In The Spotlight
Oil 2024, the latest edition of the IEA’s annual medium-term market report, forecasts that growth in global demand for oil will slow in the coming years as energy transitions advance, with a major supply surplus emerging this decade
The report forecasts that global oil demand, which including biofuels averaged just over 102mn bpd in 2023, will level off near 106mn bpd per day towards the end of this decade, with growth in demand peaking before 2030.
Speaking at a press briefing, Dr Fatih Birol, IEA executive director, highlighted three major drivers of the slowdown:
1. – Transportation – The increasing penetration of electrical vehicles (EV)s. in China, Europe, USA and increasingly the emerging markets, currently accounting for more than one in five car sales. Dr Birol noted the increasing cost competitiveness of electrical cars in China, the driver of EV car penetration. Ongoing fuel efficiency improvements are also a factor;
2. – Electricity generation – Many of the oil producers in the Middle East and North Africa, who currently use a significant proportion of oil to generate electricity, are shifting to renewables or natural gas for electricity generation;
3. – China – Most importantly, the expected slowdown in China’s economic growth to around 4% from just over 6% a year, given the country has accounted for around 60% of demand growth in the last 10 years.
While strong demand growth is expected from fast-growing economies in Asia, as well as from the aviation and booming petrochemicals sectors, this will not be enough to offset the above factors.
Surge in production capacity
At the same time, a surge in non-OPEC global oil production capacity, led by the USA and other producers in the Americas, such as Argentina, Brazil, Canada and Guyana, is expected to outstrip demand growth between now and 2030, with non-OPEC producers expected to account for three quarters of the expected increase to 2030, or 4.6mn bpd. Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Iraq are expected to lead a 1.4 mn bpd rise in OPEC+ oil capacity.
Total supply capacity is forecast to rise by 6mn bpd to nearly 114mn bpd by 2030 – a staggering 8mn bpd above projected global demand, the report finds. There is also the prospect of OPEC+ rewinding production cuts from later this year. This would result in unprecedented levels of spare capacity over the forecast period, with major implications for oil markets – including for producer economies in OPEC and beyond, as well as for the US shale industry.
“Some producers are already making adjustments, with Saudi Arabia putting on hold planned oil capacity expansion to focus on gas, which is where we see the main demand this coming decade,” commented Toril Bosoni, the head of the IEA’s Oil Industry and Markets Division. at the press briefing.
“This report’s projections, based on the latest data, show a major supply surplus emerging this decade,” said Dr Birol, noting the consequences of an oversupply would be downward pressure on prices, with implications both for producers and consumers. “Oil companies may want to look at these supply and demand trends and make sure their business strategies and plans are in line with market realities,” he added.
According to the report, global refining capacity is on track to expand by 3.3mn bpd between 2023 and 2030, well below historical trends. However, this should be sufficient to meet demand for refined oil products during this period, given a concurrent surge in the supply of non-refined fuels such as biofuels and natural gas liquids (NGLs). This raises the prospect of refinery closures towards the end of the outlook period, as well as a slowdown in capacity growth in Asia after 2027.
![OPEC forecasts that global oil demand will grow by an average of 2.3 mn bpd, year-on-year in the second half of 2024. (Image source: Adobe Stock) Picture of an oil jack](/images/2024/june/Onshore_oil_jack_-_AdobeStock_181961238_1.webp#joomlaImage://local-images/2024/june/Onshore_oil_jack_-_AdobeStock_181961238_1.webp?width=787&height=399)
OPEC forecasts that global oil demand will grow by an average of 2.3 mn bpd, year-on-year in the second half of 2024. (Image source: Adobe Stock)
In an article on world oil market prospects for the second half of 2024, in its June monthly oil market report, OPEC forecasts that global oil demand will grow by an average of 2.3 mn bpd year-on-year in the second half of 2024, and by 2.2mn bpd for 2024 in total
OPEC notes that steady global economic growth has continued in the first half of 2024. Growth in non-OECD economies has held up quite well, and better than expected in the BRIC economies. If growth in major OECD economies accelerates in the second half of the year, with non-OECD economies maintaining the momentum of the first half of the year, economic growth for the year could potentially improve further. At present, OPEC’s global economic growth forecast stands at 2.8% for 2024 and 2.9% for 2025, unchanged from OPEC’s May assessment.
China the primary oil demand driver
Demand growth will be driven by non-OECD oil demand, forecast to grow on average by 2.1mn bpd, year-on-year, in the second half of 2024, with China expected to be the primary oil demand driver. The ongoing air travel recovery, healthy driving levels, as well as improvements in manufacturing sector activities are projected to support jet/kerosene, gasoline and distillate demand in the region.
