Mohanad Yakout, senior markets analyst at Scope Markets. (Image source: Scope Markets)

The oil market landscape for Q4 2025 is looking highly volatile, with rising oil exports from Iraq exacerbating oversupply concerns, says Mohanad Yakout, senior markets analyst at Scope Markets

Oil prices are hovering around US$67 as the IEA warns of a ‘looming oversupply’ outweighing geopolitical tensions in Russia and the Middle East.

Adding to pressures including the unwinding of OPEC + production cuts and higher non-OPEC production is the prospect of rising oil exports from Iraq, OPEC’s second-largest producer. The country has increased oil exports under the OPEC+ agreement, according to state oil marketing organisation SOMO, as reported by Reuters. It expects September's exports to range from 3.4-3.45 mn bpd, up from around 3.38mn bpd in August.

Baghdad is also reported to have come to a preliminary agreement with the Kurdistan region to resume pipeline oil exports from the Kurdistan region through Turkey, amounting to around 230,000 bpd, after a two-year hiatus.

“This shift comes as part of Iraq’s broader effort to boost production after a relaxation of some commitments under the OPEC+ agreement and to strengthen the country’s financial revenue,” comments Yakout.

“However, despite the clear benefits of this move in terms of revenue generation and improved financial liquidity, multiple risks loom over the global oil market as the end of 2025 approaches. First, there's the risk of oversupply, especially if the Kurdistan pipeline returns to full capacity without alignment with global demand, which is expected to remain relatively weak due to global economic conditions and the accelerating shift toward renewable energy and electric vehicles.

“Second, there are logistical, legal, and political risks related to the ongoing dispute between Baghdad and Erbil over export contracts, revenue sharing, or obligations to foreign companies. Any delays or sudden stoppages could disrupt pipeline flows and undermine investor and market confidence.

“Third, price volatility remains a major concern. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East or the imposition of sanctions on supplies from countries like Russia could trigger sharp market swings, especially if news is conflicting or if the implementation of agreements faces obstacles.”

Yakout concludes that the oil landscape for Q4 2025 looks highly volatile.

“While the increase in exports offers an opportunity to bolster Iraq’s financial position and improve revenues, the success of this strategy depends on legal and political stability, infrastructure reliability, alignment with global supply and demand, and effective risk management. If these factors are handled properly, Iraq stands to gain significantly, but if markets are caught off guard by any serious disruptions, prices could fall, and market tensions may rise.”

he contractor now operates a fleet of 64 units, enhancing its capacity for high-resolution land seismic acquisition in complex terrain. (Image source: Sercel)

Sercel has supplied a new set of high-performance land seismic acquisition and source solutions to a major North African geophysical contractor, boosting its ability to conduct large-scale 3D surveys in complex terrain

As part of the contract, Sercel supplied 75,000 DSU1-508 digital sensors, increasing the contractor’s total installed base to more than 350,000, along with 24 new Nomad 90 Neo broadband vibrators to equip an additional land seismic crew.

To optimise survey performance, Sercel has also provided the contractor with its Nomad Connect Asset Optimization service, providing real-time insights into fleet performance and a complete overview of vibrator configurations, as well as the Vibrator Auto-Guidance functionality which enhances operational accuracy and productivity in the field.

These additional features, combined with the unique DSU1-508 single-sensor design and high-performance MEMS technology, ensure that the contractor is equipped with the most advanced broadband seismic acquisition solutions available to deliver the highest-quality seismic data in challenging environments.

Jérôme Denigot, CEO of Sercel, said, “We are pleased to continue building on our long-standing collaboration with this major North African customer. From project planning to delivery and field support, our team remains committed to providing the most advanced geophysical technology and services available. This latest milestone confirms Sercel’s position as the preferred technology partner for complex, large-scale seismic acquisition projects and highlights the growing demand for field-proven solutions that meet the evolving challenges of onshore exploration in North Africa and beyond.”

Daniel Burbridge, general manager for the Middle East at Osso. (image source: Osso)

OSSO, the specialist provider of fluid temperature control and separation solutions, has introduced a new service line providing maintenance and support for Plate Heat Exchanger (PHE) equipment for the UAE and wider Middle East

From its Abu Dhabi headquarters, OSSO will provide an end-to-end offering including inspection, chemical cleaning, pressure testing and recertification for all PHE models along with the supply of both OEM and non-OEM PHEs parts. The service also includes non-destructive thermographic imaging for early fault detection and maintenance. OSSO provides full workshop servicing and onsite maintenance to ensure continued reliability and performance.

