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The panel addressed the role of gas in the energy transition. (Image source: AIEN International Energy Summit)

Exploration & Production

A panel session at the AIEN International Energy Summit in Bangkok, Thailand, focused on the role of gas in the energy transition, looking at how natural gas, particularly LNG, impacts the security, affordability and sustainability of a robust energy future

Moderator Edward Taylor, partner, A&O Shearman asked the question, is natural gas still relevant to the energy evolution?

Andrew Kirk, vice president Origination, LNG, B Grimm said it will continue to play a big role. “The issue with renewables capacity and their intermittent nature means we will continue to need natural gas. New technologies such as batteries are still a long way off from being able to supply a full grid load. Renewables are also geographically bespoke and not available to all. They can provide solutions in areas with limited demand but the cost to run a city like Bangkok is so problematic. Many countries will not be able to cope with the cost increase of moving straight to renewables.”

Steve Morrell, senior vice president, ExxonMobil PNG LNG, agreed. “The conversation about gas has never been more pertinent. Whether we are talking about emissions, the war in Ukraine, or living standards around the world – gas has its part to play. There are also so many conversations about the rise of Artificial Intelligence. But where is the power coming from to feed these data centres that will play such a large part?"

Accelerating the energy transition

“Gas can accelerate the energy transition today. We can stop coal today. We can fill the gaps in intermittent renewables today. So, what is holding us back?”

“We are far enough along the energy transition to separate the aspirational and the unachievable,” said Kirk. “We are hearing these ideological positions where gas is considered unnecessary without having a sensible conversation about alternatives. Moving straight to renewables will create very unstable energy grids that will stifle economic growth.”

With the global population set to grow by 2bn by 2050, Morrell believes the responsibility will grow even higher on the energy companies to provide affordable, reliable and sustainable energy, and natural gas will play a large role in this.

“Gas is well understood and relatively cleaner compared with coal. The infrastructure is there and expanding. There is a lot to be said for the marriage between gas and intermittent renewables. Moving from a well-known system to new technology – it isn’t going to happen overnight. We could put more gas into the system. This will help see a 60% reduction in emissions if we replace coal, without even using new technologies.”

“One of the main problems is how to fill the gaps from renewables,” Kirk concluded. “The answer is gas. The stage is set for a reasoned conversation about gas.”

Hanadi Khalife, head of Middle East, ICAEW. (Image source: ICAEW)

Industry

The latest Economic Insight report for the Middle East, commissioned by ICAEW and compiled by Oxford Economics, highlights the impact of extended oil production cuts on growth in the GCC region

The GCC growth forecast has been revised down to 2.2% from 2.7% three months ago, although non-energy sectors remain resilient, according to the report.

Due to the OPEC+ group’s extension of voluntary output cuts through Q3, GCC oil output will decline by 2.6% this year, according to the report. Saudi Arabia, which is bearing the brunt of production cuts, will see oil activities contract by 5% this year, down from a predicted growth of 0.7% three months ago. However, as voluntary production cuts are reversed in 2025, energy sectors will begin making positive contributions to GCC growth.

Qatar’s GDP growth for this year is forecast at 2.2% and is expected to rise to 2.9% in 2025, as a result of its North Field gas expansion project, which is not affected by OPEC+ production quotas. Bahrain’s GDP growth is 3.1% this year, but is expected to slow to 1.4% in 2025. The country continues to diversify its economy and reduce reliance on oil revenues.

Positive outlook for non-oil sectors 

There is a positive outlook for non-energy sectors across the GCC, which will continue to grow. In Saudi Arabia, giga-projects are expected to boost investments in construction, manufacturing and transportation. Strong momentum in the sports and entertainment, hospitality and tourism sectors are expected given the Vision 2030 focus on these sectors. Tourism is a strategic sector in other countries too, and will remain a key growth driver. Tourism activity has rebounded strongly, with record visitor numbers across the GCC in 2023, extending into this year.

Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Kuwait are likely to record see budget deficits this year and in 2025 as the current oil price level is below the fiscal breakeven point, the report forecasts. However, the overall GCC budget position will likely remain in surplus, bolstered by strong financial standings and favourable credit ratings, allowing continued access to funding from capital markets and IPOs.

Hanadi Khalife, head of Middle East, ICAEW, said, “While geopolitical risks present headwinds for the GCC and wider Middle East, we are encouraged by the ongoing commitment to diversification and sustainability targets. Qatar, for example, became the first GCC sovereign to issue green bonds despite not having explicit net-zero targets. Bahrain is also aligning its non-oil economic growth with its Economic Vision 2030 and COP28 commitments to reduce carbon emissions by 30% by 2035.”

Scott Livermore, ICAEW economic advisor, and chief economist and managing director, Oxford Economics Middle East, added, “Although the region faces escalating pressures amid slowing global economies, the GCC remains relatively positive due to strong bilateral deals and investment.”

The new process will improve efficiency and reduce carbon footprint. (Image source: Honeywell)

Petrochemicals

Honeywell has launched a new process to improve the efficiency and sustainability of light olefin production

The naphtha to ethane and propane (NEP) technology generates a tunable amount of ethane and propane from naphtha and/or LPG feedstocks, generating more high-value ethylene and propylene with reduced production of lower-value by-products compared to a traditional mixed-feed steam cracking unit and resulting in net cash margin increases. An NEP-based olefins complex also reduces CO2 intensity per metric ton of light olefins produced by 5 to 50% versus a traditional mixed-feed steam cracker.

