Read the Digital Magazine

Onshore Middle East is the cheapest source of new oil production, as the cost of developing new upstream oil projects continues to rise, according to new research from Rystad Energy

According to Rystad Energy, the average breakeven cost of a non-OPEC oil project grew to US$47 per barrel of Brent crude, a 5% increase in the last year alone, thanks to inflationary pressure and supply chain issues. Offshore deepwater and tight oil projects remain the most economical new supply sources, with oil sands still the most expensive.

The report found that onshore Middle East is the cheapest source of new production, with an average breakeven price of just US$27 per barrel. This segment also boasts one of the most significant resource potentials. Offshore shelf is the next cheapest (US$37 per barrel), followed by offshore deepwater (US$43) and North American shale (US$45). Conversely, oil sands production breakevens average US$57 per barrel, but can go as high as around US$75.

Cost pressures

"Rising breakeven prices reflect the increasing cost pressures on the upstream industry. This challenges the economic feasibility of some new projects, but certain segments, including offshore and tight oil, continue to offer competitive costs, ensuring supply can still be brought online to meet future demand. Managing these cost increases will be critical to sustaining long-term production growth,” said Espen Erlingsen, head of Upstream Research at Rystad Energy.

As well as breakevens, average payback for new projects, internal rate of return (IRR) and carbon dioxide (CO2) intensity are vital metrics for evaluating new oil development economics. The tight oil sector’s payback time is just two years, assuming an average oil price of US$70 per barrel, illustrating how quickly operators are recovering their investments. Payback time is closer to 10 years or more for the other supply segments. Tight oil also leads the pack in terms of IRR, with an estimated IRR of around 35% in the same average oil price scenario. Conversely, oil sands, the most expensive supply source, has the lowest IRR of approximately 12%.

Over the last three years, the average CO2 intensity for tight oil has been 14 kilograms per barrel of oil equivalent (kg per boe), while deepwater has a slightly higher average CO2 intensity of 15 kg per boe. The oil sands sector again falls behind the other segments, with the highest future estimated emissions at around 70 kg per boe.

DNV has released its 'Energy Transition Outlook', which notes that 2024 will go down as the year of peak energy emissions

Energy-related emissions are at the cusp of a prolonged period of decline for the first time since the industrial revolution. Emissions are set to almost halve by 2050, but this is a long way short of requirements of the Paris Agreement. The Outlook forecasts the planet will warm by 2.2 °C by end of the century.

The peaking of emissions is largely due to plunging costs of solar and batteries which are accelerating the exit of coal from the energy mix and stunting the growth of oil. Annual solar installations increased 80% last year as it beat coal on cost in many regions. Cheaper batteries, which dropped 14% in cost last year, are also making the 24-hour delivery of solar power and electric vehicles more affordable. The uptake of oil was limited as electrical vehicles sales grew by 50%. In China, where both of these trends were especially pronounced, peak gasoline is now in the past.

China is dominating much of the global action on decarbonisation at present, particularly in the production and export of clean technology. It accounted for 58% of global solar installations and 63% of new electrical vehicle purchases last year. And whilst it remains the world’s largest consumer of coal and emitter of CO2, its dependence on fossil fuels is set to fall rapidly as it continues to install solar and wind. China is the dominating exporter of green technologies although international tariffs are making their goods more expensive in some territories.

“Solar PV and batteries are driving the energy transition, growing even faster than we previously forecasted,” said Remi Eriksen, group president and CEO of DNV. “Emissions peaking is a milestone for humanity. But we must now focus on how quickly emissions decline and use the available tools to accelerate the energy transition. Worryingly, our forecasted decline is very far from the trajectory required to meet the Paris Agreement targets. In particular, the hard-to-electrify sectors need a renewed policy push.”

Striking shifts in energy mix

The success of solar and batteries is not replicated in the hard-to-abate sectors, where essential technologies are scaling slowly. DNV has revised the long-term forecast for hydrogen and its derivatives down by 20% (from 5% to 4% of final energy demand in 2050) since last year. And although DNV has revised up its carbon capture and storage forecast, only 2% of global emissions will be captured by CCS in 2040 and 6% in 2050. A global carbon price would accelerate the uptake of these technologies.

Wind remains an important driver of the energy transition, contributing to 28% of electricity generation by 2050. In the same timeframe, offshore wind will experience 12% annual growth rate although the current headwinds impacting the industry are weighing on growth.

Despite these challenges, the peaking of emissions is a sign that the energy transition is progressing. The energy mix is moving from a roughly 80/20 mix in favour of fossil fuels today, to one which is split equally between fossil and non-fossil fuels by 2050. In the same timeframe, electricity use will double, which is also at the driver of energy demand only increasing 10%.

“There is a growing mismatch between short term geopolitical and economic priorities versus the need to accelerate the energy transition. There is a compelling green dividend on offer which should give policymakers the courage to not only double down on renewable technologies, but to tackle the expensive and difficult hard-to-electrify sectors with firm resolve,” added Eriksen

The Outlook also examines the impact of artificial intelligence on the energy transition. AI will have a profound impact on many aspects of the energy system, particularly for the transmission and distribution of power. And although data points are currently sparse, DNV does not forecast that the energy footprint of AI will alter the overall direction of the transition. It will account for 2% of electricity demand by 2050.

