In The Spotlight
Oil prices fall on announcement of peace agreement
Oil prices have fallen to just over US80/bbl, their lowest level since April, and stocks risen following President Donald Trump’s announcement that Washington and Iran have reached an agreement to end the war
A formal signing of the agreement is due to take place on Friday 19 June in Switzerland.
While the text of the agreement has not yet been released and the details are still unclear, Trump said that hostilities have ceased, the Strait of Hormuz will fully open on 19 June toll-free, and the US blockade will be lifted, although how the Strait will be controlled is not clear.
“Ships of the World, start your engines. Let the oil flow!” Trump said on his social media account, Truth Social.
Iran’s deputy foreign minister, Kazem Gharibabadi confirmed, “A permanent and immediate end to the war has been declared on all fronts.”
The agreement would extend the ceasefire for 60 days to allow negotiations to begin about Iran’s nuclear programme, and lead to a final peace agreement. Plenty of thorny issues remain to be resolved, however which could potentially scupper the deal and lead to renewed conflict.
Claudio Galimberti, chief economist, Rystad Energy commented, “This deal, if it holds, is the most workable outcome available to all parties at the table, which gives it a degree of credibility. Washington has an incentive to avoid a spike in gasoline prices ahead of the midterms, while Tehran is seeking sanctions relief and restored export revenues, and the global economy has a strong interest in keeping the Strait of Hormuz open.”
However the sequencing dispute, with both sides insisting the other must move first, remains the main barrier, while Lebanon continues to represent a wildcard that neither Washington nor Tehran fully controls, he notes. While a credible reopening of the Strait of Hormuz would be one of the most important developments for the global economy, a return to normalised market conditions immediately upon signature in Switzerland would look optimistic.
“It will take time for production to ramp back up, for logistics to normalise, and for the risk premium embedded in crude prices to dissipate, particularly given that the structural shift implied by the UAE’s exit from OPEC+ is not reversed by any near-term diplomatic outcome.
“If the deal holds, it will therefore represent a step in the right direction, and an important one at that, but still a step rather than a destination.”
Even if the agreement holds, it is likely to take some time for traffic through the Strait to return to pre-war levels, with marine insurance rates remaining at a high level, mines needing to be cleared, and tankers needing to be repositioned.
Restarting oil production and getting all the elements of the logistics and supply chain in place could take months.
Total pre-conflict supply across the six Gulf producers stood at 24.2mn bpd in January 2026; current output has fallen to 12.4 million bpd, Rystad notes. Saudi Arabia accounts for the largest single share of lost barrels at 3.8mn bpd, followed by Iraq at 2.8mn bpd and Kuwait at 2mn bpd.
Energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie's view is that if the negotiations continue to make progress, and the Strait of Hormuz is reopened within a few weeks, oil supply from the strongest producers in the Gulf region can be restored relatively quickly, with shipping and logistics likely to be the bottleneck in the early phases of the recovery, rather than upstream producers.Countries with more complex assets, particularly Iraq, will take longer to recover, but could still return close to pre-war levels in six to nine months.
Ed Crooks, vice chair Americas at Wood Mackenzie, says that while Interest in coal, renewables and nuclear power has grown, as has the focus on hydrocarbon assets outside the Middle East, particularly in the Americas, the structural advantages of the Gulf producers as sources of low-cost oil and gas have not changed.
"When exports can flow freely from the region again, they will be highly competitive in world markets," he said.
The webinar will explore how drone technology is being used to perform remote NDT inspections, collect critical asset data and create digital twins that support more effective asset integrity management. (Image source: Flyability)
Webinar: NDT drones for the oil and gas industry
Oil Review Middle East, in association with Flyability is hosting a webinar on “NDT drones for the oil and gas industry: from innovation to implementation" on Tuesday 14 July at 2pm GST
The oil and gas industry continues to face increasing pressure to improve safety, reduce operational downtime and enhance inspection efficiency. Increasingly, operators are deploying drone technology to improve inspection quality, enhance safety and drive greater operational efficiency across oil and gas assets, discovering new ways to conduct inspections in hazardous and confined spaces while minimising risks to personnel.
