Tension continues to mount in the Gulf over the seizure of a British oil tanker by Iran and Prime Minister Theresa May is set to chair a meeting of Cobra to address the crisis
The situation has the potential to evolve quickly, and consequences may range far beyond international relations and into the business world.
Richard Phelps, senior director of business intelligence and investigations at global investigations firm Kroll, commented, “The Gulf region is no stranger to maritime risks resulting from geopolitical factors, and historically the threat level has oscillated over the years. The past two months though have witnessed a major escalation in the threat level, and it is civilian commercial vessels that have particularly borne the brunt of this threat. Whilst strategic positioning between the different regional and international powers has further amplified state-on-state tensions, in practical terms, the impact of such geopolitical escalation has primarily been manifested in the form of damage and risks to commercial assets and their civilian employees.”
“In an environment of increased volatility, each new incident has the potential to trigger a spiralling of response and counter-response. An upward cycle of escalation and posturing could create a scenario from which the regional and international participants find it difficult to climb down.”
“Explosive mines, for instance, that are deployed with the intention of disabling or causing minor damage to a commercial vessel in order to increase regional pressure, could result in loss of life or major environmental damage. Unintended outcomes in a febrile theatre can rapidly develop an escalator and destructive dynamic of their own.”
“These incidents and events are being played out publicly and in real-time, so although companies with operational exposure to the area cannot control the situation they can still be active in preparing and positioning themselves. This should include live monitoring of the evolving situation, developing tailored crisis management plans and contingency protocols that are relevant to their assets and employees, and preparing them for making appropriate decisions should they need to.”
