US oil to surpass Russia and Saudi Arabia by 2025

35440893341 88a5d6c4f4 zThe report suggests that US liquid output is expected to surpass 24mn bpd over the next six years. (Image source: BSEE/Flickr)The US is set to produce more oil and liquids than Russia and Saudi Arabia combined by 2025, according to a report by the independent research firm Rystad Energy

In Rystad Energy’s base case oil price scenario, US liquid production is projected to exceed 24mn bpd over the next six years, outperforming the combined output from Russia and Saudi Arabia.

Rystad Energy partner Artem Abramov, said, “The United States, having regained its position as the world’s top liquids producer in 2014, is poised to accelerate into a league of its own over the next six years and eclipse the collective output of its two closest rivals by 2025.”

The US, Russia and Saudi Arabia have consistently switched places at the top of the global list of liquid producers, but the report suggests that market-driven US oil activity and production, such as the Permian in parts of Texas and New Mexico, have given the US significant momentum.

liquid production outlook by country and yearThe report stated that the US has not seen its liquids market share exceed 50 per cent among the “Big Three” producing nations since 1970.

“US growth potential could be slowed if oil prices slide below our base case for extended periods but, as long as average prices stay above US$50, positive US production tendencies will persist,” Abramov added.

“Some market participants have voiced concerns about a possible depletion in resources from core parts of major liquids basins in the US. But there are no indications that such a development will occur any time soon,” he noted.

“While Rystad Energy generally applies a conservative approach when estimating remaining drilling inventory per acreage, even in the most mature Bakken and Eagle Ford basins, about 70 per cent of economically recoverable resources in Rystad Energy’s base case oil price scenario has yet to be developed,” he concluded.

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