This practical session will explore how drone technology is being used to perform remote NDT inspections, collect critical asset data and create digital twins that support more effective asset integrity management. Through real-world case studies and industry experience, attendees will gain valuable insights into implementing drone solutions within their own operations.
Register here
Key highlights
• Visual inspections: Learn how drone technology is improving access to difficult and hazardous inspection environments
• Remote NDT applications: Explore the use of UT spot measurements and other remote inspection capabilities
• Digital twins: Understand how digital asset models are supporting integrity monitoring and maintenance planning
• Industry success stories: Hear practical examples from asset owners and service providers successfully utilising drone technology
• Implementation strategies: Gain insights into integrating drone-based inspections into existing operational workflows.
Our expert speakers:
• Fabio Fata, senior sales manager, Flyability
• Senan Khatib, certified AUV pilot/instructor and UAV field specialist Sagerdrone
• Abdullah Al-Rahmah, head of UAV team, Saudi Aramco
• Jacob Swidy, head of inspection technology and digital transformation, Saudi Aramco
Don’t miss this opportunity to take away exclusive insights from the leading lights of the drone technology world!
Register here
Musaab Al Mulla (right) in conversation with Daniel Evans, VP, global head, fuels & refining, S&P Global Energy. (Image source: S&P Global Energy)
The role of refining in resilient energy systems
At the S&P Global Energy Middle East Petroleum & Gas Conference (MPGC) held in London, Musaab Al Mulla, Aramco's vice president of market analysis and sustainability, underlined the need for the recognition of the role refined products play in resilient energy systems, which has been brought into sharp focus in the current crisis
Al Mulla highlighted the need for a realistic approach to the role of oil and gas as the engine for economic growth and the impact of the crisis on products ranging from helium to materials and fertilisers, with shortages of the latter in turn impacting food supply.
A common theme of the event was the need for resilience and redundancy in the energy system to be able to weather such crises. Al Mulla highlighted Aramco’s focus on long-term strategic planning and investment for the future, as exemplified by its investment in the east-west pipeline which is now not only transporting crude but also products, building flexibility into the system, transporting crude to refineries for export and ensuring refined products get to market.
“The world has realised the need for more investment in pipeline infrastructure and domestic refining to ensure industry is working together,” he said.
He remarked that the crisis has demonstrated demand is resilient and has exposed the underinvestment in refineries, with capital flows being redirected towards the energy transition and resulting in a deficit of 3mn bpd.
“We need to build refineries and infrastructure while also reducing emissions,” he said, noting that Aramco has one of the lowest emissions intensities.
Discussing demand for refined products, he noted that demand for jet fuel continues to grow and refinery utilisation is at record rates.
“We believe demand will continue to be resilient, and low carbon products will be important as well,” he said.
He foresaw strong growth in chemicals with the market for durable materials growing in multiple sectors, noting that carbon-based materials can help reduce emissions. Replacing steel with polypropylene in cars can reduce emissions by 80%, for example. He also highlighted growth in demand for low carbon aviation fuel (lcaf), fossil-based jet fuel, which is 10% lower in emissions than conventional jet fuel, and complements sustainable aviation fuel (saf) as it addresses some of its limitations.
Highlighting the continuing long-term strategic importance of refining, he stressed that gasolene will still account for a significant proportion of transportation fuel by 2050.
With resilience, reliability and sustainability being global challenges, Al Mulla said that resilience for Aramco means building on operational excellence, long-term investment in oil and gas, new energies and low carbon, and localisation, noting Aramco’s 70% localisation target to ensure a resilient supply chain.
“Resilience is correlated with sustainability, you can’t be sustainable if you are not resilient,” he said. It involves not only having the flexibility to be able to adapt to shocks, but also having the capacity to innovate and grow supply while also reducing emissions, he added.
Commenting on the Middle East’s attractiveness as an investment destination, he said, “Clearly the region remains the hub for oil and gas petrochemicals and refining, and it has shown its infrastructure and energy system have been resilient in this historic crisis.”
He said Aramco is also looking at other regions, and urged the need for more investor-friendly policies in Europe, where there is a need for more domestic refining and chemicals so as not to be dependent on other regions.
Discussing the role of gas, Al Mulla said there will be increasing demand to fulfil the growing demand for power from data centres, highlighting the move towards regional data centres.