In The Spotlight
Musaab Al Mulla (right) in conversation with Daniel Evans, VP, global head, fuels & refining, S&P Global Energy. (Image source: S&P Global Energy)
The role of refining in resilient energy systems
At the S&P Global Energy Middle East Petroleum & Gas Conference (MPGC) held in London, Musaab Al Mulla, Aramco's vice president of market analysis and sustainability, underlined the need for the recognition of the role refined products play in resilient energy systems, which has been brought into sharp focus in the current crisis
Al Mulla highlighted the need for a realistic approach to the role of oil and gas as the engine for economic growth and the impact of the crisis on products ranging from helium to materials and fertilisers, with shortages of the latter in turn impacting food supply.
A common theme of the event was the need for resilience and redundancy in the energy system to be able to weather such crises. Al Mulla highlighted Aramco’s focus on long-term strategic planning and investment for the future, as exemplified by its investment in the east-west pipeline which is now not only transporting crude but also products, building flexibility into the system, transporting crude to refineries for export and ensuring refined products get to market.
“The world has realised the need for more investment in pipeline infrastructure and domestic refining to ensure industry is working together,” he said.
He remarked that the crisis has demonstrated demand is resilient and has exposed the underinvestment in refineries, with capital flows being redirected towards the energy transition and resulting in a deficit of 3mn bpd.
“We need to build refineries and infrastructure while also reducing emissions,” he said, noting that Aramco has one of the lowest emissions intensities.
Discussing demand for refined products, he noted that demand for jet fuel continues to grow and refinery utilisation is at record rates.
“We believe demand will continue to be resilient, and low carbon products will be important as well,” he said.
He foresaw strong growth in chemicals with the market for durable materials growing in multiple sectors, noting that carbon-based materials can help reduce emissions. Replacing steel with polypropylene in cars can reduce emissions by 80%, for example. He also highlighted growth in demand for low carbon aviation fuel (lcaf), fossil-based jet fuel, which is 10% lower in emissions than conventional jet fuel, and complements sustainable aviation fuel (saf) as it addresses some of its limitations.
Highlighting the continuing long-term strategic importance of refining, he stressed that gasolene will still account for a significant proportion of transportation fuel by 2050.
With resilience, reliability and sustainability being global challenges, Al Mulla said that resilience for Aramco means building on operational excellence, long-term investment in oil and gas, new energies and low carbon, and localisation, noting Aramco’s 70% localisation target to ensure a resilient supply chain.
“Resilience is correlated with sustainability, you can’t be sustainable if you are not resilient,” he said. It involves not only having the flexibility to be able to adapt to shocks, but also having the capacity to innovate and grow supply while also reducing emissions, he added.
Commenting on the Middle East’s attractiveness as an investment destination, he said, “Clearly the region remains the hub for oil and gas petrochemicals and refining, and it has shown its infrastructure and energy system have been resilient in this historic crisis.”
He said Aramco is also looking at other regions, and urged the need for more investor-friendly policies in Europe, where there is a need for more domestic refining and chemicals so as not to be dependent on other regions.
Discussing the role of gas, Al Mulla said there will be increasing demand to fulfil the growing demand for power from data centres, highlighting the move towards regional data centres.
In the current market, the physical impact of OPEC's decision will be very limited. (Image source: Adobe Stock)
OPEC+ decision to raise production likely to have limited impact
The seven OPEC+ countries, which previously announced additional voluntary adjustments in April and November 2023, namely Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman, have agreed to increase production by 188,000 bpd from July
However, the impact of this increased production quota is likely to be limited, according to Jorge Leon, head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy
“With the Strait of Hormuz closed, the issue is not whether OPEC+ raises paper quotas, but whether additional barrels can actually reach the market,” he said.
“OPEC+’s decision to continue increasing production by 188,000 barrels per day confirms that the group remains on track to unwind the first tranche of voluntary cuts by September, if not earlier. But in the current market, the physical impact of such a decision would be close to zero.”
Leon noted that not only is the Gulf facing oil export obstacles, Russia is also under pressure as a result of intensifying drone attacks on its oil infrastructure.
“The latest increase will likely expose a widening gap between OPEC+ targets and Russia’s actual production capacity,” he said.
“The more important question is what happens after the first tranche of voluntary cuts has been fully unwound. The capacity assessment currently undergoing should serve as the basis for 2027 quotas, but with the Strait of Hormuz closed and several producers operating far below normal levels, it will be very difficult to accurately assess each country’s sustainable production capacity. That makes the next quota reset much more politically sensitive.”
Once the Strait of Hormuz reopens and flows gradually recover, the market could face a very large surplus, he pointed out, driven by returning OPEC+ supply, stronger US shale output and weaker demand after a period of very high oil prices. The UAE, now free from its OPEC quotas, would also likely ramp up production.
Once restocking concludes, OPEC+ may be forced to implement cuts again.
“That is when cohesion will become the central issue. OPEC+ cohesion is easy to maintain when the market does the discipline for you. The real test is whether that holds when the barrels come back, stocks rebuild and members have to decide who cuts.”
At the moment though, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz seems a distant prospect, given the resumption of hostilities between Israel and Iran, which has caused the oil price to spike again.
“Despite ongoing diplomatic efforts, markets remain concerned that even a peace agreement would not immediately restore normal energy flows due to damaged infrastructure, mined waterways, and production outages,” commented MUFG Bank, echoing other industry analysts. “The renewed escalation has reinforced fears of prolonged supply disruptions, keeping upward pressure on oil prices despite OPEC+ plans to gradually increase output.”
The webinar will address the risks and realities of dissimilar flange connections. (Image source: Adobe Stock)
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