In The Spotlight
The report highlights the evolution of AI in the energy sector
Powering Possible 2026 report highlights contribution of AI to energy resilience
AI investment and adoption are accelerating across the energy industry as leaders increasingly recognise the potential for it to strengthen energy reliability and resilience in the current volatile environment, according to the third annual Powering Possible report from ADNOC, XRG and Microsoft
The report, entitled Energy Resilience in the Intelligence Era, highlights a significant shift from AI ambition to implementation, with AI delivering growing financial returns as well as creating new infrastructure challenges.
Key findings
• AI becomes a top corporate priority: 62% of energy leaders now rank AI among their top two priorities, up from 42% in 2025, while 89% report increased investment over the past year
• AI investments begin to deliver returns: 63% expect returns on existing investments to cover or exceed costs, rising to 89% for future investments
• Energy demand creates new infrastructure challenges: 74% expect AI to increase energy consumption by 2030, yet only 52% are confident existing infrastructure can meet AI-driven electricity demand – unchanged from 2025. Grid modernisation and smart-grid technologies are the leading investment priority for supporting AI growth, cited by 67% of respondents, followed by energy storage at 42%.
• Importance of energy reliability rises as a measure of AI value: 39% identify supply stability and reliability as AI's most important contribution, up from 26% in 2025, reflecting the current supply volatility. While the share giving cost savings as AI's leading contribution fell from 19% to 13%.
• AI has the potential to accelerate sustainable energy production: 71% of energy leaders expect AI to increase the speed at which the energy sector becomes more sustainable, alongside growing expectations that AI can strengthen resilience, efficiency and the ability to meet rising energy demand. 57% of respondents identify the optimisation of power flows, dispatch and balancing as the area where AI could make the greatest contribution to the energy transition.
• AI moves into everyday operations: The share of organisations deploying integrated agentic AI workflows more than doubled from 15% to 33%, while 60% are piloting or deploying robotics in physical operations, from inspecting infrastructure to performing hazardous tasks.
His Excellency Dr. Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, ADNOC managing director and Group CEO and executive chairman of XRG said: “AI is creating significant new opportunities for the energy industry to drive greater value, strengthen resilience and improve safety and reliability. At ADNOC, we are embedding AI, robotics and advanced technology across our operations to optimize every barrel, every molecule and every megawatt we produce. As AI scales, energy and technology must advance together.”
Brad Smith, vice chair and president, Microsoft, added, “As AI becomes embedded in the sectors that underpin the global economy, the measure of progress will not be adoption alone, but whether it delivers lasting value while earning public trust. In the energy sector, where reliability and security are fundamental, that requires strong governance, clear accountability and sustained investment in people and skills. Innovation at scale must be matched by responsibility at the same scale.”
The findings underline the need for investment in energy and digital infrastructure to advance together, backed by strong cybersecurity, trusted AI-ready data, common standards, sound governance and a skilled workforce, so AI can be deployed safely and reliably at scale.
Powering Possible 2026 is being published ahead of the fourth ENACT Majlis in Abu Dhabi and ADIPEC 2026 and is based on a survey of almost 400 senior energy and finance leaders.
First gas was achieved within less than a year from discovery. (Image source: SNOC)
Sharjah National Oil Company doubles gas production with Hedebah field
In a development that is set to strengthen Sharjah’s energy security and help the UAE achieve its goal of gas self-sufficiency by 2030, Sharjah National Oil Corporation (SNOC) has successfully completed Phase 1 development of the Hedebah gas-condensate field
Discovered in May 2024, the Hedebah Field represents Shrajah’s fifth onshore gas and condensate field and is located northeast of the Sajaa gas field. Thanks to an accelerated appraisal and development programme, first gas from the field was achieved within less than a year of discovery. SNOC has now completed all key Phase 1 objectives, including appraisal drilling, well evaluation, gathering infrastructure, pipeline installation and commissioning activities.
