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OPEC+ improves compliance with production cuts


OPEC+ production in June was only marginally above its target, according to research from Rystad Energy

OPEC+ production exceeded its target by just 53,000 bpd – its lowest level since the start of the year.

Undercompliance with production cuts by the OPEC+ group hit its highest level in April 2024 since April 2021 (399,000 bpd). Since then, compliance has been rapidly improving.

In May, the group overproduced by 176,000 bpd, while in June, overproduction was just 53,000 bpd. Production in June averaged 33.903mn bpd, while the target was 33.85mn bpd.

Increased overall compliance

The increased overall compliance due to the fact that compliance among the eight voluntary cutters – Oman, Kuwait, the UAE, Algeria, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq and Kazakhstan – has improved since April. This comes from lower overproduction in Kazakhstan (151,000 bpd in April down to 80,000 bpd in June), Iraq (310,000 bpd in April down to 236,000 bpd in June), Russia (253,000 bpd in April down to 176,000 bpd in June) and Saudi Arabia (82,000 bpd in April down to 6,000 bpd in June). While the UAE underproduced in June by 55,000 bpd.

The rest of the OPEC+ countries – Sudan, South Sudan, Nigeria, Gabon, Equatorial Guinea, Congo-Brazzaville, Bahrain, Azerbaijan, Brunei and Malaysia – continue to overcomply with the official cuts. 

Senior vice president Oil Market Research, Jorge León, commented, “The recent improvement in compliance levels with the OPEC+ cuts shows strong commitment and cohesion inside the group. It also shows that the compensation mechanism put into place is working. I expect to see strong compliance continuing in the coming months.”