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Declines in output from existing oil and gas fields globally have accelerated – largely due to a higher reliance on shale and deep offshore resources – but are lower in the Middle East than other parts of the world, according to a new report from the IEA

The new report, 'The Implications of Oil and Gas Field Decline Rates', draws on production data from around 15,000 oil and gas fields from around the world, and highlights the wide variation in decline rates across field types and geographies, with production from larger fields declining more slowly than from smaller fields, and offshore fields declining more quickly than onshore fields. The declines rates for the Middle East and Russia, which are home to the majority of conventional onshore supergiant fields, are therefore much lower than those elsewhere. This could mean that oil production from existing fields would become more concentrated among the OPEC member countries and Russia, who could see their share of global oil production rise from 43% today to 53% in 2035 and more than 65% in 2050, according to the IEA.

In Saudi Arabia and the UAE, where major upstream expansion projects are underway, production growth from approved projects, along with existing spare capacity and continued investment in existing projects, can more than offset the loss of production from natural declines, especially as decline rates are relatively low in both countries.

Onshore supergiant oil fields in the Middle East decline at less than 2% per year, while smaller offshore fields in Europe average more than 15% per year, according to the report. Tight oil and shale gas decline even more steeply: without investment, output falls by more than 35% over one year and a further 15% over a second year. The Middle East has the lowest oil post-peak decline rate at 1.8%, compared with global average annual post-peak decline rate of 5.6% for conventional oil and 6.8% for conventional natural gas.

IEA executive director Fatih Birol noted that nearly 90% of upstream investment annually is dedicated to offsetting losses of supply at existing fields. “Decline rates are the elephant in the room for any discussion of investment needs in oil and gas, and our new analysis shows that they have accelerated in recent years. In the case of oil, an absence of upstream investment would remove the equivalent of Brazil and Norway’s combined production each year from the global market balance. The situation means that the industry has to run much faster just to stand still. And careful attention needs to be paid to the potential consequences for market balances, energy security and emissions.”

The development of new resources would therefore be need to keep up the level of global oil and gas production. Even with continued spending on existing fields, more than 45mn bpd of oil and nearly 2,000 bcm of gas from new conventional fields would be required by 2050 to maintain production at today’s levels, according to the IEA.

The report also highlights that it has taken almost 20 years on average to move from issuing an exploration licence for oil and gas until first production. Around 230 billion barrels of oil and 40 trillion cubic metres (tcm) of gas resources have been discovered that have yet to be approved for development, mainly in the Middle East, Eurasia, and Africa. Developing these resources could add around 28 mn bpd and 1,300 bcm by 2050, the IEA says.

Sercel has supplied a new set of high-performance land seismic acquisition and source solutions to a major North African geophysical contractor, boosting its ability to conduct large-scale 3D surveys in complex terrain

As part of the contract, Sercel supplied 75,000 DSU1-508 digital sensors, increasing the contractor’s total installed base to more than 350,000, along with 24 new Nomad 90 Neo broadband vibrators to equip an additional land seismic crew.

To optimise survey performance, Sercel has also provided the contractor with its Nomad Connect Asset Optimization service, providing real-time insights into fleet performance and a complete overview of vibrator configurations, as well as the Vibrator Auto-Guidance functionality which enhances operational accuracy and productivity in the field.

These additional features, combined with the unique DSU1-508 single-sensor design and high-performance MEMS technology, ensure that the contractor is equipped with the most advanced broadband seismic acquisition solutions available to deliver the highest-quality seismic data in challenging environments.

Jérôme Denigot, CEO of Sercel, said, “We are pleased to continue building on our long-standing collaboration with this major North African customer. From project planning to delivery and field support, our team remains committed to providing the most advanced geophysical technology and services available. This latest milestone confirms Sercel’s position as the preferred technology partner for complex, large-scale seismic acquisition projects and highlights the growing demand for field-proven solutions that meet the evolving challenges of onshore exploration in North Africa and beyond.”

The Middle East and Asia are driving global refining growth, according to new research from Rystad Energy

Middle Eastern refiners have expanded their refining capacity in the last 20 years from nearly 8mn bpd to around 13mn bpd, with major additions concentrated in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, as the region focuses on adding value through downstream integration. This includes the development of complex, large-scale refineries designed not only to serve growing domestic demand but also to supply refined products to key export markets across the globe. Saudi Aramco for example has invested heavily in expanding its refining footprint, developing advanced complexes such as Jazan and forming joint ventures including YASREF and SATORP.