In the OECD, oil demand is estimated to increase by 0.25mn bpd, year-on-year, in the second half of 2024, driven mainly by the USA. Jet kerosene and gasoline are anticipated to be the main regional oil demand drivers, on the back of the summer driving season and continued healthy air travel activity.
OPEC forecasts that in 2025, global oil demand will see see robust growth of 1.8mn bpd, year-on-year, again led by demand in the non-OECD region, which is forecast to increase by 1.7mn bpd.
In anticipation of the OPEC and IEA monthly reports and demand forecasts, and with hopes of increased summer demand, Brent crude has risen slightly to around US$81/bbl, following three weeks of losses related to the OPEC+ agreement to phase out some production cuts later this year.
bp and Worley are building on their longstanding collaboration with the formation of a new strategic alliance across bp's global site projects, including in the Middle East
The alliance is designed to maximise efficiency, continuous improvement and value creation. It will save an initial estimated US$40mn over two years in locations where Worley holds a services contract, ie Gulf of Mexico, Oman, Mauritania and Senegal oil and gas producing regions and the Cherry Point, Whiting, Rotterdam, Gelsenkirchen, and Lingen refineries.
Deepening collaboration
bp and Worley will deepen collaboration across a portfolio of site projects by leveraging digital capability and global scale to further drive efficiency across engineering, procurement, construction development and management.
“We remain focused on improving safety, reducing emissions, high value activity, and reducing cost. This alliance increases our operational effectiveness through centralisation, standardisation and simplification, helping us safely grow the value of bp,” said Niall Maguire, VP Site Projects, bp.
“This alliance builds on our successful partnership in the Site Projects Efficiency Plan (SPEP) over the past two years, where we’ve worked together to drive down costs across bp’s global operations. Our shared history and values position us well to identify and implement solutions as we continue to create value and deliver sustainable change throughout bp’s portfolio of projects,” said Mark Brantley, group president EMEA and APAC, Worley.
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![The panel addressed the role of gas in the energy transition. (Image source: AIEN International Energy Summit)](/images/2024/june/aienpanel.webp#joomlaImage://local-images/2024/june/aienpanel.webp?width=787&height=399)
The panel addressed the role of gas in the energy transition. (Image source: AIEN International Energy Summit)
A panel session at the AIEN International Energy Summit in Bangkok, Thailand, focused on the role of gas in the energy transition, looking at how natural gas, particularly LNG, impacts the security, affordability and sustainability of a robust energy future
Moderator Edward Taylor, partner, A&O Shearman asked the question, is natural gas still relevant to the energy evolution?
Andrew Kirk, vice president Origination, LNG, B Grimm said it will continue to play a big role. “The issue with renewables capacity and their intermittent nature means we will continue to need natural gas. New technologies such as batteries are still a long way off from being able to supply a full grid load. Renewables are also geographically bespoke and not available to all. They can provide solutions in areas with limited demand but the cost to run a city like Bangkok is so problematic. Many countries will not be able to cope with the cost increase of moving straight to renewables.”
Steve Morrell, senior vice president, ExxonMobil PNG LNG, agreed. “The conversation about gas has never been more pertinent. Whether we are talking about emissions, the war in Ukraine, or living standards around the world – gas has its part to play. There are also so many conversations about the rise of Artificial Intelligence. But where is the power coming from to feed these data centres that will play such a large part?"
Accelerating the energy transition
“Gas can accelerate the energy transition today. We can stop coal today. We can fill the gaps in intermittent renewables today. So, what is holding us back?”
“We are far enough along the energy transition to separate the aspirational and the unachievable,” said Kirk. “We are hearing these ideological positions where gas is considered unnecessary without having a sensible conversation about alternatives. Moving straight to renewables will create very unstable energy grids that will stifle economic growth.”
With the global population set to grow by 2bn by 2050, Morrell believes the responsibility will grow even higher on the energy companies to provide affordable, reliable and sustainable energy, and natural gas will play a large role in this.
“Gas is well understood and relatively cleaner compared with coal. The infrastructure is there and expanding. There is a lot to be said for the marriage between gas and intermittent renewables. Moving from a well-known system to new technology – it isn’t going to happen overnight. We could put more gas into the system. This will help see a 60% reduction in emissions if we replace coal, without even using new technologies.”
“One of the main problems is how to fill the gaps from renewables,” Kirk concluded. “The answer is gas. The stage is set for a reasoned conversation about gas.”