More efficient production

“The petrochemical industry faces strong competition and challenges in obtaining raw materials globally,” said Matt Spalding, vice president and general manager of Honeywell Energy and Sustainability Solutions in MENA. “Our technology helps to enable more efficient production of ethylene and propylene, two chemicals which are in high demand, while also helping our customers lower their carbon emissions.”

The new solution is a part of Honeywell’s Integrated Olefin Suite technology portfolio to enhance the production of light olefins.

Bandlock2 closures are now available in diameters in excess of 100 inches (254cm). (Image source: Celeros Flow)

Technology

Celeros Flow Technology has up-scaled its Bandlock2 quick-opening closures so they can be incorporated on very large diameter pressure vessels and pipelines

The need for larger diameter closures is being driven by the fact that pipelines and pressure vessels are getting bigger, as a result of the growing global demand for essential products such as water, gas and oil. Available in diameters up to 100 inches (254cm), the larger diameter Bandlock2 closures offer customers the potential to reduce the number of pressure vessels and associated pipework required for any given application.

Same quick-opening mechanism

Manufactured by Celeros FT brand GD Engineering, very large diameter Bandlock2 closures offer the same proven quick-opening mechanism and sealing design as standard diameter closures. Full access is still achievable in less than a minute. They feature a unique, self-energising lip seal with integral anti-extrusion spring and offer full vacuum capability.

A hand-operated pressure warning screw assures safe operation. This is integrated into the closure mechanism and prevents the door from being unlocked until it is confirmed that the vessel’s internal pressure has been relieved. Additional secondary safety features, such as mechanical key interlocks, can be fitted and integrated with control valve operations. In addition, the locking band can be seen at all times, which satisfies design code requirements and means that the operator can actually see that the door is securely closed and locked.

More than 175 people, including senior representatives of the region's leading oil and gas companies, attended a very topical and engaging live webinar hosted by Oil Review Middle East entitled “Beyond Boundaries: Advanced Surveillance for Oil and Gas Remote Facilities”

The overall pace of the transition has slowed, with economic volatility, heightened geopolitical tensions and technological shifts all having an impact. (Image source: Adobe Stock)

Energy Transition

The global energy transition to a more equitable, secure and sustainable energy has lost momentum in the face of increasing uncertainty worldwide, according to a new World Economic Forum report

While 107 of the 120 countries benchmarked in the report demonstrated progress on their energy transition journeys in the past decade, the overall pace of the transition has slowed, with economic volatility, heightened geopolitical tensions and technological shifts all having an impact. However, increasing global investments in renewables and significant growth in energy transition performance in sub-Saharan Africa over the past decade are positives.

Fostering Effective Energy Transition 2024, published in collaboration with Accenture, uses the Energy Transition Index (ETI) to benchmark 120 countries on the performance of their current energy systems, with a focus on balancing equity, environmental sustainability and energy security, and on their transition-readiness.

“We must ensure that the energy transition is equitable, in and across emerging and developed economies,” said Roberto Bocca, head of the Centre for Energy and Materials, World Economic Forum. “Transforming how we produce and consume energy is critical to success. We need to act on three key levers for the energy transition urgently: reforming the current energy system to reduce its emissions, deploying clean energy solutions at scale, and reducing energy intensity per unit of GDP.”

Europe leads the rankings

Europe continues to lead the ETI rankings, with the top 10 list for 2024 fully composed of countries from that region. Sweden comes top, followed by Denmark, Finland, Switzerland and France.These countries benefit from high political commitment, strong investments in research and development, expanded clean energy adoption – accelerated by the regional geopolitical situation, energy-efficiency policies and carbon pricing.
China and Brazil have advanced significantly in recent years, primarily driven by long-term efforts to increase the share of clean energy and enhance their grid reliability.

The gap in overall ETI scores has narrowed between advanced and developing economies, although clean energy investment continues to be concentrated in advanced economies and China. This underscores the need for financial support from advanced nations to facilitate an equitable energy transition in emerging and developing nations and forward-thinking policy-making in all nations to foster conducive investment conditions.

Over the past decade, the Middle East, Africa and Pakistan region has seen a 7% growth in its ETI score, which has stagnated in the last three years, according to the report, a significant barrier being the decline in finance and investment over this period. The region’s heavy reliance on oil revenues poses a challenge for a sustainable energy transition. Its regional score lags behind all regions except sub-Saharan Africa.

While the world remains off-track to meet net-zero ambitions by 2050 and limit global warming to no more than 1.5C, there has been notable progress in energy efficiency and an increase in the adoption of clean energy sources.

Innovation is a key enabling factor for the energy transition and can reduce costs, scale key technologies, renew and reskill the workforce and attract investments, the report stresses. Digital innovations, including generative AI, offer significant opportunities to reinvent the energy industry by enhancing productivity. Generative AI's ability to analyse vast quantities of data can provide innovative forecasts and solutions, or streamline existing operations to increase efficiencies, among other benefits. However, it will be crucial to responsibly and equitably address the risks and challenges posed by these technologies.

“C-suites consistently tell us a clear business case is a prerequisite for attracting investments in the energy transition, especially in the face of higher interest rates and the emerging talent shortage," said Muqsit Ashraf, group chief executive, Accenture Strategy. "We believe that a strong digital core, enabled by generative AI, can boost productivity, enhancing returns and talent availability and unlocking a new wave of investments.”

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