China has nearly doubled its refining capacity over the past two decades, from 10.6mn bpd in 2005 to 18.8mn bpd in 2025, to meet rising domestic demand and improve energy security, while also positioning the country as a key exporter of refined products. India’s refining capacity has grown from 2.9 million bpd in 2005 to around 5.2mn bpd this year, for similar reasons, including strong domestic consumption and strategic investments in refining infrastructure.

“The Middle East and Asia are driving global refining growth by focusing on large, integrated mega-refineries that secure energy supplies and meet rapidly rising demand. In contrast, Europe and the US are retreating, with older, less efficient plants closing due to high costs and uncertainty over future fuel needs. This shift has sparked a wave of rationalisation, where smaller, less flexible refineries are being shut down while bigger, more adaptable facilities gain ground through economies of scale. Today, nearly all new projects are larger and more economically viable, so even though the total number of refineries worldwide has declined, overall refining capacity continues to grow significantly,” said Arne Skjaeveland, vice president, Oil & Gas Research, Rystad Energy.

Rystad Energy’s research shows that in the last two decades, global primary refining capacity has increased by about 13.5 million barrels per day (bpd), or roughly 15%, while the number of refineries has been in decline since 2011 driven by ageing infrastructure, shrinking profit margins and weakening fuel demand as electrification advances.

As for emissions, emissions intensity across the sector has held relatively steady overall. Asia, followed by the Middle East, has seen total refinery emissions surge, driven by rapid growth in capacity and throughput. The newer, highly complex refineries in Asia and the Middle East tend to consume more energy but often achieve greater carbon efficiency per barrel thanks to modern technologies and tighter integration. Meanwhle, emissions in North America and Europe have remained flat or declined, largely as a result of retrofits and refinery closures rather than gains in carbon efficiency.

Cloudera, the company bringing AI to data anywhere, has announced plans to establish an office in Saudi Arabia in early 2026, underlining its commitment to the Kingdom and its support for Vision 2030 plans for accelerated digital transformation

Cloudera has supported customers in KSA for more than six years, across all major industries, including Telco, Banking & Financial Services, Oil & Gas, and Government. By establishing a local legal entity, the company will be better able to support national priorities in data rules, innovation, and skills training. In light of Saudi cloud and data regulations, establishing a local legal entity also supports compliance obligations.

Cloudera in Arabia will support the country’s strategic priorities around data sovereignty, regulatory compliance, and digital acceleration, while enabling scalable, enterprise-grade AI initiatives across diverse operating environments.

Cloudera provides a unified, open-source foundation that gives 100% access to 100% of the data, regardless of where it resides. For Saudi Arabia’s highly regulated sectors, such as oil and gas, finance, health, and government, Cloudera’s platform supports strict governance, traceability, and compliance in GovCloud, Sovereign Cloud, and air-gapped data centers. This ensures real-time reasoning and predictive insights without compromising control or security.

By leaning on a robust open-source ecosystem and decades of innovation, Cloudera enables Saudi organizations to assert control over data, workloads, deployments and spend. This reduces vendor lock-in, accelerates innovation cycles, and aligns with national digitisation goals.

Ahmad Issa, regional vice president, Cloudera, said, “Customers want trusted partners on the ground who understand how the rules work in practice. This announcement solidifies our relationships, helps build stronger partnerships, and creates opportunities to train and hire local talent so Cloudera Arabia can grow alongside the Kingdom’s transformation.

“Saudi Arabia is investing heavily in building one of the most ambitious digital economies anywhere. By creating a local entity, we are making clear our commitment to the Kingdom’s long-term goals. Customers can rely on our hybrid platform to keep their data where it belongs, meet compliance requirements, and still unlock the full benefits of AI at scale.”

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• Andy Shartzer, Technical Evangelist, Pelco
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The session will be moderated by Louise Waters, Editor, Oil Review Middle East.

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Fadi Al-Shihabi, sustainability solutions lead, KPMG Middle East, discusses how decarbonisation is transforming the lubricant oil industry and accelerating the Middle East’s journey to net zero

The lubricant (lube) oil sector is under growing pressure to minimise its environmental footprint as industries worldwide confront the realities of climate change. A rapidly growing industry in the UAE, it is currently estimated at 166.27mn litres, and is expected to reach a staggering 202.68mn litres by 2030. In the Middle East, where the current lubricant market is estimated at 2.94 billion litres and expected to reach 3.31bn litres by 2030, similar trends are evident in Saudi Arabia, Oman, and Qatar.