Appraisal results have confirmed strong reservoir quality, favourable pressure characteristics and encouraging production performance across the field, increasing confidence in Hedebah’s long-term commercial potential and its future contribution to Sharjah’s energy needs. The field has already more than doubled the company’s current gas production, ensuring a steady supply of gas and condensate.
SNOC has already commenced preparations for the next stage of development, with activities being accelerated to ramp up production during 2027. The field is expected to reach plateau production by 2028 and make a substantial contribution to meeting future energy demand across the Emirate.
The project was delivered despite significant logistical and procurement challenges, including regional shipping disruptions and material supply constraints, demonstrating SNOC’s ability to execute complex developments on an accelerated timeline.
Khamis Al Mazrouei, CEO of SNOC, said, “Hedebah is one of the most significant gas developments in Sharjah in recent years and a cornerstone of SNOC’s long-term growth strategy. Completing Phase 1 and bringing the field into production demonstrates our ability to move quickly from discovery to delivery while supporting the Emirate’s growing energy requirements. As we move into the next phase of development, Hedebah will play an increasingly important role in strengthening energy security and creating long-term value for Sharjah.”
SNOC remains committed to advancing Sharjah’s energy independence through the exploration and development of its hydrocarbon resources, complemented by its strategic gas storage and processing infrastructure.
Contributing to UAE gas growth
The SNOC development is good news for the UAE's strategic gas growth plans. The UAE possesses 297 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of conventional natural gas reserves, ranking as the seventh-largest gas reserve holder globally. Major projects are underway to exploit these to secure domestic self-sufficiency, help meet rising global gas demand, provide critical feedstock for the nation’s growing industrial and petrochemical sectors and establish the UAE as a global gas and LNG player.
They include:
Umm Shaif Gas Cap Megaproject: ADNOC’s US$6.2bn project in partnership with TotalEnergies, Eni and CNPC will unlock more than 600 million standard cubic feet per day (scfd) of natural gas and associated gas liquids by 2030, equivalent to almost 10% of the UAE’s current daily gas consumption
ADNOC Gas Rich Gas Development (RGD) project: With a total investment value of US$13.2bn across three phases, the RGD project is expanding the company’s gas processing capacity. Phase 1 expands key processing units to increase throughput and improve operational efficiency across multiple gas assets; Phase 2 will add a new natural gas processing train at the Habshan facility, while Phase 3 will add a new natural gas liquids (NGL) fractionation train at Ruwais.
Ruwais LNG project: This is scheduled to start operations in 2028, adding 9.6 mtpa of LNG production capacity, more than doubling ADNOC’s LNG production output to around 15 mtpa. Supported by ADNOC and XRG’s integrated global LNG ma
ADIPEC 2026 will feature more than 2,250 exhibiting companies. (Image source: dmg events)
Energy security and resilience come to the fore at ADIPEC 2026
In an exclusive interview with Oil Review Middle East, Thomas Löffler, executive vice president, dmg events discusses what we can expect at ADIPEC this year
Oil Review Middle East: At this time of geopolitical volatility, rising energy demand and infrastructure constraints, how will ADIPEC help to advance the investments, projects and partnerships required to support the delivery of secure, reliable and affordable energy systems?
Thomas Löffler: The last few months have reinforced something important: the energy system that was carefully built over decades is no longer the system the world now needs. We need a system that can absorb shocks, adapt to changing conditions and continue delivering the energy required for long-term economic and societal progress. That is why energy security is economic stability, and resilience has become fundamental to both.
The imperative is now twofold: secure the energy the world relies on today, while investing in the infrastructure, technology and capabilities needed to expand capacity and strengthen resilience for the future. That requires significant capital, faster execution and much closer collaboration across sectors and borders.
ADIPEC 2026 is where those priorities come together. Across the Strategic and Technical Conferences, Leadership Roundtables and the exhibition, we bring together governments, energy producers, investors, technology companies, engineers, manufacturers, infrastructure providers and major energy consumers to address the practical questions that determine delivery: where capital needs to go, what makes projects bankable, how infrastructure can be built faster and how technology can move from pilot to scale.