*CO2 emissions from the combustion of coal, oil and gas

Honeywell has launched a new process to improve the efficiency and sustainability of light olefin production

The naphtha to ethane and propane (NEP) technology generates a tunable amount of ethane and propane from naphtha and/or LPG feedstocks, generating more high-value ethylene and propylene with reduced production of lower-value by-products compared to a traditional mixed-feed steam cracking unit and resulting in net cash margin increases. An NEP-based olefins complex also reduces CO2 intensity per metric ton of light olefins produced by 5 to 50% versus a traditional mixed-feed steam cracker.

More efficient production

“The petrochemical industry faces strong competition and challenges in obtaining raw materials globally,” said Matt Spalding, vice president and general manager of Honeywell Energy and Sustainability Solutions in MENA. “Our technology helps to enable more efficient production of ethylene and propylene, two chemicals which are in high demand, while also helping our customers lower their carbon emissions.”

The new solution is a part of Honeywell’s Integrated Olefin Suite technology portfolio to enhance the production of light olefins.

Yokogawa Electric Corporation has launched a new ATEX-compliant wireless steam trap monitoring device for steam trap status monitoring in steam piping equipment

Developed with thermal utility engineering firm Armstrong International, the new product is part of Yokogawa's Sushi Sensor range in the OpreX Asset Management and Integrity family.

Steam traps are installed on steam distribution pipes, heat exchangers, humidifiers, sterilisers, tracers, and other equipment to remove condensate and ensure efficient heat transfer. Losses from failures in steam traps can reach tens of thousands to millions of US dollars annually. Currently, in most instances, workers are responsible for inspecting and monitoring steam traps wherever they have been installed. While the installation of an automatic monitoring system is an effective way to reduce this inspection workload, the cost of installing such systems has been cost prohibitive. In addition, there is the need to monitor not only the status of steam traps, but also a wide range of related equipment.

By facilitating the timely detection of failures in steam traps, the new product can significantly reduce energy loss. When used in combination with the other wireless pressure sensors, wireless temperature sensors, and wireless vibration sensors in the Sushi Sensor lineup, this device enables the monitoring of a wide range of equipment. Features include:

1. Automatic detection of steam trap status

This device utilises a high-quality temperature sensor and an acoustic sensor to detect the status of steam traps. It can be used in environments with a maximum steam temperature of 440°C.

2. Lower wireless network construction costs

The use of long-range wireless LoRaWAN communication gives this device the ability to communicate at distances of up to around 1km, enabling the monitoring of equipment over a wide area. These monitoring devices can thus be easily installed wherever steam traps are located, and can be connected to a single gateway, thereby holding down network construction costs.

3. Better consistency in inspection quality and less time spent on on-site inspections

The use of Yokogawa’s on-premise GA10 data logging software or other similar cloud-based software will enable the centralised monitoring of steam traps and other equipment wherever they are installed around a plant. Not only will this make for greater consistency in inspection quality, it will mean that on-site inspections do not need to be carried out as frequently.

Hiroshi Tanoguchi, a Yokogawa Electric vice president and executive officer, and head of the Yokogawa Products Headquarters, said, “With this release, we have enriched the Sushi Sensor family of solutions and made it possible to construct networks efficiently and at a lower cost. In the future, we intend to provide this as an energy monitoring solution. Based on steam trap status, this will enable the calculation of projected energy losses in monetary terms and facilitate the creation of maintenance plans, with the priority on high-risk equipment. Through the provision of such highly convenient solutions, Yokogawa is helping its customers reduce their emissions of greenhouse gases and hit their ESG management targets.”

This new product is available in Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, and Saudi Arabia. It will be later released in the USA, Europe, and India in compliance with IECEx, FM, and other explosion-protected standards.

GPT Industries, in association with Oil Review Middle East, is hosting a free webinar tailored specifically for pipeline corrosion and integrity professionals on Tuesday 29 October at 2pm GST

In the fast-paced world of pipeline integrity, innovation and safety are paramount to achieving operational success.

The session will explore the latest advancements in isolation gasket technology and how they are transforming pipeline operations in the Middle East, sharing practical insights gained from decades of GPT Industries’ industry leadership.

Our expert speaker Ian Kinnear, product manager at GPT Industries, the leading manufacturer of critical pipeline sealing and electrical isolation products, will provide valuable insights on how the company is addressing critical challenges, such as corrosion, extreme environmental conditions and the increasing demand for sustainability in pipeline operations. The webinar will cover:

• Combatting pipeline corrosion: Discover how modern isolation technologies are tackling corrosion issues, ensuring the safety and integrity of your pipelines.
• Supporting emerging energy markets: Learn how our gaskets are evolving to meet the demands of new energy sectors, including hydrogen.
• Lessons from the field: Gain insights from real-world case studies addressing challenges such as extreme temperatures, chemical exposure, and high-pressure environments.
• Reducing emissions: Understand how the latest sealing technologies are contributing to emissions reduction and advancing sustainability goals.
• Best practices for long-term sealing integrity: Benefit from practical tips and lessons learned from years of troubleshooting complex pipeline challenges.