This latest launch builds on OSSO’s expansion in the region. The company established its dedicated UAE entity in late 2024, headquartered in Abu Dhabi, and expanded its existing floorspace to accommodate growing operations. It has expanded its regional workforce, with further investment and recruitment planned.

Daniel Burbridge, general manager for the Middle East, said, “Since opening our regional entity, we’ve had numerous conversations with customers highlighting strong demand for specialist PHE servicing. PHEs are critical across many sectors, but their reliability can mean they don’t get the same regular attention as other assets. This was a logical next step for us in the Middle East, drawing on our existing expertise to deliver comprehensive support from Abu Dhabi and help customers keep equipment performing at its best while avoiding unexpected shutdowns.”

James Scullion, CEO of OSSO, added, “This is a region with huge potential and opportunity across many sectors. We’re always exploring ways to expand our capabilities here, and launching PHE servicing from Abu Dhabi is a clear progression. It builds on the strength of our local team and the success we’ve already seen since establishing our entity last year. This is a market where we see strong growth ahead, and we’re excited about what the future holds as we continue to invest.”

The GGIP involves four elements

TotalEnergies has announced the start of the construction of the final two components of Iraq’s Gas Growth Integrated Project (GGIP) which it is operating alongside its partners Basra Oil Company and QatarEnergy

The 4-in-1 project comprises the recovery of gas that is currently flared at three oil fields in southern Iraq to supply electric power plants, the redevelopment of the Ratawi oil field, the construction of a 1 GWac (1.25GWp) solar farm and a seawater treatment plant. With total investment exceeding US$13bn, it aims to sustainably develop Iraq’s natural resources to improve the country’s electricity supply while contributing to its energy independence and reducing its greenhouse gas emissions. Following the start of construction of the 300 Mcf/d gas treatment plant and the 1 GWac solar facility at the beginning of this year, all parts of the multi-energy GGIP project are now in their execution phase.

Patrick Pouyanné, chairman and CEO of TotalEnergies, and His Excellency Saad Sherida Al-Kaabi, Qatari Minister of State for Energy Affairs, deputy chairman and CEO of QatarEnergy, met on 14 September in Baghdad with His Excellency Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, Prime Minister of the Republic of Iraq, and His Excellency Hayan Abulghani, Minister of Oil and Deputy Prime Minister, to announce the start of construction of the Common Seawater Supply Project (CSSP) and the full field development of the Ratawi oil field.

The CSSP will be built on the coast near the town of Um Qasr. It will process and transport 5 million barrels of seawater per day to the main oilfields in southern Iraq, thereby freeing up to 250,000 cubic meters of freshwater per day for irrigation and local agriculture needs. The plant will be operated by Basra Oil Company.

The Ratawi redevelopment was launched in September 2023. Phase 1 aims to increase production to 120,000 bpd and is expected to come on stream by early 2026. Phase 2 (full field development) will increase production to 210,000 bpd starting in 2028, with no routine flaring.

All 160 Mcf/d of associated gas will be fully processed thanks to the 300 Mcf/d Gas Midstream Project (GMP), whose construction began early 2025. The GMP, which will also treat previously flared gas from two other fields in southern Iraq, will deliver processed gas into the national grid where it will fuel power plants with a production capacity of approximately 1.5 GW, providing electricity to 1.5 million Iraqi households. An Early Production facility to process 50 Mcf/d of associated gas will start early 202,6 together with the Ratawi phase 1 oil production.

“We are delighted today to award the two final contracts of the Gas Growth Integrated Project, in particular the seawater treatment plant which has been long awaited by the oil industry in Iraq. In less than two years since the GGIP effective date in August 2023, TotalEnergies and its partners have fully executed their commitment towards the people of Iraq and launched all projects included in the multienergy GGIP projet, the best showcase of TotalEnergies transition strategy. All these projects will bring a significant contribution to the Iraq economy and employ during the construction phase 7,000 Iraqi nationals,” said Patrick Pouyanné. “Furthermore, I am proud to confirm that the first phase of the associated gas, oil and solar projects will start-up as soon as early 2026.”