Collaboration is critical because no single company, country or sector can deliver the next energy system alone. ADIPEC brings together the full breadth of the global energy industry, from every part of the world, creating the conditions for ideas to become decisions, partnerships to become projects and investment to translate into real-world capacity. As a global centre for energy, investment and technology, Abu Dhabi and the UAE are uniquely positioned to convene those conversations and help accelerate progress.
Given the convergence of rising energy demand, AI-driven power growth, infrastructure constraints and geopolitical volatility, this is one of the most important editions of ADIPEC in recent years. The focus is not simply on discussing the challenges facing the industry, but on strengthening supply, mobilising capital, accelerating technology deployment and advancing the partnerships needed to build a more resilient energy system for the future.
Oil Review Middle East: What will be the key themes and topics at ADIPEC this year, and how has the strategic conference been refreshed to reflect changing priorities?
Thomas Löffler: The Strategic Conference has been significantly refreshed this year to reflect the issues now determining how the global energy system develops and performs. At its core are three priorities: strengthening energy security and resilience; mobilising the capital and infrastructure required to meet rising demand; and embedding intelligence and technology across energy systems to improve performance, reliability and decision-making.
New programmes include Energy Security & Resilience; Policy, Regulation & Governance; Upstream; Clean Power, Molecules & Carbon Management; Grids, Infrastructure & Industrial Execution; and Workforce & Skills, alongside updated programmes focused on AI, digital technology and integrated industrial value chains.
These changes reflect how interconnected the industry has become. Energy security cannot be separated from infrastructure and investment. AI is both changing how energy systems operate and creating significant new demand for power. And delivering projects at the scale required will depend as much on regulation, workforce capability and partnerships as it does on technology.
There is also a much stronger emphasis on execution. The conversation is no longer simply about long-term ambition. It is about what makes projects investable, how capital moves into infrastructure, how technology gets deployed at scale and how partnerships accelerate delivery.
Ultimately, the programme is built around the decisions the industry needs to make now — where to invest, what to build, which technologies to scale and how to deliver the capacity the world will need.
Oil Review Middle East: What is the role of the ADIPEC exhibition and its specialised zones in showcasing the latest innovations and technologies and catalysing commercial partnerships?
Thomas Löffler: The exhibition is where a lot of the commercial activity at ADIPEC happens. More than 2,250 companies come together not simply to showcase technology, but to meet customers, identify project opportunities, build partnerships and move solutions closer to deployment.
Across 16 halls, 30 country pavilions and four specialised zones, the exhibition connects energy companies, technology providers, manufacturers, service companies, investors and project partners in one commercial environment.
The AI Zone shows how AI, robotics, automation and advanced analytics are moving from pilot to real-world deployment across energy assets and operations, while the Digitalisation Zone focuses on the digital infrastructure, automation, analytics and cybersecurity capabilities making energy systems more connected, responsive and resilient.
The Low Carbon & Chemicals Zone brings together technologies and commercial models spanning carbon management, lower-carbon solutions, chemicals and advanced materials; and the Maritime & Logistics Zone focuses on the shipping, ports, supply chains and infrastructure required to keep global energy flows secure, efficient and reliable.
These zones play an important role in bringing operators, technology companies, project owners and investors into the same environment. That is where technology moves from being demonstrated to being evaluated, financed and deployed.
Oil Review Middle East: With the rapid expansion of AI and the transition from pilot projects to large-scale deployments, and as AI safety concerns come to the fore, how will ADIPEC shape the effective and responsible deployment of AI and intelligent energy systems?
Thomas Löffler: As AI moves into mission-critical energy infrastructure, the focus must extend beyond capability to include governance, transparency, cybersecurity and human oversight. ADIPEC will bring together operators, technology providers and policymakers to ensure AI is deployed safely, responsibly and at scale.
The AI Zone will show how artificial intelligence, robotics, automation and advanced analytics are moving from pilot to real-world deployment across energy assets and operations. At the same time, the AI, Digital & Technology conference programme will bring energy and technology leaders together to examine how these technologies can improve performance, strengthen resilience and support increasingly complex energy systems.
