Oil price volatility complicates the mergers and acquisitions picture
The conflict in the Middle East is having a significant impact on mergers and acquisition. (Image source: Adobe Stock)
Global upstream mergers and acquisitions (M&A) activity is set to exceed last year’s US$175 billion total, with nearly US$130 billion in transactions announced as of August 2026 and a further US$137 billion in the pipeline, according to Rystad Energy
However, oil-price volatility is widening valuation expectations and making deal execution increasingly difficult.
Atul Raina, VP, oil and gas M&A said, “Oil price volatility has created a deeper opportunity set, but it has also made deals harder to execute. Sellers are looking at elevated spot prices and near-term cash flow, while buyers are underwriting against a backwardated price strip and the possibility that current conditions may not last.
"The opportunity is clearly there, but pipeline value does not automatically translate into executable deal value. Timing, transaction structure, and the willingness to bridge valuation expectations will determine whether the remainder of 2026 produces a breakout or a growing backlog."
Global upstream M&A deal value increased 55% year on year to approximately US$100 billion during the first half of 2026, with North America accounting for more than US$68 billion, or 68%, of first-half global deal value. Shale transactions represented more than US$63 billion—equivalent to 92% of North American activity and 63% of global upstream M&A. Devon Energy’s US$25.1 billion merger with Coterra Energy and Shell’s US$16.4 billion acquisition of ARC Resources together accounted for 41% of global deal value.
Middle East conflict expands the pipeline but slows down execution
The conflict in the Middle East has had a significant impact on upstream M&A. Approximately US$56 billion, or 56%, of first-half deal value was announced before the conflict began on 28 February. A further US$44 billion was announced from March through June, despite Brent averaging approximately US$99 per barrel between March and July. This is the lowest average monthly deal value since 2016 (US$10.7 billion monthly average) and 2020 (US$8.6 billion monthly average) when Brent prices averaged around US$44 per barrel around $42 per barrel, respectively.
At the same time, high but volatile prices have encouraged several E&Ps, particularly privately owned E&Ps in the US shale, to test the market, increasing the global opportunity pipeline from approximately US$98 billion before the conflict to US$137 billion currently. This volatility in prices and uncertainty around a potential resolution to the conflict also brings risks around deal execution. Rystad Energy expects buyers and sellers to respond with greater use of contingent or deferred considerations, flexible effective dates and stronger termination protections as buyers and sellers seek to share commodity-price and closing risk.
International dealmaking becomes more selective
Outside North America, first-half deal value increased 7% year on year to more than US$32 billion. South America led international activity with approximately US$13 billion, supported by consolidation in Argentina’s Vaca Muerta. Africa also recorded stronger activity as majors returned as buyers of offshore exploration positions in Angola and Namibia.
International activity is expected to remain more selective despite nearly US$52 billion of opportunities on the market. Major-led divestments and farm-downs will likely dominate as companies recycle capital, share development expenditure and reduce portfolio concentration while retaining exposure to strategically important assets.
The global M&A market therefore has sufficient opportunity depth to produce another strong year. However, it hinges on whether buyers and sellers can structure transactions that accommodate a volatile oil-price outlook and increasingly complex geopolitical risks.