The latest Economic Insight report for the Middle East, commissioned by ICAEW and compiled by Oxford Economics, highlights the impact of extended oil production cuts on growth in the GCC region
The GCC growth forecast has been revised down to 2.2% from 2.7% three months ago, although non-energy sectors remain resilient, according to the report.
Due to the OPEC+ group’s extension of voluntary output cuts through Q3, GCC oil output will decline by 2.6% this year, according to the report. Saudi Arabia, which is bearing the brunt of production cuts, will see oil activities contract by 5% this year, down from a predicted growth of 0.7% three months ago. However, as voluntary production cuts are reversed in 2025, energy sectors will begin making positive contributions to GCC growth.
Qatar’s GDP growth for this year is forecast at 2.2% and is expected to rise to 2.9% in 2025, as a result of its North Field gas expansion project, which is not affected by OPEC+ production quotas. Bahrain’s GDP growth is 3.1% this year, but is expected to slow to 1.4% in 2025. The country continues to diversify its economy and reduce reliance on oil revenues.
Positive outlook for non-oil sectors
There is a positive outlook for non-energy sectors across the GCC, which will continue to grow. In Saudi Arabia, giga-projects are expected to boost investments in construction, manufacturing and transportation. Strong momentum in the sports and entertainment, hospitality and tourism sectors are expected given the Vision 2030 focus on these sectors. Tourism is a strategic sector in other countries too, and will remain a key growth driver. Tourism activity has rebounded strongly, with record visitor numbers across the GCC in 2023, extending into this year.
Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Kuwait are likely to record see budget deficits this year and in 2025 as the current oil price level is below the fiscal breakeven point, the report forecasts. However, the overall GCC budget position will likely remain in surplus, bolstered by strong financial standings and favourable credit ratings, allowing continued access to funding from capital markets and IPOs.
Hanadi Khalife, head of Middle East, ICAEW, said, “While geopolitical risks present headwinds for the GCC and wider Middle East, we are encouraged by the ongoing commitment to diversification and sustainability targets. Qatar, for example, became the first GCC sovereign to issue green bonds despite not having explicit net-zero targets. Bahrain is also aligning its non-oil economic growth with its Economic Vision 2030 and COP28 commitments to reduce carbon emissions by 30% by 2035.”
Scott Livermore, ICAEW economic advisor, and chief economist and managing director, Oxford Economics Middle East, added, “Although the region faces escalating pressures amid slowing global economies, the GCC remains relatively positive due to strong bilateral deals and investment.”
Honeywell has launched a new process to improve the efficiency and sustainability of light olefin production
The naphtha to ethane and propane (NEP) technology generates a tunable amount of ethane and propane from naphtha and/or LPG feedstocks, generating more high-value ethylene and propylene with reduced production of lower-value by-products compared to a traditional mixed-feed steam cracking unit and resulting in net cash margin increases. An NEP-based olefins complex also reduces CO2 intensity per metric ton of light olefins produced by 5 to 50% versus a traditional mixed-feed steam cracker.
More efficient production
“The petrochemical industry faces strong competition and challenges in obtaining raw materials globally,” said Matt Spalding, vice president and general manager of Honeywell Energy and Sustainability Solutions in MENA. “Our technology helps to enable more efficient production of ethylene and propylene, two chemicals which are in high demand, while also helping our customers lower their carbon emissions.”
The new solution is a part of Honeywell’s Integrated Olefin Suite technology portfolio to enhance the production of light olefins.
![Bandlock2 closures are now available in diameters in excess of 100 inches (254cm). (Image source: Celeros Flow) Man standing next to pipeline closure](/images/2024/june/Bandlock_2_Closure_GREY_with_Chap.webp#joomlaImage://local-images/2024/june/Bandlock_2_Closure_GREY_with_Chap.webp?width=787&height=399)
Bandlock2 closures are now available in diameters in excess of 100 inches (254cm). (Image source: Celeros Flow)
Celeros Flow Technology has up-scaled its Bandlock2 quick-opening closures so they can be incorporated on very large diameter pressure vessels and pipelines
The need for larger diameter closures is being driven by the fact that pipelines and pressure vessels are getting bigger, as a result of the growing global demand for essential products such as water, gas and oil. Available in diameters up to 100 inches (254cm), the larger diameter Bandlock2 closures offer customers the potential to reduce the number of pressure vessels and associated pipework required for any given application.
Same quick-opening mechanism
Manufactured by Celeros FT brand GD Engineering, very large diameter Bandlock2 closures offer the same proven quick-opening mechanism and sealing design as standard diameter closures. Full access is still achievable in less than a minute. They feature a unique, self-energising lip seal with integral anti-extrusion spring and offer full vacuum capability.