That depth extends across ADIPEC. Some of the world’s most influential energy and technology leaders will be part of the conversation this year, including Dr Roland Busch, President & CEO, Siemens AG; Olivier Blum, CEO, Schneider Electric; Caspar Herzberg, CEO, AVEVA; Girish Rishi, CEO, Cognite; Dennis Jol, CEO, AIQ; Uljan Sharka, Founder and CEO, Domyn; Dr Olivier Oullier, CEO, Inclusive Brains; and Tim Bawtree, Chairman and Founder, Quantum Switch.
Bringing that level of leadership together with more than 2,250 exhibiting companies, investors, project owners, engineers and technology providers is what creates the opportunity for ideas to move into partnerships, investment and deployment.
The point is not scale for scale’s sake. It is what that scale enables: bringing the people developing technology together with the companies that need it, the investors that can finance it and the decision-makers who can take it to market.
Sherif Foda, CEO, NESR. (Image source: NESR)
NESR leads the way in supply chain resilience
NESR’s strong local presence as a national home-grown energy services provider has enabled it to weather the challenges posed by the current crisis in the Middle East, while others have floundered
Speaking to Oil Review Middle East at the Energy Intelligence Forum in London, where energy security and energy resilience were at the top of the agenda, NESR’s CEO Sherif Foda explained how right at the beginning of hostilities the company had put plans into action through its crisis management team to ensure business continuity and prepare for any possible disruption.
“What helped us a lot is that we have built a very strong and competent local workforce so we don’t need to rely on expatriates to come in to execute the jobs. The other aspect is to ensure you have the products you need to operate. We shipped everything we needed immediately, in some cases taking a conscious decision to air freight or incur more costs to be able to have ready equipment, people and products in country in case of conflict. So we actually grew during the conflict despite those challenges.
Foda cited the Jafurah unconventional gas project in Saudi Arabia as a case illustrating supply chain resilience.
“We worked with our technology partners and suppliers to ensure we can blend the surfactants in country, for example. We have sourced most of our needs locally, such as the pipes, infrastructure, and sand, with some of the products made in Saudi Arabia. As a result of that resilience, we continued with our frac performance in unconventional without disruption, and are marching ahead as we speak and into the coming months. No one would have believed 10 years ago that Saudi Arabia would have a competitive play that rivals the Permian or Delaware. Today it is second to none, a world-class unconventional play, developed with the latest technology and 100% local crew. So there has been no need to evacuate workers, giving us a competitive advantage.
“So we are growing our projects despite what’s happening in the region.” Indeed, NESR saw second quarter revenues grow 59% year on year, with a tripling of net income, as the company was able to execute all its contracts and maintain a presence in all operating units, with no interruption to any of its customer activities.
Logistics has been the biggest hurdle posed by the crisis by far, Foda said. “Logistics has been very, very complex. We planned the logistics at an early stage, deciding to truck goods from Jeddah to Dammam rather than going through the Strait, at considerable cost.”
Opportunities throughout the region
Discussing the company’s growth plans, Foda said he sees strong opportunities throughout the region.
“We see fantastic growth in the UAE and Kuwait, and we’ve been increasing our footprint and business in Saudi Arabia,” he says. In Kuwait, NESR in August announced multiple contracts totalling US$300mn over five years, including an agreement to establish a research centre that will focus on several challenge-specific innovations in multiple disciplines across upstream, sustainability, and unconventional resources. NESR will pioneer innovation and bring best-in-class technologies from around the world, tailoring them to the upstream ecosystem in Kuwait. While back in March the company announced it had secured US$300mn worth of cementing contracts in Kuwait and North Africa.
“North Africa has enormous potential because of its gas, offering the scope to replace Russian gas supplies to Europe,” Foda says. “Then you have what they call the new frontier – Syria has come back, Iraq post-conflict will offer a lot of opportunity.
“That is why the region offers so much, and it’s a very unique opportunity for a company like us, because you need to be very locally established. The current situation has shown that is cost prohibitive to employ expatriates, who come and go. You have to be locally made, homegrown, while conforming to or surpassing the top international standards.”
