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Energy Transition

Breakdown of the share of direct revenue from the sale of CO2 utilisation products. (Image source: IDTech Ex)

Eve Pope, technology analyst at IDTechEx assesses developments in CO2 utilisation, with the market forecast to grow to US$240bn by 2045

Carbon capture technologies capable of removing CO2 from industrial emissions have been around for more than 50 years, but widescale deployment of CCUS (carbon capture, utilisation, and storage) has been too slow for global net-zero ambitions. While governments are beginning to implement carbon pricing mechanisms or tax credits to motivate permanent storage of CO2 deep underground, a profitable business model exists beyond CO2 sequestration via emerging CO2 utilisation applications. According to the new IDTechEx research report, Carbon Dioxide Utilization 2025-2045: Technologies, Market Forecasts, and Players, sales from CO2 utilisation will directly generate US$240bn in revenue in 2045.

Carbon dioxide utilisation technologies recycle captured CO2. The new carbon-containing products can be sold to generate financial benefits while offering a reduction in carbon footprint. The leading destination of captured carbon dioxide today is enhanced oil recovery. However, there are many emerging areas of CO2 recycling, including CO2-derived concrete, CO2-derived fuels (methane, methanol, kerosene, diesel, and gasoline), CO2-derived chemicals, and CO2 yield boosting applications (crop greenhouses, algae, and proteins).

Profitable production

Profitable production of CO2-derived polymers has been around for decades. The total annual production capacity of polycarbonate resin using CO2 utilisation technology has now reached about 1 million tonnes. Other essential plastics, such as polyethylene and PET, are starting to be made from CO2 via thermochemical and biological conversion routes, with LanzaTech leading microbial innovation in this space. Drop-in chemicals such as CO2-derived ethanol and aromatics are also being commercialised.

While potentially all carbon-containing chemicals could utilise carbon dioxide in production, those requiring non-reductive pathways are the most promising due to a smaller energy demand and lack of dependency on low-carbon hydrogen production. The IDTechEx report explores synthesis routes for chemical companies to use waste CO2 as a green feedstock, displacing petrochemical products.

Decarbonising the aviation and shipping sectors

To date, alternative fuels have not achieved price parity with fossil fuels, inhibiting market uptake. However, increased market penetration of CO2-derived fuels is expected to come from regulations already being put in place, such as fuel-blend mandates for long-haul transportation. As green hydrogen electrolyzer capacity scales up worldwide, production of e-fuels from carbon dioxide using power-to-x technology will also increase. These fuels are expected to play a role in decarbonising shipping and aviation as full electrification of the aviation and maritime sectors is currently unfeasible.

Several CO2-derived fuels are already being commercially produced with many more commercial facilities expected over the next decade. The start of 2024 saw Mitsui and Celanese’s joint venture Fairway Methanol become operational, joining plants from Carbon Recycling International in producing over 100,000 tonnes per year of methanol made from captured CO2. Other hydrocarbon fuels such as kerosene, diesel, and gasoline, which can be made via methanol or syngas intermediates, are also being ramped up. For example, Infinium’s Corpus Facility opened its doors this year, expected to produce thousands of tonnes per annum of CO2-derived e-fuels.

CO2-derived concrete

CO2 utilisation can lower the carbon footprint of ready-mixed concrete, precast concrete, and carbonate aggregates/supplementary cementitious materials through CO2 mineralisation reactions. Players already utilising over 10,000 tonnes of carbon dioxide each year in carbonates include O.C.O Technology and Greencore.

When CO2 is permanently stored in concrete, performance is improved, and less cement is needed. Growth of CO2-derived building materials will be driven by new certifications, superior materials performance, and the ability to achieve price parity through waste disposal fees and the sale of carbon credits.

E-methane is gaining global attention. (Image source: Synergy)

E-methane, a synthetic gas that holds immense potential for the future of energy, is quickly gaining global attention

Although the commercial production of e-methane has yet to begin, the momentum behind this innovative technology is growing rapidly.

E-methane is produced through a process that combines low-emission hydrogen with a carbon source, such as captured CO2 or biomass. This process results in a synthetic gas that closely mimics the physical and chemical properties of conventional natural gas.

The growing interest in e-methane is driven by its potential to play a critical role in the energy transition. As the world seeks to reduce its reliance on fossil fuels and lower greenhouse gas emissions, the need for low-emission alternatives to natural gas is becoming increasingly urgent. E-methane offers a unique advantage in this regard. It can be used within the existing methane network, providing a way to decarbonise natural gas without the immediate need for new infrastructure investments.

Furthermore, e-methane could serve as a bridge between today’s methane networks and the hydrogen networks of the future. Hydrogen is often touted as a key component of the future energy system, but its widespread adoption is hindered by challenges related to storage, transportation, and infrastructure compatibility. E-methane, which behaves almost identically to natural gas, could ease the transition to a hydrogen-based energy system by allowing for a gradual integration of hydrogen into existing gas grids.

Unlike hydrogen, which requires advanced and costly storage solutions, e-methane can be stored on a large scale in existing infrastructure, such as depleted natural gas fields and underground aquifers. This ability to store e-methane in significant quantities makes it an ideal solution for addressing seasonal energy demand variations. During periods of high demand, stored e-methane can be released into the grid, ensuring a reliable supply of energy even when renewable sources like wind and solar are not producing at full capacity.

The economic challenge

Despite its many advantages, e-methane faces a significant hurdle: cost. The current levelised cost of e-methane is estimated to range between US$50 and US$200 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), which is substantially higher than traditional natural gas prices or landed LNG prices. For e-methane to become a viable alternative to natural gas, substantial reductions in production costs are necessary.