A hand-operated pressure warning screw assures safe operation. This is integrated into the closure mechanism and prevents the door from being unlocked until it is confirmed that the vessel’s internal pressure has been relieved. Additional secondary safety features, such as mechanical key interlocks, can be fitted and integrated with control valve operations. In addition, the locking band can be seen at all times, which satisfies design code requirements and means that the operator can actually see that the door is securely closed and locked.
More than 175 people, including senior representatives of the region's leading oil and gas companies, attended a very topical and engaging live webinar hosted by Oil Review Middle East entitled “Beyond Boundaries: Advanced Surveillance for Oil and Gas Remote Facilities”
![The overall pace of the transition has slowed, with economic volatility, heightened geopolitical tensions and technological shifts all having an impact. (Image source: Adobe Stock)](/images/2024/may/renewable_energy_for_new_website_-_AdobeStock_292330684.webp#joomlaImage://local-images/2024/may/renewable_energy_for_new_website_-_AdobeStock_292330684.webp?width=787&height=399)
The overall pace of the transition has slowed, with economic volatility, heightened geopolitical tensions and technological shifts all having an impact. (Image source: Adobe Stock)
The global energy transition to a more equitable, secure and sustainable energy has lost momentum in the face of increasing uncertainty worldwide, according to a new World Economic Forum report
While 107 of the 120 countries benchmarked in the report demonstrated progress on their energy transition journeys in the past decade, the overall pace of the transition has slowed, with economic volatility, heightened geopolitical tensions and technological shifts all having an impact. However, increasing global investments in renewables and significant growth in energy transition performance in sub-Saharan Africa over the past decade are positives.
Fostering Effective Energy Transition 2024, published in collaboration with Accenture, uses the Energy Transition Index (ETI) to benchmark 120 countries on the performance of their current energy systems, with a focus on balancing equity, environmental sustainability and energy security, and on their transition-readiness.
“We must ensure that the energy transition is equitable, in and across emerging and developed economies,” said Roberto Bocca, head of the Centre for Energy and Materials, World Economic Forum. “Transforming how we produce and consume energy is critical to success. We need to act on three key levers for the energy transition urgently: reforming the current energy system to reduce its emissions, deploying clean energy solutions at scale, and reducing energy intensity per unit of GDP.”
Europe leads the rankings
Europe continues to lead the ETI rankings, with the top 10 list for 2024 fully composed of countries from that region. Sweden comes top, followed by Denmark, Finland, Switzerland and France.These countries benefit from high political commitment, strong investments in research and development, expanded clean energy adoption – accelerated by the regional geopolitical situation, energy-efficiency policies and carbon pricing.
China and Brazil have advanced significantly in recent years, primarily driven by long-term efforts to increase the share of clean energy and enhance their grid reliability.
The gap in overall ETI scores has narrowed between advanced and developing economies, although clean energy investment continues to be concentrated in advanced economies and China. This underscores the need for financial support from advanced nations to facilitate an equitable energy transition in emerging and developing nations and forward-thinking policy-making in all nations to foster conducive investment conditions.
Over the past decade, the Middle East, Africa and Pakistan region has seen a 7% growth in its ETI score, which has stagnated in the last three years, according to the report, a significant barrier being the decline in finance and investment over this period. The region’s heavy reliance on oil revenues poses a challenge for a sustainable energy transition. Its regional score lags behind all regions except sub-Saharan Africa.
While the world remains off-track to meet net-zero ambitions by 2050 and limit global warming to no more than 1.5C, there has been notable progress in energy efficiency and an increase in the adoption of clean energy sources.
Innovation is a key enabling factor for the energy transition and can reduce costs, scale key technologies, renew and reskill the workforce and attract investments, the report stresses. Digital innovations, including generative AI, offer significant opportunities to reinvent the energy industry by enhancing productivity. Generative AI's ability to analyse vast quantities of data can provide innovative forecasts and solutions, or streamline existing operations to increase efficiencies, among other benefits. However, it will be crucial to responsibly and equitably address the risks and challenges posed by these technologies.
“C-suites consistently tell us a clear business case is a prerequisite for attracting investments in the energy transition, especially in the face of higher interest rates and the emerging talent shortage," said Muqsit Ashraf, group chief executive, Accenture Strategy. "We believe that a strong digital core, enabled by generative AI, can boost productivity, enhancing returns and talent availability and unlocking a new wave of investments.”