Others should be building local capacity, as NESR is, he said, while conceding that certain products will still need to be imported or locally assembled. “You’re not going to be able to build a high-pressure wellhead in every country. It won’t be cost competitive. But for the products that are used a lot, the main components of those items should be sourced locally. The local structure also has to be done extremely well.”
Decarbonisation technology potential
NESR has always had a strong ESG focus. Discussing decarbonisisation, Foda said this is not seen as the flavour of the day right now due not only to the conflict but also due to the stance of the US administration.
“But it will come back; it is a must. We cannot as an industry continue to produce oil and gas with the same level of emissions, especially as demand is increasing. We need to eliminate emissions as far as possible. ESG is a good business path. And as the CEO of Aramco has said, this region produces oil and gas at the lowest cost with the lowest emissions. That means projects will happen.” He added that now is a good time to invest counter-cyclically in ESG and decarbonisation technology, as NESR is doing, as there are companies with very good technologies that are currently available at a low cost due to lack of demand. “It is a very good opportunity to invest and make acquisitions to get ready with your portfolio of decarbonisation implementation technology.”
NESR is spearheading environmental innovation on multiple fronts, deploying technologies across water management, flare elimination, emissions detection, heat capture, and energy transition (CCUS & Hydrogen) and now pushing into minerals for the energy transition, recently signing an agreement with Aramco for the region’s first direct lithium extraction (DLE) project.
Foda sees the greatest potential for technology breakthrough in decarbonisation, in particular addressing the economics of decarbonisation. For example if recycling produced water were made economically viable, it would be much more widely practiced. “We need to break through the economics of materials, for example DLE technology to extract lithium,” he said.
At ADIPEC, NESR will be focusing on unconventional development and minerals, such as rare earth minerals. “We have a very cool technology we want to present at ADIPEC,” Foda said. Watch this space!
Concluding, Foda declared himself “super positive” about the future, seeing “the post-conflict box of opportunity”.
Towards EN 17975 compliant Lockout/Tagout
The recent European Norm 17975 addresses ‘grey zone’ energy-related risks during machine and pipeline interventions and proposes a task based framework for safe and efficient work. The norm can further increase the safety and efficiency of Lockout/Tagout programmes in a wide range of industries
A task based safety framework
10%-15% of fatal workplace accidents in Europe’s industries are related to maintenance operations according to data from the European Agency for Safety and Health at Work. Many of these result from underestimating risks involved in specific tasks such as machine greasing, sensor adjustment or a quick cleaning that are not always seen as ‘maintenance activities’. They are kept outside the scope of Lockout/Tagout programmes even though workers are exposed to similar risks. European Norm (EN) 17975 addresses these grey zone risks by using task based risk analyses as a starting point.
“EN 17975 does not require an energy zero state for every machine or pipeline during every intervention”, said Mustafa Ekseri, EMEA Safety Engineer at Brady Corporation, a supplier of quality Lockout/Tagout solutions.
“Not having to halt an entire production line for every intervention can save valuable time - if it is possible in a safe way. To achieve this, EN 17975 proposes a layered approach based on risks related to specific tasks on specific machines and pipes. These risks are to be highlighted in a risk analysis. In absence of a risk analysis, machine zero energy states remain the safety standard. In that sense, EN 17975 builds on ISO 14118 by providing more options for compliance with European workplace safety legislation. Impacted activities can be defined using EN 17007 and EN 13306 and are also listed in EN 17975.”
Risk analysis guidance
With machine and pipe intervention safety hinging on identified risks, industries will need thorough task-based risk analyses. Guidance can be found in other standards. “ISO 12100, primarily intended for machinebuilders to take into account their customers’ workplace safety, can be used as a basis for machine intervention risk analyses. ISO 31000 provides guidelines for managing risk in general, including 8 core principles, a framework and a process.”
“EN 17975 proposes 6 steps to analyse the risk in any machine intervention task, starting with the identification of the task, all the way to a feedback loop for continuous improvement. That includes a thorough energy source inventory and identification. The standard also requires a risk analysis update before applying Standard Operating Procedures, and during maintenance activities. In addition, EN 17975 advocates clearly identified degraded situations that may deviate from the standard risk assessment.”
