E&P

Global subsea market set for strong growth

The subsea market is set to experience a significant inflow of capital from 2024-2027, with total spending set to exceed US$42bn at a CAGR of 10% over this period, according to Rystad Energy

The growth is driven by investment in deep and ultra-deep projects and includes players involved in production and processing systems such as subsea umbilical risers and flowlines (SURF), trees, wellheads, manifolds and other components.

Driven by rising operator expenditure on equipment and installation services, investment activity has been particularly robust in regions such as South America and Europe, where major projects are making significant progress and attracting new investment. Brazil, with its vast pre-salt reserves, is driving strong demand for subsea equipment and SURF, with anticipated expenditure set to surge 18% to US$6bn in 2024. Meanwhile, in Europe, Norway is experiencing a resurgence in activity, fuelled by favourable market conditions and technological advancements.

Deepwater developments are set to dominate the sector, accounting for 45% of the market from 2024 to 2028. Significant greenfield projects include Barracuda Revitalization in Brazil, Johan Castberg and Breidablikk in Norway and Golfinho in Mozambique. Key brownfield initiatives include Balder Future, Gullfaks South and Schiehallion in Norway and the UK.

Ultra-deepwater projects, driven by major floating production, storage and offloading (FPSO) initiatives in Brazil and Guyana, are projected to capture 35% of the market, led by South America.

In 2024, ExxonMobil's expanded operations, with a focus on Guyana, are expected to significantly boost subsea tree installations, while in the SURF sector, global installations are anticipated to reach 3,500 km in 2024., with Brazil expected to account for 22% of this total, followed by the USA and Angola.

Looking ahead, TechnipFMC, OneSubsea and Aker Solutions are expected to lead the way in the supply of subsea trees. In terms of operators, Petrobras remains a dominant operator, particularly in South America, where it has heavily invested in pre-salt developments. In Europe, Equinor and Aker BP have extensive subsea portfolios, with significant tieback projects on the Norwegian Continental Shelf, while in the USA, Shell and BP lead with substantial investments in deepwater and ultra-deepwater exploration and production. TotalEnergies holds a strong position in Africa, especially in Angola and Nigeria.

The subsea sector is also expanding beyond traditional oil and gas applications, Rystad notes. The push for carbon capture and storage (CCS) is creating new opportunities for suppliers and spurring research and development in this emerging market. Consequently, suppliers are leading the way in developing more efficient subsea production systems, which are set to see broader adoption.

“The subsea market has rebounded robustly from the impacts of Covid-19, which caused a significant 20% drop in expenditure in 2020. By 2021, the industry began to recover, with spending increasing by 5% to reach US$23bn. Looking ahead, we anticipate steady growth in the subsea sector, fuelled by advancements in deepwater exploration and carbon capture and storage (CCS). This recovery highlights the industry’s resilience and suggests a promising trajectory of consistent progress,” said Sanwari Mahajan, analyst, supply chain research, Rystad Energy.

ADNOC Drilling sees steady revenue increase in 2024

Both onshore and offshore operations, and oilfield services did well. (Image source: Adnoc Drilling)

Driven by operational expansion across all business segments, ADNOC Drilling’s second quarter and first half 2024 revenue increased to US$935mn, surpassing US$1.8bn, up year-on-year by 29% and 26% respectively

There was a steady revenue increase in both onshore and offshore operations, and in oilfield services as well.

“ADNOC Drilling has continued to deliver on its strategic initiatives and has successfully closed the first half of the year on a strong note, achieving multiple milestones.

“The Company’s performance for the period is a continued reflection of our unwavering commitment to operational excellence and efficiency in every aspect of our business. Our achievements for the period are a testament to the relentless dedication of our people, whose efforts are central to delivering outstanding service to our customers and maximising value for our shareholders,”said Abdulrahman Abdulla Al Seiari, CEO, ADNOC Drilling.

The strong top-line translated into record EBITDA both in the quarter and the first half. Second quarter EBITDA increased by 37% year-on-year and 8% sequentially to US$472mn, yielding a 50% EBITDA margin. Consistency in revenue growth and cost-cutting strategies led to US$909mn EBITDA in the first half of the year, up 34% year-on-year and with a margin increase to 50%.

Net profit for the quarter also grew, up 29% year-on-year and 7% sequentially to US$295mn, driven by the increase in EBITDA, while for the first half the figure stood at US$570mn, up 28% year-on-year.

At the end of the second quarter, the fleet consisted of 140 rigs (136 owned plus four lease-to-own land rigs), up from 137 at the end of the first quarter due to the addition of three land rigs.

Encouraged by the positive results, the Board of Directors has approved an interim dividend of US$394mn, +10% year-on-year under new enhanced and progressive dividend policy, equivalent to 9.0468 fils per share.

The interim dividend distribution is expected to be in the last week of August 2024, to all shareholders of record as of August 12, 2024.