This cost challenge is not insurmountable, but it will require significant advancements in technology and economies of scale. By 2040 or 2050, it is anticipated that the cost of e-methane could be reduced to a level that makes it competitive with traditional natural gas, particularly as carbon pricing and other regulatory measures increasingly penalise the use of fossil fuels.

In the meantime, the first e-methane projects are beginning to take shape. Japan has emerged as a leading proponent of e-methane, viewing it as a critical component of its energy strategy. The country has set an ambitious target: by 2050, 90% of city gas demand is expected to be met by e-methane. This commitment is driven by Japan’s need to secure a stable and low-carbon energy supply, as the country seeks to reduce its dependence on imported fossil fuels and meet its climate goals.

E-methane looks to become a key player in the global energy transition. Its compatibility with existing gas infrastructure, ability to serve as a bridge to a hydrogen-based energy system, and potential for large-scale storage make it an attractive option for decarbonising the natural gas sector.

This article is authored by Synergy Consulting IFA

The new solution helps carbon storage developers quantify the risks associated with wells at prospective storage sites. (Image source: SLB)

SLB has launched a well integrity assessment solution that helps carbon storage developers quantify the risks associated with wells at prospective storage sites with previous drilling activity

Establishing secure storage sites is essential to enabling growth of CCUS and creating a low carbon energy ecosystem. However, many prospective carbon storage sites are located in either mature or retired oil and gas fields. Having a large number of wells at a site can increase the risk of potential leakage pathways for the stored carbon.

Understanding the risks

SLB’s new methodology for quantifying the probability and potential impact of carbon leakage helps customers understand the risks associated with each well, informing remediation strategies and ultimately estimating the project's long-term viability. The solution incorporates advanced failure mode effect and criticality analysis (FMECA) to assess potential leakage pathways, well barrier, failure mechanisms and resulting consequences. Using advanced multi-physics 3D modeling, SLB can assess the volume and flow rates of brine and carbon leakage over time to better estimate risk.

“The significance of the risks associated with each well and the costs of remediation to mitigate leakage risks can make a project economically unfeasible,” said Frederik Majkut, senior vice president of Industrial Decarbonization, SLB. “By addressing potential well integrity issues early in the development process, SLB’s well integrity assessment solution can help storage developers avoid costly delays or operational disruptions, and drive companies toward their net zero ambitions.”

The project will demystify decarbonisation economics. (Image source: Kent)

Kent is collaborating with the UK’s Energy Institute to create guidelines for decarbonisation economics in Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emission reduction projects in the upstream oil and gas industries

This report will provide clear, actionable guidance to help the sector achieve its environmental goals, demystifying the economics of decarbonisation, including the societal cost of carbon. While it will focus on the UK North Sea upstream sector, it will take a global view so that it can serve as a basis for future research across the world. It will involve the collaboration of Kent’s Environmental team, Asset Decarbonisation team, and Energy Environment Economic (E3) Modelling and Communications team.

Key objectives

The guidelines will address the following key objectives:

Demystifying Decarbonisation Economics: Provide clarity for energy professionals with limited exposure to project economics, such as environmental or sustainability managers.
Understanding Carbon Costs: Offer insights into how carbon costs are calculated and influenced by market forces, including societal costs.
Alternative Metrics: Recommend non-standard metrics beyond NPV to ensure that decarbonisation goals are met, delivered as a technical note to the industry.
Justification of Metrics: Articulate and justify the choice of both standard and non-standard metrics used in the guidance.
Upstream O&G Value Chain: Focus on the upstream sector of the O&G value chain affected by decarbonisation and assess the potential to broaden the scope to the full value chain.

"We have seen the challenges of presenting decarbonisation projects against standard project economics with the only justification being the reduced OPEX related to Emission Trading Scheme credits and potential increased revenue from an increase in sales gas quantities from reducing fuel and flare gas," said Graham Filsell, Kent’s Decarbonisation lead. "There is a strong case for the societal cost of carbon and potentially an individual asset marginal abatement cost to form part of the project economics for decarbonisation projects."

James Lawson, chair of USEG (Upstream Environmental Group) added, "Decarbonisation and GHG reduction projects are inherently holistic, involving a wide spectrum of energy professionals, many of whom have not previously engaged in economic assessments and project prioritisation. Furthermore, these projects compete for capital and resources with other industry sectors. Therefore, a clear, concise, and targeted document that all energy professionals can refer to will be invaluable for ensuring that capital and resources are allocated appropriately and in line with net zero commitments."

The range covers every application of the hydrogen value chain. (Image source: Trelleborg)

Trelleborg Sealing Solutions has launched the full H2Pro range of more than 20 sealing compounds for every application of the hydrogen value chain, from production to transport and storage and end-use

Proven to withstand challenging application environments, the materials are suitable for high pressures, low temperatures, and resist permeation, making them better able to withstand rapid gas decompression (RGD), while also demonstrating excellent wear and extrusion properties.

James Simpson, global segment director energy, said, “As the smallest and lightest molecule, hydrogen has the potential to drive the energy transition, but it is difficult and complex to seal.

“The lack of relevant industry standards to validate our materials against was a major challenge when developing the H2Pro range. Some in the nascent hydrogen industry rely on standards used typically for high-pressure gasses in the oil and gas sector, but these are often unsuitable for replicating real-world hydrogen application conditions.

“Trelleborg has developed proprietary testing protocols that replicate real-world hydrogen applications, providing customers with confidence in products to make the energy transition reliable, efficient and economic.”

Trelleborg's proprietary test standards cover hydrogen permeation, endurance validation and hydrogen compatibility, including the ability to withstand rapid gas compression (RGD). Occurring when hydrogen permeates into a seal under pressure, RGD can cause seals to blister and crack when pressure is rapidly relieved.

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