Task-based isolation
EN 17975 uses a task based risk approach that was captured earlier in the French norm X60-400. Based on a task risk analysis, the European Norm proposes four types of risk control processes:
- Neutralisation: a process that, through design of the control systems, shuts down an item of equipment so that a list of predetermined tasks can be conducted in safety.
- Standard isolation: a process that results in the removal – by locking in position a single or double isolating device – of all energies & fluids where the presence, accidental retention, unexpected appearance does not have hazardous consequences for workers, the environment, and items.
- Reinforced isolation: a process that results in the removal – by separation or by a combination of isolating and opening devices (e.g. valve, tap, etc.) – of all energies & fluids where the presence, accidental retention, unintended appearance does not have hazardous consequences for workers, the environment, and items.
- Specific provisions: a process that results in the implementation of organisational or technical measures enabling observation, diagnostics, testing activities and work on settings for the item in service to be carried out safely, with energies & fluids present.
“All four risk control processes require an inventory of energies and fluids per machine with their effects on people, property and the environment, a mapping of the isolating devices and an identification sheet of energies, fluids, components and lockout devices. It also requires a shared risk assessment grid and process. EN 17975 describes the aim, application conditions, type of activities and other relevant factors for each of the 4 risk control processes.”
Lockout/Tagout guidance
Complying with EN 17975 requires a human, organisational and technical approach, all of which are outlined in the norm.
EN 17975 identifies 9 steps to carry out reinforced and standard isolations by Lockout/Tagout of energies and fluids. Steps involve separation of energies and fluids, isolation, lock out, tagout, identification, dispersion of energies, check, contain and inspect. “The ‘check’ step in EN17975 is already widely known in the industry as the ‘Tryout’ in Lockout/Tagout/Tryout or LoToTo. It is a vital step to help make sure that measures are implemented correctly and that they are still effective.”
“Brady safety engineers can help industries implement isolations by writing machine- and task specific lockout procedures. These can include all nine steps from EN 17975, and they must be based on company task risk assessments. In addition, we can offer the right Lockout/Tagout tools for procedure compliance, set up a hands-on demo by locking out a specific machine, and provide training to relevant employees. Alternatively, a gap analysis can be made that identifies steps to be taken from the current state to arrive at compliant, best practice Lockout/Tagout.”
Impact on existing safety programmes
EN 17975 is not a legal requirement. “The standard however considerably facilitates compliance with EU workplace safety legislation. It sets a clear expectation for any machine intervention: if no risk analysis for the task is available, a machine zero energy state is required.”
“Because many safety programmes already involve complete machine isolation from every energy source, for every task, it is likely that the new norm will impact existing Lockout/Tagout-programmes. Based on the risk analysis, machine zero energy states may not be needed for every type of intervention.”
“Adversely, some tasks that were considered ‘small and safe’ may unveil more risk after a thorough risk analysis. This means a single machine could have several Lockout/Tagout procedures. The right procedure can be included with, or communicated via a QR-code on a work permit for example.”
“Some forms of automated safety may not be sufficient for every task without an underlying risk analysis. Take a safety cage for example, equipped with sensors that deactivate moving machine parts the moment someone enters the cage. Do these nullify any residual energy that may pose a risk? Is gravitational, and other potential energy taken into account? The goal of EN 17975 is to prevent accidents, and to avoid a false sense of safety that does not provide any real protection.”
With the European Norm 17975, industries in Europe can now rely on a common standard for compliance with EU and national safety legislation that involve risk control processes of energies and fluids in maintenance activities.
Get the Brady EN 17975 Lockout/Tagout webinar recording
Go from zero machine energy to zero intervention risk with task based Lockout/Tagout, driven by the European Norm 17975. Get your copy of the EN 17975 webinar from an experienced, worldwide Lockout/Tagout solution provider.
