continues to install solar and wind. China is the dominating exporter of green technologies although international tariffs are making their goods more expensive in some territories.

“Solar PV and batteries are driving the energy transition, growing even faster than we previously forecasted,” said Remi Eriksen, group president and CEO of DNV. “Emissions peaking is a milestone for humanity. But we must now focus on how quickly emissions decline and use the available tools to accelerate the energy transition. Worryingly, our forecasted decline is very far from the trajectory required to meet the Paris Agreement targets. In particular, the hard-to-electrify sectors need a renewed policy push.”

Striking shifts in energy mix

The success of solar and batteries is not replicated in the hard-to-abate sectors, where essential technologies are scaling slowly. DNV has revised the long-term forecast for hydrogen and its derivatives down by 20% (from 5% to 4% of final energy demand in 2050) since last year. And although DNV has revised up its carbon capture and storage forecast, only 2% of global emissions will be captured by CCS in 2040 and 6% in 2050. A global carbon price would accelerate the uptake of these technologies.

Wind remains an important driver of the energy transition, contributing to 28% of electricity generation by 2050. In the same timeframe, offshore wind will experience 12% annual growth rate although the current headwinds impacting the industry are weighing on growth.

Despite these challenges, the peaking of emissions is a sign that the energy transition is progressing. The energy mix is moving from a roughly 80/20 mix in favour of fossil fuels today, to one which is split equally between fossil and non-fossil fuels by 2050. In the same timeframe, electricity use will double, which is also at the driver of energy demand only increasing 10%.

“There is a growing mismatch between short term geopolitical and economic priorities versus the need to accelerate the energy transition. There is a compelling green dividend on offer which should give policymakers the courage to not only double down on renewable technologies, but to tackle the expensive and difficult hard-to-electrify sectors with firm resolve,” added Eriksen

The Outlook also examines the impact of artificial intelligence on the energy transition. AI will have a profound impact on many aspects of the energy system, particularly for the transmission and distribution of power. And although data points are currently sparse, DNV does not forecast that the energy footprint of AI will alter the overall direction of the transition. It will account for 2% of electricity demand by 2050.

*CO2 emissions from the combustion of coal, oil and gas

, neotork optimises drilling by allowing higher drilling parameters to improve the rate of penetration (ROP). Image source: Adobe Stock

Neo Oiltools, a provider of drilling performance tools for the oil and gas industry, has appointed Saudi Arabia-based Saja Energy as the official distributor of the neotork Vibration Management Tool in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

neotork optimises drilling by adjusting the depth of cut and allowing higher drilling parameters to improve the rate of penetration (ROP). The tool protects the drill bit and bottom hole assembly (BHA) to reduce failures, trips out of the well and downtime, all while increasing safety.

With a proven track record of over 14mn feet drilled in 1,500 wells worldwide, neotork effectively manages torque generated by the drill bit and reduces vibrations across all four dimensions in offshore and onshore applications. The tool’s unique technology ensures that once downhole torque exceeds the preset limit, a system of disc springs and steel cables automatically contracts to reduce the bit depth of cut. The excess torque ‘stored’ in the system is slowly released as the drilling structure drills off. Crucially, the bit remains engaged with the formation at all times so drilling is not interrupted.

“We are very pleased to work with Saja Energy to bring the only tool that can protect drilling operations against all four types of vibrations and torque dysfunctions back to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia,” stated Robert Borne, Neo Oiltools’ chief executive officer. “This strategic alliance will provide significant benefits to the main operator in the region.”

Paul Day, chief executive officer at Saja Energy, added that the technology addresses the particular challenges operators encounter in Saudi Arabia. “Its reusability and ability to increase drilling efficiency strategically meets our customer's needs to reduce costs while improving performance – and supports our In Kingdom Total Value goal,” he added.