According to Frost & Sullivan, the approaching end to the Libyan struggle for change is unlikely to result in sustained peace with forces loyal to the old regime still remaining active.
Hence, the subsequent government granted international mandate will take time to exercise power and effort to resume significant Libyan oil exports (similar to what the world has seen in post war Iraq).
Also, the main parties in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) led war would want to get duly compensated through the highly attractive Libyan oil sector due to its low cost of oil production (as low as US$1 per barrel at some fields) and proximity to European markets.
Given these conditions, it is unlikely that Libya’s post war crude production of 1.5 million barrels a day accounting to two per cent of the world demand (present output at 180,000-200,000 barrels a day) will come back online before the end of 2012.