Discover more about:
- the unique European framework EN 17975 provides to achieve safety and efficiency
- how EN 17975 focuses on task-based safety, rather than machine zero energy states
- how EN 17975 can be used to address ‘Grey zone’ risks
- Four risk-based energy isolation levels presented by EN 17975
- Six steps to control risks
- Lockout/Tagout procedure writing
- Lockout/Tagout device and padlock types
Get the webinar recording now >
Draw inspiration from our free guidebook on how to best implement Lockout/Tagout. . Download the free guide >
BRADY Middle East
Mustafa Ekseri works as a Safety Engineer for Brady Europe, Middle East and Africa. He is involved in planning, writing procedures and rolling out Lockout/Tagout programmes at manufacturing and logistics workplaces throughout Europe. He is a Prevention Advisor Level 2, a Belgian legally regulated curriculum that equips professionals to handle safety and health risks in businesses.
Nayef Bou Chaaya, vice president, Middle East, Turkey & Central Asia, AVEVA.
Making every barrel count in a volatile commodity environment
The Strait of Hormuz crisis shows how vulnerable the supply chain is to geopolitics, making agility and resilience impossible to ignore, writes Nayef Bou Chaaya, vice president, Middle East, Turkey & Central Asia at AVEVA
The oil industry began the year determined to boost crude production to cover a looming global supply-demand gap. Yet on February 28, that challenge became far more acute than anyone could have predicted.
The onset of the US-Israel-Iran war and the ensuing Strait of Hormuz crisis has completely changed the mood inside the oil industry. The world is facing prolonged higher-for-longer oil prices where every barrel suddenly matters more, and every operational inefficiency starts eating directly into profits.
At the peak of the disruption, the market was dealing with the loss of around 12 million barrels per day of crude supply, according to Rystad Energy. That is roughly 11% of total global oil demand. On an annualized basis, it equates to more than four billion barrels of supply either trapped, delayed or prevented from reaching the market efficiently.
Oil prices had jumped from around USUS$80 per barrel before the conflict to above US$100. Some analysts project prices could still edge to $180 by the end of the year. That has created a rare profit window for producers outside the Middle East, who are trying to strike while the iron is hot and get as much as possible out of existing infrastructure while conditions remain favourable.
This is not just about drilling more wells
As time is of the essence – both for countries keen to get more supply and for oil majors who want to make the most of high prices – the focus is now on optimising every drop.
Small improvements in uptime, throughput or refinery performance that might once have had limited commercial impact can now translate into millions of dollars in additional revenue. A compressor failure or unplanned shutdown that was once a routine maintenance headache is now enormously costly.
This is where predictive analytics can have an outsized impact, enabling producers to constantly monitor assets and catch problems before they escalate into equipment failure or shutdowns. The current geopolitical environment has only turbocharged this shift, accelerating the move towards industrial AI and integrated operational systems across the sector.
Rystad Energy estimates AI and digital technologies will create close to US$500 billion in cumulative value for exploration and production (E&P) companies between 2026 and 2030.
Not all crude is equal
Refiners are also dealing with another major challenge: crude availability has become much more unpredictable.
Refineries use blends and slates sourced from multiple regions, which all have different properties and refining characteristics. Texas crude behaves differently from Saudi crude. Saudi crude behaves differently from Abu Dhabi crude. Venezuelan crude behaves differently again.
In stable market conditions, those crude slates are relatively predictable. However, refiners are now forced to change their crude oil slate because certain crude streams are no longer accessible. This creates a much more complicated optimisation problem.
Historically, engineering teams would run a limited number of operational scenarios manually. Now industrial AI systems can run thousands of crude blend combinations simultaneously while incorporating crude prices, refined product prices, electricity costs, operational constraints and regional market demand – determining in near real-time exactly which combination will generate the highest profitability possible.
AI augments human strategy
Importantly, the industry is not treating AI as some magical black box replacing engineering expertise. Inside oil and gas, there is still a very strong understanding that AI is only as good as the underlying engineering models feeding it.
AI is extremely good at interpreting data, however, the actual engineering calculations still need to come from first-principles engineering models and thermodynamics.