From the automotive industry to power generation, the lubricant oil sector is a widely growing area. It plays a critical role in keeping engines, machinery, and industrial systems operating efficiently, but its traditional production, packaging, and end-of-life management contribute significantly to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), oil and gas operations, including extraction, processing, and refining, account for approximately 5.1 Gt CO2e annually, or about 15% of global energy sector emissions. To remain on track for net-zero by 2050, these emissions must fall by over 60% by 2030.

The UAE has set itself enormous emissions targets – the UAE Net Zero by 2050 strategic initiative aims to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050 – with stakeholders in key sectors, including energy, implementing projects to decarbonise in line with their needs and growth requirements. Saudi Arabia’s Circular Carbon Economy framework and Oman’s Net Zero 2050 pledge echo similar decarbonisation ambitions.

The deployment and use of clean energy solutions is one of the UAE’s main pillars to address climate change and reduce GHG emissions. The country began financing clean energy projects more than 15 years ago and has invested over US$40bn in the sector to date. The Middle East region as a whole is set to receive over US$75bn in investments for renewable energy projects by 2030, according to a report released by the Energy Industries Council (EIC). Ahead of the COP28 summit in the UAE in 2023, more than 60 top executives from the oil and gas, cement, aluminium and other heavy industries agreed to cut their emissions to meet their climate obligations.

Within the lubricants sector, electrifying process heat, cutting methane leaks, and using low-emissions hydrogen, particularly in energy-intensive refining steps like hydrotreating and hydroisomerisation, are vital for efficiency improvements. These innovations are critical as it is estimated that a single liter of lubricant can generate over 3.5 kg CO₂e. Refineries across the GCC are piloting hydrogen and CCUS technologies to curb emissions in lubricant production.

Innovation powering the lubricants industry

The journey of lube oil begins with crude oil extraction, followed by vacuum distillation to separate heavier fractions suitable for base oil production. These base oils undergo further refining processes such as hydrotreating, hydroisomerisation, dewaxing and other processes, enhancing their viscosity, stability, and longevity.

Recent innovations in catalyst technology and feedstock selection are driving both product quality improvements and emissions reduction. Producers are also blending biomass-derived feedstocks with conventional inputs to create lower-carbon base oils. These bio-based oils perform similarly to fossil-based ones but have less carbon footprint and can be processed using existing infrastructure. Scientists are also exploring entirely renewable base oils.

However, innovation doesn’t stop at production. Digital monitoring tools help reduce lubricant waste during use. For example, Finnish company Lassila & Tikanoja installed real-time oil monitoring across its hydraulic systems and reduced oil use by 13,400 litres over four years, saving around 10 tonnes of CO₂e annually. They also cut lubricant-related emissions by up to 80% through smarter maintenance without affecting performance.

Packaging and handling

When it comes to packaging, manufacturers are increasingly optimising designs by reducing material use and enhancing handling and distribution. While traditional rigid plastics and metals have historically provided the necessary protection, they also present significant challenges in terms of disposal and GHG emissions.

Consequently, the lubricant industry is undergoing a transition toward low-carbon packaging alternatives that can maintain safety and performance while addressing environmental concerns. Lightweighting and design optimisation reduce raw material demand, shipping weight, and CO2 emissions per litre delivered, without compromising safety or performance.

TotalEnergies has been at the forefront with the integration of 50% post-consumer recycled (PCR) HDPE in its premium lube oil bottles, launched in France and Belgium since September 2023. These bottles retain the same weight, design, and performance while significantly reducing the carbon footprint.

Lowering cradle-to-grave emissions

Beyond production and packaging, extending lubricant life is key to decarbonisation. Modern additives have enabled lubricant change intervals to increase from 5,000 km in legacy vehicles to upwards of 30,000 km in modern engines.

Bio-based or biomass-balanced additives further support environmental goals by reducing the emissions linked to additive manufacture and enhancing overall oil performance. The result is less frequent oil manufacture, transport, and disposal.

As the UAE accelerates its journey towards decarbonisation, these steps will be crucial in ensuring the responsible end-of-life management of lube oils. Technological advancements and environmentally friendly formulations will create new growth avenues and set a new benchmark in the UAE’s industrial revolution. As neighbouring countries pursue similar ambitions, regional collaboration in innovation and policy will be key to transforming the Middle East lubricant landscape.