Global oil demand set to grow strongly to 2050: OPEC

Global oil demand is set for continued robust growth to 2050, reaching almost 123 mn bpd by then, according to OPEC’s newly-launched 2025 World Oil Outlook (WOO)

OPEC forecasts that the world will require more energy in the decades to come, with global energy demand set to expand by 23% to 2050. This will be driven almost entirely from developing regions, led by India, Other Asia, Africa and the Middle East. Energy will need to be available in a “secure, stable and realistic manner” according to OPEC Secretary General, HE Haitham Al Ghais. Energy demand is set to rise from 308mn  barrels of oil equivalent (mboe/d) in 2024 to 378 mboe/d in 2050.

HE Al Ghais also highlighted that the world will continue to need all energies. “It is also a future in which we need to embrace all technologies, to drive innovation and efficiencies, and ensure that all peoples are taken into account, particularly given that it is the non-OECD developing world that will drive future energy growth”.

The report notes that energy policies across major economies are undergoing a significant recalibration, with a noticeable trend of policy pushback and intensified scrutiny, primarily in the US and in a number of other developed countries. Decision-makers are increasingly challenged to address a variety of priorities, including energy security, energy affordability, reducing emissions, sustainability and industrial competitiveness.

Oil is set to maintain the largest share in the energy mix in 2050, at just below 30%, according to the report. The combined share of oil and gas is expected to account for more than 50% between 2024 and 2050.

Supported by recent policy shifts and an improved economic outlook, global oil demand is set for continued robust growth of 9.6mn bpd over the medium-term period, rising from 103.7 mn bpd in 2024 to 113.3 mn bpd by 2030, with non-OECD countries leading this demand. In the long term, global oil demand is projected to rise by more than 19 mn bpd between 2024 and 2050, reaching almost 123 mn bpd.  India, Other Asia, the Middle East and Africa are set to be the primary sources of long-term oil demand growth.

In terms of demand by sector, the transportation sector accounted for more than 57% of global oil demand in 2024 and is projected to retain this share over the entire forecast period, with growth driven by road transportation and aviation. A significant demand increase is also projected in the petrochemical sector.

Middle East crude and condensate exports are likely to increase to all major importing regions, with more than 80% of Middle Eastern exports set to be shipped to the Asia-Pacific.

The report highlights the need for continued investment to satisfy rising demand, as well as to offset natural decline in mature fields, estimating that global cumulative investments of US$18.2 trillion are required over the 2025–2050 period, mainly for the upstream sector. “The challenge of meeting these investment requirements is huge, and any shortfall in meeting these needs could impact market stability and energy security,” the report cautions.