I like to use a comparative aviation analogy. For example, let’s say passengers boarded a plane and someone announced that AI would be flying the entire flight. Most people would probably get off right away.
Yet, modern aviation already relies heavily on automation. Pilots still handle take-off, landing, direction, speed and oversight while automated systems manage most of the journey in between. Industrial AI is evolving in a similar manner.
Human operators still define objectives, constraints and desired outcomes while AI handles huge amounts of analytical work and scenario modelling faster than humans can manually. This practice matters in a conservative industry where operational mistakes carry enormous financial and safety consequences.
Counting the cost
Production accounting systems are also becoming strategically more important because relatively small discrepancies in incoming or outgoing shipments can seriously affect margins when oil prices are high. If a company purchases one million barrels but only receives 990,000, the financial implications suddenly become much more significant.
In sum, what this all means is that the market is increasingly rewarding operational integration as much as production scale.
While longer term, the industry will continue investing in energy diversification, right now the challenge is more immediate: keeping the world moving during one of the most volatile commodity environments in decades – and making every barrel count.
No one knows when this window will close – or when the next one will open.
Amin. H. Nasser, president and CEO of Aramco. (Image source: Aramco)
Aramco CEO underlines need to strengthen oil and gas supply resilience
At the Energy Intelligence Forum in London, where energy security and energy resilience was at the top of the agenda, Aramco’s CEO Amin H. Nasser underlined the critical importance of Middle East oil and gas supplies, the need for deeper resilience, and why energy resilience and energy security should be a shared responsibility between producers and consumers
The disruption to flows through the Strait of Hormuz has exposed how deeply energy security, economic security, and geopolitical events are connected, Nasser commented.
He noted that at the beginning of the crisis there were almost 10bn barrels of global oil stocks, since when nearly 3bn barrels of gross oil supply has been lost – around half the crude and products that would normally have moved through the Strait of Hormuz over the same period.
“Existing buffers have cushioned the blow and bought time, but they are finite. And while the squeeze on crude is serious, refined fuel prices have risen even more sharply.
“Emergency reserves might buy us a winter. They cannot fix long-term supply.
“Until Hormuz fully re-opens and confidence returns, the crude reality is that pressure at both ends of the barrel will intensify.”
Replenishing inventories while meeting demand could take up to two years, he added. The supply resilience cushion is “scarily thin.”
“The world has been reminded that no energy source, route, or system is risk-free. This crisis has raised the risk baseline. And that higher risk must be matched by deeper resilience, built across multiple layers.”
Deeper resilience
This is exemplified in Aramco’s resilience approach, which includes separating critical facilities; building in backup equipment; planning for maintenance; emergency command and firefighting excellence; rapid damage assessment; restoring damaged infrastructure at pace and investing in its people.
Reducing dependence on chokepoints is also important. Aramco is studying additional routes for crude exports, while exploring more overseas storage to help cover short-term disruptions.
Emphasising the critical importance of Middle East oil and gas supplies, Nasser highlighted the need to re-assess oil policies to ensure they remain aligned with the strategic goal of long-term energy security.
“Because energy security and resilience is a shared responsibility between producers and consumers,” he stressed. “This crisis is much more than an energy supply shock in Hormuz,” he added, citing the attacks on facilities and shipping.
“The international community must stand together to safeguard the free flow of energy and goods.”
Oil and gas infrastructure is a “collective necessity for producers and consumers alike,” he said, urging collaboration to minimise and adapt to shocks.
“We can collaborate on emergency response; better supply planning; refinery and petrochemicals flexibility; joint stockpiling; and long-term relationships. And stronger finances, supply chains, and cybersecurity are a must. “
Nasser concluded with a plea to “end the era of cyclical under-investment”, highlighting the integral importance of resilience.
“This crisis has finally exposed the false choice between energy security, affordability and sustainability.
“They are inseparable, and the future energy system must be built on all three. Middle East oil and gas remain central to that system for decades to come. Strengthening the resilience of these vital supplies is therefore a global strategic necessity."