Don’t miss this opportunity to gain expert knowledge and practical tips for enhancing your pipeline systems and tackling pipeline integrity challenges.

You can register for the free webinar at https://alaincharlestraining.com/webinar2/gpt-industries-webinar

Abu Dhabi-based Emirati fully independent EPC contractor and technology integrator MMEC Mannesmann has rebranded as Mannesmann Energy, reflecting its increased focus on new energies and support for the energy transition

Oil Review Middle East spoke to its CEO, Eng. Anas Aljuaidi, who explained the rationale behind the new brand identity, officially announced at the Investing in Green Hydrogen conference in London in September.

Aljuaidi explains that the company, with its MMEC Mannesmann heritage, has a strong background in oil and gas, construction and heavy engineering, but has since 2020, when it became a wholly-owned Emirati company, diversified into renewable energy and sustainability sectors.

“We are still supporting the decarbonisation of oil and gas, in for example EOR projects, but are looking to do more in renewable energy and energy generally, in support of the energy transition,” Aljuaidi says. The new name therefore more accurately reflects the scope of the company’s activities, with 50-70% of its projects envisaged to be in renewables by 2030.

Mannesmann Energy plays a key role in the UAE’s energy transition, focusing on low-carbon pilot projects and contributing to decarbonisation and net-zero goals. Its expertise supports the UAE Hydrogen Strategy by accelerating the adoption of advanced technologies through strategic partnerships with leading renewable sector providers. Eng. Aljuaidi notes that the company was the first contractor in the UAE to be involved in green hydrogen, having acted as the EPC contractor for the supply and operation of a high-speed hydrogen refuelling station in Masdar City, the first of its kind in the region, with recharging capabilities of 750 bar. It is about to announce its second blue hydrogen project in the region.

“We are emphasising our capabilities as an EPC contractor and technology integrator, and adding value from an engineering perspective to accelerate hydrogen implementation in the UAE,” he says. “Our ambition is to keep the highest market share when it comes to clean energy and clean hydrogen, whether blue or green, to support the UAE’s hydrogen strategy.

“Being a technology integrator is our strength, as we can work with any technology to meet our clients’ expectations. That’s one of our areas of expertise. We have an excellent engineering team with international expertise that can evaluate technologies and advise the project developer on the best technology for the application, and how to reduce the CAPEX and OPEX cost to make it more viable for the market.”

Keeping costs down

While hydrogen is rapidly gaining momentum, the cost of developing projects can be prohibitive, with many calling for increased government support and incentives. Eng. Anas Aljuaidi has a strong opinion on this.

“Our philosophy is that is we should not rely on governments to bring costs down; there is a lot we, the EPC companies, can be doing ourselves to reduce costs, for example expanding our supply chain by engaging new technology providers and SMEs rather than going to the top tier companies, whose costs are often unbelievably high, and by using competitive sources of components. In any hydrogen project, the electrolyser accounts for only 20% of the total cost; 80% is accounted for by the EPC. So the project developer should engage the EPC contractor at an early stage to reduce the risk and costs. That’s how we can really accelerate hydrogen production.”

So there is always room for reducing the price, but you can only do that by engaging the EPC contractor.

“When it comes to the OEMs, we can help them as well by advising them on the right elements for their electrolysers or their products. These should be obtained locally or where they are readily available, to avoid unnecessary transportation costs and the risk of supply chain disruption.

“Some elements are by nature very expensive, so it is important to select a competitively priced element to keep the end product cost lower. In China an electrolyser based on alkaline technology can costs US430,000 per kilowatt, compared with US$1,400,000 per kilowatt in Europe. That’s a massive difference and will have a big impact on the project capex.

“The project developer needs to select the right geographic location for their development and ensure that it is near to its customers, to avoid unnecessary costs, such as those entailed by converting hydrogen to ammonia for transportation and cracking it back to hydrogen when it reaches its destination.

“So instead of complaining that governments are not giving incentives, or not paying premiums, EPCs should take it upon themselves to reduce the costs, then everyone will come to you and purchase from you. That is how we, as EPC contractors can guide our customers to enable them to accelerate hydrogen implementation, and we are involved in some early-stage projects where we are doing this.”

Supporting localisation

Mannesmann Energy is also supporting the UAE’s efforts to localise electrolyser manufacturing in the country. Aljuaidi comments that the UAE is one of the most advanced countries when it comes to enabling clean energy, with the ‘Make it in the Emirates’ programme offering incentives for local manufacture, thereby enabling companies to produce products at a competitive price (hydrogen is one of the priority sectors). The Emirates Development Bank also provides financial support for businesses in strategic sectors, including renewables. Progress has been encouraging, and Aljuaidi is optimistic about the future.

“A number of agreements were signed during the Make it in the Emirates Forum last year and this year,” Aljuaidi says. “It’s a new market, and it will take time for projects to get off the ground, but I am sure it will come.”